Date: 16/08/25 - 00:28 AM   48060 Topics and 694399 Posts

Author Topic: Bubble Watch 1-25-08  (Read 789 times)

January 25, 2008, 02:38:46 PM
Read 789 times

catsfan20052006

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http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=65

Big 12 Conference

Work left to do:

Kansas State [12-4 (3-0), RPI: 38, SOS: 34] You know what Texas A&M is doing? K-State is doing just the opposite. The Wildcats hammered the Aggies and then cruised in Boulder to stay unbeaten in league play. If they can handle Iowa State at home, they'll set up a huge game against Kansas on Wednesday. Could this be the year the Wildcats finally knock off the Jayhawks at Bramlage? A win over Cal is the best thing on their nonconference resume, stacked against losses to George Mason, Notre Dame, Oregon and Xavier, so the Wildcats will need a strong league finish. They're on their way at the moment, and the RPI and SOS improvements reflect that.

Why won't they just love us?????

:crybaby:
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January 25, 2008, 02:42:52 PM
Reply #1

Jesus Shuttlesworth

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Work left to do, and yet Joey Brackets has us IN as a #7 seed.

 :jerkoff:

Welcome back, Bill.

January 25, 2008, 02:47:58 PM
Reply #2

ksu_FAN

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Cal is turning out to be pretty bad.  aTm off to a horrid start.  OU still without their best player.  Some nice wins, and you can get in with a load of nice wins, but no signature win yet.  Just keep beating the teams "we should" and we'll be in good shape.  

We're going to have a nice RPI SOS when this is done, the way it looks now probably somewhere between #35-45, so that should help.

January 25, 2008, 03:02:11 PM
Reply #3

sys

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there's, like, 7-8 weeks left in the season, and you express surprise that there is some variance in tournament predictions?

ksu could end up anywhere from a 3-4 seed to not making the NIT, lolling at someone's brackets this early is pretty stupid, imo.
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January 25, 2008, 03:07:55 PM
Reply #4

Bullfn33

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Because of the poor noncon I agree KSU has work left.  But that doesn't mean they can't get it done if they keep playing the way they have been.  Let the games play out and KSU will be fine.  If they don't beat Kansas, they can still get quality wins against Texas, @Baylor, @Texas Tech and/or @Missouri.  10-6 and 4th in the Big 12 this year should get KSU in the tournament and I think they can get that.  Also, KSU is bound to drop a crappy performance and lose to a team like Iowa St, Nebraska, or Oklahoma State.  But as long as they finish at least 10-6 and win two road games I mentioned above or one of them plus Texas, I think they're in for sure.
Show me defense.

January 25, 2008, 03:11:37 PM
Reply #5

pufizzle

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Because of the poor noncon I agree KSU has work left.  But that doesn't mean they can't get it done if they keep playing the way they have been.  Let the games play out and KSU will be fine.  If they don't beat Kansas, they can still get quality wins against Texas, @Baylor, @Texas Tech and/or @Missouri.  10-6 and 4th in the Big 12 this year should get KSU in the tournament and I think they can get that.  Also, KSU is bound to drop a crappy performance and lose to a team like Iowa St, Nebraska, or Oklahoma State.  But as long as they finish at least 10-6 and win two road games I mentioned above or one of them plus Texas, I think they're in for sure.

Assuming we win on Saturday, and are 4-0.......going 6-6 the rest of the way would be a HUGE dissapointment imo and would probably leave us on the outside of the bubble (assuming none of the 6 wins are against ku)

January 25, 2008, 03:23:08 PM
Reply #6

Bullfn33

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Because of the poor noncon I agree KSU has work left.  But that doesn't mean they can't get it done if they keep playing the way they have been.  Let the games play out and KSU will be fine.  If they don't beat Kansas, they can still get quality wins against Texas, @Baylor, @Texas Tech and/or @Missouri.  10-6 and 4th in the Big 12 this year should get KSU in the tournament and I think they can get that.  Also, KSU is bound to drop a crappy performance and lose to a team like Iowa St, Nebraska, or Oklahoma State.  But as long as they finish at least 10-6 and win two road games I mentioned above or one of them plus Texas, I think they're in for sure.

Assuming we win on Saturday, and are 4-0.......going 6-6 the rest of the way would be a HUGE dissapointment imo and would probably leave us on the outside of the bubble (assuming none of the 6 wins are against ku)

We are on pace for finishing better than 10-6 but I'm saying what I think the minimum would be to still get in.  Finish 4th in the Big 12 with a 10-6 record with two road wins(between @Baylor, @Texas Tech, @Missouri) or Texas and one of those road games.  I think we could sneak in on the right side of the bubble with that because of the improved conference strength.  Of course, I'd much rather beat Kansas and finish 11-5 or 12-4 and leave no doubt.
Show me defense.

January 25, 2008, 03:25:44 PM
Reply #7

catsfan20052006

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I hear that there's "no way" we get left out again at 10-6. If we win tomorrow, which we should, to go to 4-0 then at a minimum I see us going 10-6. It's a real possibility that we'd end up 11-5 which would make it impossible for us to be left out.
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January 25, 2008, 03:57:15 PM
Reply #8

Jesus Shuttlesworth

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I hear that there's "no way" we get left out again at 10-6. If we win tomorrow, which we should, to go to 4-0 then at a minimum I see us going 10-6. It's a real possibility that we'd end up 11-5 which would make it impossible for us to be left out.

There is a ton of bball left.  Nobody knows if 10-6 or even 11-5 will be good enough right now.  It all depends on what everyone else does as well. 

I do know this, it is widely accepted that the Committee looks at three stretches of the season and weighs them along with RPI and SOS: Non-con, conference, and last 10 games.  Going 10-6 after starting 4-0 would mean we had a sucky non-con, average conference, and very sad last 10 games.  Not a good recipe for NCAA selection.   

I suggest we just win 'em all and pick up some league hardware along the way.
Welcome back, Bill.

January 25, 2008, 04:19:04 PM
Reply #9

CatsNShocks

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Here's my beef:
"KSU has no signature non-con wins" which is true.
But neither does ku.

So, I guess Martin and Prince need to start scheduling like Mangino and Self.
Seriously. It's working. Non-con is Non-con who gives a crap come March who you played?
Whats important is your non-con RECORD.
Play all multi-directional schools, and play them at home. Guarantee yourself 11 wins before you even start conference play.

January 25, 2008, 04:23:52 PM
Reply #10

yosh

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Here's my beef:
"KSU has no signature non-con wins" which is true.
But neither does ku.

So, I guess Martin and Prince need to start scheduling like Mangino and Self.
Seriously. It's working. Non-con is Non-con who gives a crap come March who you played?
Whats important is your non-con RECORD.
Play all multi-directional schools, and play them at home. Guarantee yourself 11 wins before you even start conference play.

LOL...ku's non con is just as hard as ours is...they just didn't lose any.
Cada hombre un gato salvaje!

January 25, 2008, 04:29:33 PM
Reply #11

ksu_FAN

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We would have to implode in FB-ish style (if not worse) not to make the NIT/CBI.  JMHO.  Not that this is on our radar, just sayin'.

January 25, 2008, 04:33:42 PM
Reply #12

cireksu

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I will be incredibly sad if we don't make the tourney(ncaa)

January 25, 2008, 04:35:24 PM
Reply #13

ksu_FAN

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Yeah, it would take pretty significant implosion not to dance.  Basically <.500 after tomorrow, assuming a win vs ISU.

January 25, 2008, 05:08:12 PM
Reply #14

doom

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Here's my beef:
"KSU has no signature non-con wins" which is true.
But neither does ku.

So, I guess Martin and Prince need to start scheduling like Mangino and Self.
Seriously. It's working. Non-con is Non-con who gives a crap come March who you played?
Whats important is your non-con RECORD.
Play all multi-directional schools, and play them at home. Guarantee yourself 11 wins before you even start conference play.

If you go undefeated then SOS means nothing, but if we lose a crap Noncon, and then go 10-6 in the season, we're out.  Our SOS is helping us right now.


I still want my cooler, bitches!

January 25, 2008, 05:53:58 PM
Reply #15

CatsNShocks

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Here's my beef:
"KSU has no signature non-con wins" which is true.
But neither does ku.

So, I guess Martin and Prince need to start scheduling like Mangino and Self.
Seriously. It's working. Non-con is Non-con who gives a crap come March who you played?
Whats important is your non-con RECORD.
Play all multi-directional schools, and play them at home. Guarantee yourself 11 wins before you even start conference play.

If you go undefeated then SOS means nothing, but if we lose a crap Noncon, and then go 10-6 in the season, we're out.  Our SOS is helping us right now.

Agreed, right now it's helping us. But isn't there a "magical" number of wins you typically need to get to to impress the selection committee? 20 wins? 22 wins?

January 25, 2008, 05:56:29 PM
Reply #16

CatsNShocks

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Here's my beef:
"KSU has no signature non-con wins" which is true.
But neither does ku.

So, I guess Martin and Prince need to start scheduling like Mangino and Self.
Seriously. It's working. Non-con is Non-con who gives a crap come March who you played?
Whats important is your non-con RECORD.
Play all multi-directional schools, and play them at home. Guarantee yourself 11 wins before you even start conference play.

LOL...ku's non con is just as hard as ours is...they just didn't lose any.

KSUs SOS: 30
kus SOS: 49
By definition, that means KSU has played tougher teams thus far.
http://sportsline.com/collegebasketball/polls/rpi/index1

January 25, 2008, 05:58:34 PM
Reply #17

ksu_FAN

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Here's my beef:
"KSU has no signature non-con wins" which is true.
But neither does ku.

So, I guess Martin and Prince need to start scheduling like Mangino and Self.
Seriously. It's working. Non-con is Non-con who gives a crap come March who you played?
Whats important is your non-con RECORD.
Play all multi-directional schools, and play them at home. Guarantee yourself 11 wins before you even start conference play.

If you go undefeated then SOS means nothing, but if we lose a crap Noncon, and then go 10-6 in the season, we're out.  Our SOS is helping us right now.

Agreed, right now it's helping us. But isn't there a "magical" number of wins you typically need to get to to impress the selection committee? 20 wins? 22 wins?

A lot of those magic numbers got thrown out last year with us and Syracuse.

However, this year should be more "conventional" should we do the same as last year.  The RPI numbers (league rating, SOS, OOC SOS) are much more in our favor if we should match last year's performance.  

January 25, 2008, 06:02:35 PM
Reply #18

cireksu

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yeah, the big 12 rpi was like 8th last year, this year it looks to be no lower than 4th.  That will make a world of difference hopefully our SOS stays top 40-50.

January 25, 2008, 06:02:56 PM
Reply #19

CatsNShocks

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Here's my beef:
"KSU has no signature non-con wins" which is true.
But neither does ku.

So, I guess Martin and Prince need to start scheduling like Mangino and Self.
Seriously. It's working. Non-con is Non-con who gives a crap come March who you played?
Whats important is your non-con RECORD.
Play all multi-directional schools, and play them at home. Guarantee yourself 11 wins before you even start conference play.

If you go undefeated then SOS means nothing, but if we lose a crap Noncon, and then go 10-6 in the season, we're out.  Our SOS is helping us right now.

Agreed, right now it's helping us. But isn't there a "magical" number of wins you typically need to get to to impress the selection committee? 20 wins? 22 wins?

A lot of those magic numbers got thrown out last year with us and Syracuse.

However, this year should be more "conventional" should we do the same as last year.  The RPI numbers (league rating, SOS, OOC SOS) are much more in our favor if we should match last year's performance.  

So just take care of business from here on out. I'm good with that.

January 25, 2008, 06:07:59 PM
Reply #20

ksu_FAN

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yeah, the big 12 rpi was like 8th last year, this year it looks to be no lower than 4th.  That will make a world of difference hopefully our SOS stays top 40-50.

Today during the outage I went through and glanced at Big 12 RPIs for the last several years.  Teams that had OOC SOS #s from the 70s-90s (like ours has fluctuated and seems to be settling at) generally finished with overall SOS #s around 35-45.  So we should be in good shape with our SOS.