Let's say for craps and giggles, that 80% of 5 yard passes are complete. This means that we have a 64% chance of making a first down after second down, and probably a 75% of getting a first down (I don't know how to figure this after .8 x .8 ). That means our drives will look like this:
1st - 75% chance of first down
2nd - 56% chance of reaching 20 yards
3rd - 42% chance of reaching 30 yards
4th - 32% chance of reaching 40 yards
5th - 24% chance of reaching 50 yards
6th - 18% chance of reaching 60 yards
Of course there are instances where the 5 yard routes reach 10 yards, or the swing routes get stuffed for no gain. Plus rushing, and the defense expecting these short passes. But let's just say it works like the way I just explained. So like they say in poker, with the strategy of way too many all-ins, "It works every time until the last time".
