September 26, 2007, 06:02:59 PM
Read 579 times
Kansas State Offense vs. Texas Defense
James Johnson is a tough runner who reads his blocks well, bursts through holes and can turn on the jets when he gets into the open field. However, there are concerns about Kansas State's ability to create seams for him. Defensive tackles Derek Lokey, Frank Okam and Roy Miller excel at controlling the three interior gaps with power and quickness, making it difficult for the center to release up to the second level. Defensive ends Lamarr Houston and Aaron Lewis use their quickness to get upfield and funnel the ball carriers inside. A linebacker corps anchored by Robert Killebrew swarms to the ball and is capable of delivering big hits. Meanwhile, the Wildcats' offensive line struggled in the season opener against Auburn before settling in against two weaker opponents. Adding to Kansas State's problems, there are questions about depth. Backup Leon Patton has had a disappointing season thus far and No. 3 Terry Petrie is a walk-on with limited experience.
Keeping all of that in mind, expect the Wildcats to supplement their ground game with a quick-hitting passing attack. Running stop-routes, quick slants, screens and flairs or plays that call for three-step drops allow quarterback Josh Freeman to get rid of the ball quickly so the protection doesn't have to hold up long. It also helps get the ball in the hands of wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Deon Murphy who are both dangerous after the catch. Kansas State has run a no-huddle offense and fans should see more of it this weekend because it gives the Wildcats the best opportunity to wear down that talented Texas front. First off, the no-huddle offense will make it harder for the Longhorns to rotate the No. 3 defensive tackle, Miller, in and out of the game. Secondly, Texas is thin at defensive end because Brian Orakpo has missed the last three games with a knee injury and Eddie Jones sustained a shoulder injury last week. Forcing Lewis and Houston to line up quickly makes it harder for them to catch their breath. This is important because Freeman is a mobile quarterback and fatigue leads to mistakes. If the ends start collapsing too far inside and/or the tackles start rushing too wide, it will create running lanes for Freeman. That said, it's essential that the Wildcats either move Freeman out of the pocket or make sure the interior pass protection is sound when they try to stretch the field vertically. Okam is a powerful bull rusher with adequate initial quickness. His ability to get push up the middle should make it difficult for Freeman to step into his throws when he stays in the pocket. If he tries to throw off his back foot, the ball will likely sail increasing the chances of an incomplete pass or turnover considerably.
Texas Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
Texas needs to keep a Kansas State run defense that is giving up an average of just 1.9 yards off balance and it can do so in a number of different ways. The first is misdirection. Running plays such as counters and draws will test the discipline of linebackers Reggie Walker, Ian Campbell, Justin Roland and Eric Childs. If they overreact to the initial action of the play, it will create a seam for running backs Jamaal Charles and Vondrell McGee and both have the explosive burst to take advantage. The second way to keep the Wildcats off balance is varying formations and the Longhorns can run out of spread sets, two tight end sets, the traditional I-formation and broken I-formations. They can run with quarterback Colt McCoy under center or lined up in shotgun formations. These different formations can create favorable blocking angles when used at the right time. More importantly, they dictate how Kansas State's defensive front will align and any mistakes will make it easier for blockers to get into position and/or the backs to get into space. Thirdly, McCoy is making sound decisions right now and can check to a quick-hitting passing play when he sees the Wildcats crowding the line of scrimmage in an effort to take away the run. There is one other note here. Charles has fumbled three times in the last two games and he isn't keeping the ball tight to his frame when he gets into space. The Wildcat defenders are well-coached and they will try to knock that ball loose when they get into gang-tackle situations so Charles must do a better job of securing the football.
McCoy is coming off his strongest game thus far and he's looking more confident throwing downfield. Of course, weapons like wide receivers Limas Sweed, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Nate Jones and Billy Pittman can make stretching the field vertically look easy. This speedy receiving corps will be working against a deep and seasoned Kansas State secondary that won't make a lot of mistakes but lacks the talent to consistently match up. Keeping that in mind, look for the Longhorns to spread the field in an effort to create favorable matchups on the outside when they need to move the ball through the air. And sound pass protection always helps a quarterback's comfort level, so Texas needs to continue to give McCoy enough time to find the open man and space to step into his throws when they attack deep. Though the Longhorns lost three All Big-12 offensive linemen to graduation last year, the line appears to be gelling and is playing well. It will need to avoid any breakdowns in communication this week because Kansas State's 3-4 front allows it to bring the fourth pass rusher from different areas of the field. The good news for the line is this game will be at home so the noise level won't be a factor. It's also worth noting that the Wildcats' defense is committing far too many costly penalties. With the Texas offense coming off an impressive performance, Kansas State cannot help the Longhorns extend drives and improve field position with mistakes, so it is essential this unit stay disciplined.
Key individual matchup
Texas WR Limas Sweed vs. Kansas State CB Justin McKinney
McKinney is instinctive, explosive and tough for his size so it won't be a walk in the park for Sweed, but he still has a clear edge here. First off, he's fast enough to get behind McKinney if McKinney lines up close to the line of scrimmage and he shows excellent body control when tracking ball downfield. If McKinney plays off the line in an effort to take away the vertical routes, it will allow Sweed to get open quickly and he is a dangerous open-field runner. Secondly, at 6-foot-4, Sweed is 7 inches taller than McKinney and he times his jumps well. Keeping that in mind, he should be able to come down with any jump balls. Thirdly, McKinney weighs 28 pounds less than Sweed, who will use that size advantage to shield McKinney from the ball. Sweed's size will also come into play when Texas runs outside, as he is capable of engulfing McKinney at the point of attack.
Special Teams
Ryan Bailey handles the place kicking duties for Texas and he has connected on 10 of his 12 field goal attempts this season. Bailey has displayed adequate leg strength with a long of 47 yards. The kickoff duties are manned by strong-legged Hunter Lawrence, who averages 64.2 yards per kickoff and already has six touchbacks in 31 attempts this season. However, Texas' kickoff coverage has been shaky this season. Punting duties are handled by Trevor Gerland, who averages 40.6 yards per attempt. It should be noted that McCoy has attempted two punts this season, both of which were placed inside the 20 -- that's two more than Gerland has placed inside that area for the year. Gerland's lack of accuracy could be a problem for the Longhorns because Kansas State has a dangerous return man in Deon Murphy. Murphy is ranked third in the country statistically with a whopping average of 20.1 yards and he also has an 80-yard return for a touchdown. With Texas fielding a very average punt coverage team this should be a key matchup.
The efficient Brook Rossman handles the field goal duties for Kansas State. He has nailed all six of his attempts, showing good range with a long of 43 yards. Rossman also handles the kickoffs, but he hasn't been as effective in that role. He averages just 59 yards attempt and has no touchbacks. The good news for Rossman is the Wildcats have a very stingy kick coverage unit that allows a mere 19 yards per attempt. Tim Reyer punts for the Wildcats and is effective averaging 44.5 yards a punt. It should also be noted Reyer is accurate pinning opponents inside the 20-yard line (six times on just 14 attempts). The athletic Cosby will attempt to attempt to break a big return versus the Wildcats' typically efficient kicking game, as he handles both kickoff and punt returns for the Longhorns.
Edge
Kansas State stunned Texas at Bill Snyder Stadium last year, but don't expect the Wildcats to make it two in a row. It's important to remember that Longhorn QB McCoy injured his shoulder running a quarterback sneak in the first quarter of that game and never returned. Backup Javon Snead completed less than half of his passes, got sacked five times and it was still just a three-point win for Kansas. Though it's obviously impossible to know whether or not a player is going to go down with an injury, McCoy is healthy now and his offensive line is starting to play like a cohesive unit. Look for him to spread the ball around to his playmakers both underneath and downfield as a result. In addition, his play will open up the running game by forcing the Wildcats' safeties to play deeper.
Prediction: Longhorns 35, Wildcats 17

Logged
It is a tragedy because now, we have at least an extra month without Cat football until next year. I hate wasting my life away but I can hardly wait until next year.