Was RP's first season win total artificially high?

[tmramrod91]

This post is assuming 90% of the people on this board read the gpc articles about the goals for this season. At any rate...
After reading all the articles with the 9 billion stats listed in the articles and all the big 12 rankings in different statistical categories (major ones, like total D and O, pass D, etc etc), I just kept thinking...how in the hell did KSU get to 7 wins last year?
They were in the top half of the leauge in: Sacks and Kickoff Returns. That is it.  A lot of the stats spouted off were quite disturbing.
I think the stats might be a tad scewed bc when ksu was good..they were good. When they were bad, they were unbelievably terrible. I know all that counts are the W's and L's, but there were some poor games played last year.

Cause for concern or just inconsistency from a first year coach and a young team?

[The Manhatter]

it's pretty simple.

Great special teams play and redzone defense.

As Keith Jackson used to say "Football is nothing more than a contest for acquisition of Real Estate".

It's not about Total offense.  If you score more on special teams or start possessions near the 50 you don't have to move it a long ways to put points on the board.

And you can give up a lot of yards but if you limit what defenses do in the redzone....fewer points.

ku didn't beat KSU because they ran for 260 yards or however many...they beat KSU because they scored two TD's defensively and had two other returns defensively that put their offense on the doorstep.

The closer a team starts its possessions to the endzone the better the chances of scoring and the better the chances of winning.

[fatty fat fat]

A bit of cause for concern. But what did you expect? Take a look at our big 12 only stats from 2005.

[The Manhatter]

and here are some numbers...

AVERAGE starting field position for KSU to open drives...

vs. Baylor - KSU 25
vs. Nebraska - KSU 24

vs. OSU - KSU 47
vs. Tejas - KSU 41

And there you have it. 

Certainly we played better in the wins but there is a reason.  If you have an opponent in bad field position it's much easier to keep them there and not allow them to do anything than if they start around midfield.

And that is why KSU..a below avg. team offensively and an average team defensively..won 7 games and finished tied for 2nd in the North.

[fatty fat fat]

AVERAGE starting field position for KSU to open drives...

vs. Baylor - KSU 25
vs. Nebraska - KSU 24

vs. OSU - KSU 47
vs. Tejas - KSU 41

It doesn't hurt that we were able to run vs OSU and UT, and didn't do sh1t on the ground vs BU and NU.

[The Manhatter]

and I'll add.  This is why people are stupid when they worry about just the offense or Freeman or the OL.  Obviously those things are important....yep.  Don't get me wrong.

But defense and special teams are what had KSU winning 11 games in 6 of 8 years or whatever it was that we did.

It's why Virginia Tech has been so good over the years.

If our defense really improves and we maintain on special teams..it won't make a bit of a difference how much better our offense is over '06..we'll win 8-9 games on those things alone and we'll pull off a victory at one of our tough road contests.

And that is why Mizzou will not win the North in '07.  They won't have a very good defense and their special teams...well, they aren't special.  

Forget about some of Mizzou's losses last year.  Look at some of their wins.  That Colorado game sticks out to me.  If Colorado had any kind of an offense they win that game in Columbia last year.  They forced Mizzou to drive the ball a long ways quite a few times and had some good special teams play.

[The Manhatter]

AVERAGE starting field position for KSU to open drives...

vs. Baylor - KSU 25
vs. Nebraska - KSU 24

vs. OSU - KSU 47
vs. Tejas - KSU 41

It doesn't hurt that we were able to run vs OSU and UT, and didn't do sh1t on the ground vs BU and NU.

We ran vs. UT?

[fatty fat fat]

No, but my point still stands.

[fatty fat fat]

But defense and special teams are what had KSU winning 11 games in 6 of 8 years or whatever it was that we did.

It's not "whatever." It was 6/7 years. Jesus &@#%.

Anyway, from 01-03, despite winning 27 games, our special teams pretty much blew ass.

[The Manhatter]

No, but my point still stands.

and if we started from near midfield we prolly beat Baylor.

[tmramrod91]

and I'll add.  This is why people are stupid when they worry about just the offense or Freeman or the OL.  Obviously those things are important....yep.  Don't get me wrong.

But defense and special teams are what had KSU winning 11 games in 6 of 8 years or whatever it was that we did.

It's why Virginia Tech has been so good over the years.

If our defense really improves and we maintain on special teams..it won't make a bit of a difference how much better our offense is over '06..we'll win 8-9 games on those things alone and we'll pull off a victory at one of our tough road contests.

Totally agree with you on the D and special teams being the #1 determinant in CFB success. I mean KSU won 9 games with Brian freakin Kavanaugh at qb.
But you cannot say the  D was exactly "salty" last year. They got blown out of the water by: Baylor, NU, ku (starting field position dually noted), OSU, Mizzou, UT, Rutgers. UL they held their own...kinda.
I think the D this year has a lot of potential. I also think the D line and LB are a big concern.
Offense does play a key role in field position, even more so than ST from time to time.

[The Manhatter]

But defense and special teams are what had KSU winning 11 games in 6 of 8 years or whatever it was that we did.

It's not "whatever." It was 6/7 years. Jesus &*$@!.

Anyway, from 01-03, despite winning 27 games, our special teams pretty much blew ass.

KSU NCAA rankings special teams '01-'03

Punt Returns
'01: 32
'02: 18
'03: 34

Net Punting
'01: 42
'02: 16
'03: 28

Kickoff Returns
'01: 11
'02: 24
'03: 36

Kickoff Return Yardage Defense
'01: 14
'02: 26
'03: 85

Punt Return Yardage Defense
'01: 48
'02: 3
'03: 11

The numbers disagree w/ you for the most part.  If you're consistently in the top 30% in each of the areas then you have pretty damn good special teams play.

[fatty fat fat]

No #'s on FG's? No mention of the numerous kicks we had blocked that got 6'ed back?

 

[The Manhatter]

Totally agree with you on the D and special teams being the #1 determinant in CFB success. I mean KSU won 9 games with Brian freakin Kavanaugh at qb.
But you cannot say the  D was exactly "salty" last year. They got blown out of the water by: Baylor, NU, ku (starting field position dually noted), OSU, Mizzou, UT, Rutgers. UL they held their own...kinda.
I think the D this year has a lot of potential. I also think the D line and LB are a big concern.
Offense does play a key role in field position, even more so than ST from time to time.

Baylor and NU's offense "blew is out of the water"?  LOL.  
And if we "held our own" vs. Louisville then what did we do against OSU?  We held them well below their avg. numbers offensively.  An offense like that is extremely tough to hold to 330 yards or whatever we gave up...and they got about 40 of that w/ under a minute to play.

[fatty fat fat]

The defense fell apart in Columbia. Raheem quit trying.

[The Manhatter]

No #'s on FG's? No mention of the numerous kicks we had blocked that got 6'ed back?

 

oops, 1 outa 6 special teams categories was really bad in '01 and '02...how 'bout that?

LOL at some of those circus events w/ '01 placekicking unit.  That long snap on the FG attempt at Iowa State was one of the funniest things I've ever seen(since we won handily).

[fatty fat fat]

LOL at some of those circus events w/ '01 placekicking unit.  That long snap on the FG attempt at Iowa State was one of the funniest things I've ever seen(since we won handily).

How smooth was that Roberson-Lloyd hook-up? Everyone there was like "wtf! We passed for a TD! YeS!"

 

[The Manhatter]

LOL at some of those circus events w/ '01 placekicking unit.  That long snap on the FG attempt at Iowa State was one of the funniest things I've ever seen(since we won handily).

How smooth was that Roberson-Lloyd hook-up? Everyone there was like "wtf! We passed for a TD! YeS!"

 

Nobody was as surprised as Ricky Lloyd.  Thank god ISU rush defense was suspect.

A 42-3 domination in that game was something I did not see coming.  I remember how depressed their p-b-p announcer was after that one.  You could just feel the pain in his voice.  They truly thought they were going to get us.  Bet '04 and '05 felt pretty good. 

[fatty fat fat]

Man. We used to just murder teams. Even when we went 6-6.


I was there in 05. 

[The Manhatter]

Man. We used to just murder teams. Even when we went 6-6.


I was there in 05. 

lol at Handy and Bedore in that game.  Well..lol at Handy in every game.

Have you ever just watched the OL on playbacks...Handy leaks all game long.  The sad thing is he is prolly the hardest worker and attitude and all of those intangible things..he just doesn't have the talent to play at this level. 

[fatty fat fat]

Oh man, do you remember our TD right before half? We were at about the 3 yard line and it took us about 8 shots before we finally got in. I remember thinking, "yah! only 17-10 at half!"

   

[The Manhatter]

Oh man, do you remember our TD right before half? We were at about the 3 yard line and it took us about 8 shots before we finally got in. I remember thinking, "yah! only 17-10 at half!"

   

But to be fair to our guys ISU had a pretty good defense in '05.  They ranked near the top of the Big 12 in a lot of areas defensively.

Good players..Berryman...two solid DT's...good LB's...good secondary w/ experience.

But still...

[mjrod]

AVERAGE starting field position for KSU to open drives...

vs. Baylor - KSU 25
vs. Nebraska - KSU 24

vs. OSU - KSU 47
vs. Tejas - KSU 41

It doesn't hurt that we were able to run vs OSU and UT, and didn't do sh1t on the ground vs BU and NU.

We ran vs. UT?

I remember two running touchdowns.

[fb]

I think people are severely underestimating the loss of Snodgrass.  Kid outstanding in the UT game when it counted. 

Figurs was also nails when we needed a big return or for a WR to stretch a defense.  God I would have loved to see Figurs play against the beaks.  Even if someone wants to call him a marginal football player, he was the fastest fella at the NFL combine.  You don't just replace that with ease.  Plus with Murphy still in limbo, Johnson is going to be asked to return more kicks possibly and hopefully that doesn't take away from his contributions on offense.  Heck, just look at Dante Hall's production dropoff when KC asked more of him.  Come on Deon, get it done in the classroom son!

People talk about Archer missing tackles, but he and Diles sure seemed to make some key sticks in the red zone.  I am mildly scared of what Roland will do in similar situations.  That kid seemed so out of control all the time last year.  (fingers crossed that he will be a much smarter player)

[mjrod]

But defense and special teams are what had KSU winning 11 games in 6 of 8 years or whatever it was that we did.

It's not "whatever." It was 6/7 years. Jesus &*$@!.

Anyway, from 01-03, despite winning 27 games, our special teams pretty much blew ass.

KSU NCAA rankings special teams '01-'03

Punt Returns
'01: 32
'02: 18
'03: 34

Net Punting
'01: 42
'02: 16
'03: 28

Kickoff Returns
'01: 11
'02: 24
'03: 36

Kickoff Return Yardage Defense
'01: 14
'02: 26
'03: 85

Punt Return Yardage Defense
'01: 48
'02: 3
'03: 11

The numbers disagree w/ you for the most part.  If you're consistently in the top 30% in each of the areas then you have pretty damn good special teams play.

Man, what I wouldn't have given to see Terry Pierce stay another year.

[opcat]

I don't think it's sound logic to just want defense to be good if you want to win it all.

You have to score. Scoring puts pressure on other teams to score. This is USC's real strength.   Florida and Oh.St could also  score points.  Most good teams have good offenses.

But yeah, D is very important but you can lose a low scoring game because of poor offense.

[mjrod]

IMO, having a strong defense does a lot better for your offense because having a strong defense keeps their offense off the field and doesn't allow them to get into a rhythm.   If they have a decent defense, eventually, you'll start finding ways to start moving the ball.

If you watch Snyder's teams in the late 90's stiffling defense did a lot to help out the offense.  See 1999 season for proof.  KSU's offense was very inconsistent, but the defense was stifling and allowed the offense to get into rhythm.

[tmramrod91]

IMO, having a strong defense does a lot better for your offense because having a strong defense keeps their offense off the field and doesn't allow them to get into a rhythm.   If they have a decent defense, eventually, you'll start finding ways to start moving the ball.

If you watch Snyder's teams in the late 90's stiffling defense did a lot to help out the offense.  See 1999 season for proof.  KSU's offense was very inconsistent, but the defense was stifling and allowed the offense to get into rhythm.

Exactly

[The Manhatter]

I don't think it's sound logic to just want defense to be good if you want to win it all.

You have to score. Scoring puts pressure on other teams to score. This is USC's real strength.   Florida and Oh.St could also  score points.  Most good teams have good offenses.

But yeah, D is very important but you can lose a low scoring game because of poor offense.

And who said they wanted "just wanted a defense to be good"?  Nobody.

I did state that have a very good defense is FAR more important than having a good offense.

Quick, name the national champs that had a GREAT offense but a poor defense.....you can't.

Now name the national champs who had a GREAT defense but a so so offense....you can start rattling off some names.  Florida this past year..Ohio State in '02.

But the one key thing all national champs have is good defenses...all of them.  Some of them have not so good offenses.

Like I said...we could make marginal improvements offensively over last year but if our special teams is about the same and our defense is very good then you can take it to the bank that we'll win 8-9 games.

Auburn had a below avg. offense last year...but their defense was amazing. 

[fatty fat fat]

Oh man, do you remember our TD right before half? We were at about the 3 yard line and it took us about 8 shots before we finally got in. I remember thinking, "yah! only 17-10 at half!"

   

But to be fair to our guys ISU had a pretty good defense in '05.  They ranked near the top of the Big 12 in a lot of areas defensively.

Good players..Berryman...two solid DT's...good LB's...good secondary w/ experience.

But still...

LOL@ISU blowing it in 05. They were somewhat legit...at least much better than CU.