Would this work (online sports betting)

[ksuno1stunner]

I don't know anything about gambling.  Bet like $10 on a game.  Lose, I'm down $10.  Bet $20 on another game.  Lose, and then I'm down $30.  Bet $40 on another game.  This time, win, and I end up $10 richer.  I probably wouldn't have to get a summer job then.  I'm thinking of doing this, but like with millions of dollars.  Is there something that would prevent this from happening?  This probably isn't a revolutionary idea.  If I was like betting on baseball, I'd always eventually win.

[pufizzle]

"I'll eventually win!"

Famous last words.  Don't do it man.  Myself, and a lot of my friends have lost a LOT of money through betting.  What happens if you lose 5 games in a row?  You would be betting 620 bucks on that sixth game to get back to even.  What happens if you lose that game?  All of a sudden you are betting almost 1,300 dollars on one game.  People who haven't bet before think that it is easy money.  I have a friend who is working this entire summer for free for his bookie to pay off the debt.  Better that than a couple fingers I guess........

[Trim]

Is there something that would prevent this from happening? 

Yeah, you have to deposit the money up front.

[ksuno1stunner]

"I'll eventually win!"

Famous last words.  Don't do it man.  Myself, and a lot of my friends have lost a LOT of money through betting.  What happens if you lose 5 games in a row?  You would be betting 620 bucks on that sixth game to get back to even.  What happens if you lose that game?  All of a sudden you are betting almost 1,300 dollars on one game.  People who haven't bet before think that it is easy money.  I have a friend who is working this entire summer for free for his bookie to pay off the debt.  Better that than a couple fingers I guess........

I'm pretty sure I can eventually pick the winner of a baseball game after 10 or so tries.  Once that happens, I'll be in the positives again.

[Kat Kid]

Of course it works.  If you have $600 why bother?

The problem is that it isn't a $600 wager for $1200 return.  There is either an extra percentage taken when you lose or a percentage subtracted on your winnings or odds.

so it might be $600 to win $1000 or $1100.  The point is, it works, but over the long run even if you are successful 51-52% of the time you will lose money because of the bookie/casino's profit margin.  I'm not sure exactly what the percentages are on online betting.

[Trim]

Also, baseball betting is wierd - money lines, etc.

[ksuno1stunner]

Of course it works.  If you have $600 why bother?

The problem is that it isn't a $600 wager for $1200 return.  There is either an extra percentage taken when you lose or a percentage subtracted on your winnings or odds.

so it might be $600 to win $1000 or $1100.  The point is, it works, but over the long run even if you are successful 51-52% of the time you will lose money because of the bookie/casino's profit margin.  I'm not sure exactly what the percentages are on online betting.

Hmmm...I will figure this out!

Assuming that you don't win as much money as you put in, AND you lose more than you put in.
Bet $100.  Lose.  -$120.
Bet $220.  Lose.  -$264.
Bet $364.  Lose.  -$437.
Bet $537.  Lose.  -$644.
Bet $744.  Lose.  -$893.
Bet $993.  Win.  +$80.
Repeat from the top.

I don't see how I can lose, if I increase how much I bet every time.

*crap, I forgot to add my losses together.

[ksuno1stunner]

One more time.

Bet $100.  Lose.  -$120.
Bet $220.  Lose.  -$384.
Bet $484.  Lose.  -$965.
Bet $1065.  Lose.  -$2243.
Bet $2343.  Win.  +$80.
Repeat from the top.

True, that's a lot of money to risk for 80 bucks, but it will be rare to miss 5 straight games.  I'd also end up winning money.

[ksuno1stunner]

OK, also forgot to factor in that betting $2343 will mean I only get $1874, so I'd have to bet 20% + 100 more than my losses.

[pufizzle]

One more time.

Bet $100.  Lose.  -$120.
Bet $220.  Lose.  -$384.
Bet $484.  Lose.  -$965.
Bet $1065.  Lose.  -$2243.
Bet $2343.  Win.  +$80.
Repeat from the top.

True, that's a lot of money to risk for 80 bucks, but it will be rare to miss 5 straight games.  I'd also end up winning money.

Oh God it's like I'm re-living a nightmare..........

[ksuno1stunner]

One more time.

Bet $100.  Lose.  -$120.
Bet $220.  Lose.  -$384.
Bet $484.  Lose.  -$965.
Bet $1065.  Lose.  -$2243.
Bet $2343.  Win.  +$80.
Repeat from the top.

True, that's a lot of money to risk for 80 bucks, but it will be rare to miss 5 straight games.  I'd also end up winning money.

Oh God it's like I'm re-living a nightmare..........

What was your strategy?  Doesn't it seem like I'd eventually be on the positive side?  Did I miss anything?  I'm just curious, that's all.

[doom]

Real bookies make their money on late payments than on the bets themselves.  Where you'll lose your money is the time where you make a bet to cover a loss that you really didn't have the money to cover it just because you got down more than you wanted to be.  Then they tax you.  Unless you have Biff Tannen's sports almanac I would advise against it.

[ksuno1stunner]

Real bookies make their money on late payments than on the bets themselves.  Where you'll lose your money is the time where you make a bet to cover a loss that you really didn't have the money to cover it just because you got down more than you wanted to be.  Then they tax you.  Unless you have Biff Tannen's sports almanac I would advise against it.

What if I did pay in time though...

[waks]

I thought you were smarter than this..

[ksuno1stunner]

I thought you were smarter than this..

 

[Trim]

Even with your bets all at +110, which they're not in baseball, in your above example you put up approx. $4000.  You're betting online so all the talk about paying on time and bookies is moot - you have to have the funds deposited in advance to make the bets.

If you've got $4000 to deposit into a south american gambling account, you probably don't need a summer job that bad.

[ChicoRodriguez]

 

[pufizzle]

Stunner here's your problem....

If you are wanting to make 10 dollar bets so you can try and make 20-30 bucks a week, you are going to have to do it online, somewhere like bodog.com.  Bookie's won't take bets smaller than 20, sometimes even 50.  As was stated earlier, you have to deposit the money prior to making the bets.  The only problem is, you can deposit in a matter of seconds, but if you want to cash out any of your winnings, it takes around 2-3 weeks to show in your bank account. 

There are professional handicapper's that get paid thousands of dollars to pick 60% winners.  If you win 55% of your bets on your own (which would be really good without the help of a handicapper) you still wouldn't make much of anything because of the 10% charge on the winnings/losings. 

Your best bet would be to pick a stud pitcher and just bet his games every 5th day.  (Halladay, Santana, Smoltz, Beckett etc...)  When those guys are pitching, most of the time the line will be their respective team -1.5  Which means their team would have to win by at least 2 runs for you to win.  The payout is much better if you choose this, but also riskier.  You can also just do the money line for the pitcher's games.  That way, the team would only have to win for you to win.  The payout is less but it is less risky. 

Alright, that was a lot of 

My advice.......put 500 bux down on one game and get wasted and enjoy.   

[pufizzle]

Al Pacino said it best in Two For The Money......

"We're all lemons. We look like everyone else, but what makes us different is our defect. See, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win. When we go to gamble, we go to lose. Subconsciously. Me, I never feel better than when they're raking the chips away; not bringing them in. And everyone here knows what I'm talking about. Hell, even when we win it's just a matter of time before we give it all back. But when we lose, that's another story. When we lose, and I'm talking about the kind of loss that makes your butthole pucker to the size of a decimal point - you know what I mean - You've just recreated the worst possible nightmare this side of malignant cancer, for the twentieth damn time; and you're standing there and you suddenly realize, Hey, I'm still... here. I'm still breathing. I'm still alive. Us lemons, we &@#% stuff up all the time on purpose. Because we constantly need to remind ourselves we're alive. Gambling's not your problem. It's this &@#%ed up need to feel something. To convince yourself you exist. That's the problem."

[ksuno1stunner]

PM

I feel so dumb.

[ksuno1stunner]

My dad mentioned this being "Bernoulli's game".

Interesting stuff.  Almost have the formula figured out.  I will test it with mock bets and prove you all wrong.

I hope.

[waks]

Your dad is a pretty cool gentleman from what I remember.

[ksuno1stunner]

Your dad is a pretty cool gentleman from what I remember.

Smart guy.  Smarter than I'll ever be.

[prome05]

I don't know anything about gambling.  Bet like $10 on a game.  Lose, I'm down $10.  Bet $20 on another game.  Lose, and then I'm down $30.  Bet $40 on another game.  This time, win, and I end up $10 richer.  I probably wouldn't have to get a summer job then.  I'm thinking of doing this, but like with millions of dollars.  Is there something that would prevent this from happening?  This probably isn't a revolutionary idea.  If I was like betting on baseball, I'd always eventually win.

This strategy is called "Chasing your losses".

From BetUS.com:

3. Don't chase your losses

When you do run into the inevitable losing streak, don't panic and make the common mistake of betting larger amounts in an attempt to recoup your losses. Instead, examine your handicapping methods and reduce your betting amounts until you start winning again. Remember - chasing your losses is the single biggest mistake a gambler can make. Once you start winning again, increase your bets slightly, but don't go overboard. Unfortunately, like losing streaks, winning streaks also come to an end.

[doom]

But all I have to do is bet another million dollars or two to get what I lost!  Back off!

[ksuno1stunner]

You guys just watch.

[michigancat]

Go for it, stunna!

[WildWillie21]

Start off with the Royals tonight.

Cleveland. -1.5
P. Fausto Carmona

Royals. +1.5
P. Odalis Perez

[WildWillie21]

Start off with the Royals tonight.

Cleveland. -1.5
P. Fausto Carmona

Royals. +1.5
P. Odalis Perez

Nevermind. He's 5-1 with a 2.55 Era.

[doom]

Just as long as Waks doesn't do it.  That guy owes me $50.