The Royals

[420seriouscat69]

IRL Q: have you watched Eric Hosmer bat?

Are we discussing his long ass swing that will deter with age?

[Cartierfor3]

More discussing his inability to elevate the ball. So, kind of

[mocat]

deter with age?

what does that mean

[mocat]

IRL Q: have you watched Eric Hosmer bat?

yep

[420seriouscat69]

As he ages, that long ass swing of his will hurt him. He won't have the quick twitch muscles he has now that makes up for it.

[meow meow]

what year do you lose the quick twitch muscles?

[Rage Against the McKee]

what year do you lose the quick twitch muscles?

Your muscles change every 7 years.

[Pete]

http://kansascity.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/18/struggles-come-early-and-often-for-hosmer/

His current ground ball rate can be dismissed as a small sample size. Batted ball rates such as grounders and fly balls generally normalize around 80 balls in play.  We’re about halfway there for Hosmer

Looks like we'll find out if Mocat is right, or if the guy who has stuff published in the baseball prospectus is right.  Time will tell.  The good news for us mystery fans is that we won't have to wait much longer.  Should know by mid May if we officially have a dog crap clean up batter.  go cats

[wetwillie]

[Cartierfor3]

IRL Q: have you watched Eric Hosmer bat?

yep

and you still think concerns about his production are laughable?

[mocat]

IRL Q: have you watched Eric Hosmer bat?

yep

and you still think concerns about his production are laughable?

it's a pile of garbage because the premise is that 12 games in 2017 makes the cool 2nd half of 2016 a career-defining trend. why didn't they write this at the end of 2016?

[yoga-like_abana]

what year do you lose the quick twitch muscles?

Your muscles change every 7 years.

when does that ridiculous old man strength kick in?

[mocat]

IRL Q: have you watched Eric Hosmer bat?

yep

and you still think concerns about his production are laughable?

it's a pile of garbage because the premise is that 12 games in 2017 makes the cool 2nd half of 2016 a career-defining trend. why didn't they write this at the end of 2016?

of course his ground ball rate is concerning, but the 12 games so far in 2017 should be irrelevant, and yet that whole article was based on them.

i mean, in the first 9 games of september (WHICH IS LAST MONTH) he hit .375 with 4 home runs and walked 6 times. did that mean he had it all figured out but completely lost it again? 

[Rage Against the McKee]

what year do you lose the quick twitch muscles?

Your muscles change every 7 years.

when does that ridiculous old man strength kick in?

49

[8manpick]

IRL Q: have you watched Eric Hosmer bat?

yep

and you still think concerns about his production are laughable?

it's a pile of garbage because the premise is that 12 games in 2017 makes the cool 2nd half of 2016 a career-defining trend. why didn't they write this at the end of 2016?

of course his ground ball rate is concerning, but the 12 games so far in 2017 should be irrelevant, and yet that whole article was based on them.

i mean, in the first 9 games of september (WHICH IS LAST MONTH) he hit .375 with 4 home runs and walked 6 times. did that mean he had it all figured out but completely lost it again? 

But the ground ball rate has been a known problem for a long time...

From this spring
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-hosmer-is-an-historical-anomaly/

Hosmer, though, is coming off the kind of year that doesn’t offer much in the way of optimism. Sure, he set a career high in home runs with 25, but he also posted the highest groundball rate of his career, which is bad for sustained power. And more worryingly, Hosmer’s contact rate did this.

Jeff is right that Hosmer has the look of a guy who could experience a huge offensive breakout if he just fixed his launch angle and started hitting the ball in the air with regularity. If you need an example of a guy who figured it out in his mid-20s, Eric Karros works pretty well; he was worth +1 WAR from 23-26, then had a +4.5 WAR season at age-27 as part of a five year run where he became one of the best hitters in baseball.

But even Karros was basically done as a good player by age-31, which would be year four of a free agent contract if Hosmer didn’t sign until after this coming season. And that’s the optimistic comparison, based on looking for a guy who had a Hosmer-ish track from 24-26 and then turned into something better. There are a lot more Casey Kotchmans and James Loneys hanging around the similar players list, guys who never developed the hoped-for power, and no amount of first base defense could save their careers.

Of course, those guys didn’t have the tools that exist today. The fact that Hosmer does hit the ball hard, and has done so while making above-average contact for most of his career, does suggest that there’s probably more offensive talent in there than his performance would suggest. And with advances in player development, perhaps its more likely that Hosmer becomes something more than he has been than similar players from history.

But if you’re looking at baseball’s record book for a guy like Hosmer to take encouragement from, well, good luck. Very few first baseman have been able to hold regular jobs for this long, at this age, while hitting as poorly as Hosmer has. Very few first baseman who were slightly-above-average hitters from 24-26 turned into great hitters later on.

Hosmer might have the swing and the batted ball potential of a star, but to this point, he has the performance record of a part-time player, or if you think his defense is being wildly underrated, then that of an average player who should probably still sit against some lefties. Eric Hosmer is different in skillset but roughly similar in value to Mark Trumbo, who got 3/$37.5M as a free agent this winter, and was almost non-tendered a year ago.

If the Royals see Hosmer as a franchise player, well, they better hope they know how to get him to lift the ball, and become something he hasn’t been to this point. Because right now, Hosmer is an historical anomaly, since first baseman who hit like this usually get replaced by someone better.

From Oct 2014
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/eric-hosmer-power-hitter-kansas-city-royals-world-series-102714

The problem with putting too much stock in this tiny stretch of great play is the not-insignificant memory of 2,200 league average plate appearances. Swing changes and adjustments to approach are well and good, but there is a very large pile of evidence that suggests we already know what kind of production we can expect from the big left-handed hitter.

Many hitters better than Hosmer needed such an adjustment to unlock the true potential of their bat. Especially in today’?s velocity-rich world, the ability to be "?on time"? cannot be overstated. Hosmer references great hitters like Jose Abreu and Miguel Cabrera for their great timing and knack for loading their swing early so that they’re ready to "attack the baseball."

His career numbers to date make for strange bedfellows indeed. It turns out Hosmer does have a lot in common with Cabrera: Melky, that is. During the wild-card era, the list of players of a similar age (age 24 and under) with similar walk and strikeout rates (below average for both) who don’?t produce much power AND hit the ball on the ground as frequently as Hosmer (more than 50% of balls in play for his career) is a mix of middle infielders (Jose Altuve and Elvis Andrus, to name a few) and one very conspicuous name: Billy Butler.

Ground ball rate leaderboard from 2015-2017, full of average to bad hitters.  Not full of 1b and clean up hitters.
1   Howie Kendrick
2   Christian Yelich
3   Dee Gordon
4   David Freese
5   Yunel Escobar
6   Jean Segura
7   Eric Hosmer
8   Ben Revere
9   Andrelton Simmons
10   Wilson Ramos

[Cartierfor3]

mocat what are your expectations from Eric Hosmer this season

[mocat]

mocat what are your expectations from Eric Hosmer this season

.276/.334/.426, 19 HR, 86 RBI

[wetwillie]

Elevated the ball against Cueto on his way to the All Star Game MVP

[Cartierfor3]

mocat what are your expectations from Eric Hosmer this season

.276/.334/.426, 19 HR, 86 RBI

that's p bad for a cleanup hitter. those should be Gordon's stats

[8manpick]

mocat what are your expectations from Eric Hosmer this season

.276/.334/.426, 19 HR, 86 RBI

that's p bad for a cleanup hitter. those should be Gordon's stats

That would be terrible for an MLB first baseman

[mocat]

mocat what are your expectations from Eric Hosmer this season

.276/.334/.426, 19 HR, 86 RBI

that's p bad for a cleanup hitter. those should be Gordon's stats

those are his 162-game career averages

[mocat]

mocat what are your expectations from Eric Hosmer this season

.276/.334/.426, 19 HR, 86 RBI

that's p bad for a cleanup hitter. those should be Gordon's stats

expectations for gordon this year:

.000/.500/.000, 0 HR, 300 K's, 300 BB's

[Cartierfor3]

@Wacky Whit is back up.

[420seriouscat69]

   Saw that. Starting in RF tonight. 

[Cartierfor3]

He's your classic first one to get there last one to leave type. Like having another coach out there.