Author Topic: The Royals  (Read 5795302 times)

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Offline Canary

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43275 on: August 12, 2015, 08:24:18 PM »
Hud drives me crazy, but I think he's good for the broadcast anyway. 

Offline bones129

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43276 on: August 12, 2015, 08:24:47 PM »
it doesn't have to be one or the other.
agreed

Don't think Ryan deserves to be dumped. Phys does deserve it.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43277 on: August 12, 2015, 08:25:00 PM »
Anyone still worried about Esky's speed?

yes.  the steals tell the story.  being good at sliding doesn't change anything.

I think this year says more about the value of steals than anything. The past two years the Royals had to do more creative stuff to score runs, including steals, bunts, etc. During 13 and 14 we only had 1 guy hit over .800 OPS, Hosmer's .801 in 13. Last year Gordon led with .783.

Most of this year we've had 3 .800+ OPS hitters (Cain .882, Hosmer .855, Morales .811) and with Zobey (.818) we now have 4. That's a ton more offense and guys being able to drive in runs and as a result our offense is way better in nearly every category. If steals are down but we are clearly a better offense because we have guys actually hitting the ball consistently I am not going to complain.

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43278 on: August 12, 2015, 08:28:06 PM »
Anyone still worried about Esky's speed?

yes.  the steals tell the story.  being good at sliding doesn't change anything.

I think this year says more about the value of steals than anything. The past two years the Royals had to do more creative stuff to score runs, including steals, bunts, etc. During 13 and 14 we only had 1 guy hit over .800 OPS, Hosmer's .801 in 13. Last year Gordon led with .783.

Most of this year we've had 3 .800+ OPS hitters (Cain .882, Hosmer .855, Morales .811) and with Zobey (.818) we now have 4. That's a ton more offense and guys being able to drive in runs and as a result our offense is way better in nearly every category. If steals are down but we are clearly a better offense because we have guys actually hitting the ball consistently I am not going to complain.
Interesting perspective.

Offline TownieCat

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43279 on: August 12, 2015, 08:29:34 PM »
Esky's advanced baserunning stats suggest he's just fine.

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43280 on: August 12, 2015, 08:29:42 PM »
no bootleg stream tonight so i have gamecast going but it seems like we are doing ok

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43281 on: August 12, 2015, 08:31:15 PM »
no bootleg stream tonight so i have gamecast going but it seems like we are doing ok
Would be a fun game to be at tonight. 

Offline sys

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43282 on: August 12, 2015, 08:33:51 PM »
I think this year says more about the value of steals than anything...

the only guy stealing less is esky.  cain and dyson are stealing as much, maybe a little more.  it's clearly an escobar issue, not a change in philosophy.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline sys

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43283 on: August 12, 2015, 08:38:04 PM »
Esky's advanced baserunning stats suggest he's just fine.

if he was fine, he would be stealing.  obviously he's healthy/fast enough that he can still play or he wouldn't be playing.  and as long as he's playing he's going to be a good baserunner, because he's really good at all of baseball (except hitting).  he's just not able to steal as well as he could for every other year that he's ever played, for some reason.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43284 on: August 12, 2015, 08:44:36 PM »

I think this year says more about the value of steals than anything...

the only guy stealing less is esky.  cain and dyson are stealing as much, maybe a little more.  it's clearly an escobar issue, not a change in philosophy.

.634 steals per game this year as a team.

.944 last year.

Seems like a change to me.

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43285 on: August 12, 2015, 08:46:24 PM »

I think this year says more about the value of steals than anything...

the only guy stealing less is esky.  cain and dyson are stealing as much, maybe a little more.  it's clearly an escobar issue, not a change in philosophy.

.634 steals per game this year as a team.

.944 last year.

Seems like a change to me.
That's kind of what the math says. 

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43286 on: August 12, 2015, 08:46:45 PM »
yeah, i could have told you that without stats, but stats help cement a thought

Offline bones129

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43287 on: August 12, 2015, 08:46:49 PM »
I think Ausmus forgot to take Norris out. Been a long season

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43288 on: August 12, 2015, 08:49:27 PM »
FWIW, I think Dyson and Cain are simply superior athletes, so they still have the green light. The Roys just scaled back everyone else because we have better hitters. JMHO.

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43289 on: August 12, 2015, 08:50:17 PM »
FWIW, I think Dyson and Cain are simply superior athletes, so they still have the green light. The Roys just scaled back everyone else because we have better hitters. JMHO.

i think it is 100% this

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43290 on: August 12, 2015, 08:50:38 PM »
we havent needed the extra base to score runs, for the most part

Offline sys

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43291 on: August 12, 2015, 08:55:02 PM »

I think this year says more about the value of steals than anything...

the only guy stealing less is esky.  cain and dyson are stealing as much, maybe a little more.  it's clearly an escobar issue, not a change in philosophy.

.634 steals per game this year as a team.

.944 last year.

Seems like a change to me.

i went through this yesterday or the day before.  pretty much 100% of the difference is explained by dyson getting less game time, aoki not being here and esky not stealing as frequently (or as successfully).  very minor effects of gordon not running as much and then getting hurt.  i suppose you could add in gore not being called up yet to the list of minor effects.

the meat of the data is that this year the royals have three guys that throughout their careers have stolen bases frequently and at high rates of success (not including rios, because he's way older than when he stole frequently).  of those three, dyson and cain are stealing as much or maybe slightly more often.  only escobar is stealing dramatically less frequently.  and when he does try to steal, he hasn't been very successful (career cs w. royals before this year - 15%, this year - 33%).  obviously getting caught twice as much (despite attempting to steal about half as often, so presumably picking easier opportunities) is indicative of an issue with his ability to steal, not a change in philosophy.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43292 on: August 12, 2015, 08:56:12 PM »
we havent needed the extra base to score runs, for the most part
That is kind of the difference for me this year.  Last year I just hoped we could get an extra base to get into scoring position, and even counted on bad pitches to score.  This year it just feels like we are able to score off the bats, not the steals. 

Offline sys

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43293 on: August 12, 2015, 08:58:40 PM »
FWIW, I think Dyson and Cain are simply superior athletes, so they still have the green light. The Roys just scaled back everyone else because we have better hitters. JMHO.

i think it is 100% this

up until this year, escobar has attempted to steal more frequently, and has stolen more successfully than cain.  obviously, dyson is a notch above either of them as a base stealer.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline kso_FAN

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The Royals
« Reply #43294 on: August 12, 2015, 08:58:47 PM »
We still have 2 great base stealers, we clearly don't have to steal as much. I can't see it as anything except a change in organizational philosophy. If stealing bases was still as valuable, Dyson would play more and we'd have other guys trying to steal more bases.

Offline sys

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43295 on: August 12, 2015, 09:05:38 PM »
We still have 2 great base stealers, we clearly don't have to steal as much. I can't see it as anything except a change in organizational philosophy. If stealing bases was still as valuable, Dyson would play more and we'd have other guys trying to steal more bases.

yeah, dyson is also a much better defender than the guys that play.  obviously an organizational change in philosophy on the value of defense.

give me a rough ridin' break.  one player suddenly stops stealing successfully while the others continue stealing unchanged and it's a change in philosophy vs a player specific issue.  that is asinine.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline kso_FAN

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The Royals
« Reply #43296 on: August 12, 2015, 09:06:41 PM »
We still have 2 great base stealers, we clearly don't have to steal as much. I can't see it as anything except a change in organizational philosophy. If stealing bases was still as valuable, Dyson would play more and we'd have other guys trying to steal more bases.

yeah, dyson is also a much better defender than the guys that play.  obviously an organizational change in philosophy on the value of defense.

give me a rough ridin' break.  one player suddenly stops stealing successfully while the others continue stealing unchanged and it's a change in philosophy vs a player specific issue.  that is asinine.

I don't agree and I won't. It's all good though. #1Royal

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43297 on: August 12, 2015, 09:06:58 PM »
Hard to believe he's only averaging about 14 pitches an inning tonight. 

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43298 on: August 12, 2015, 09:07:21 PM »
careful _FAN, you will be #1Fan soon

Offline sys

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Re: The Royals
« Reply #43299 on: August 12, 2015, 09:08:08 PM »
I don't agree and I won't. It's all good though. #1Royal

ok, defend your position.  why is esky getting caught at twice the rate he was in previous years?
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."