Longish post, Cliff's at the bottom.
Detroit is playing three games above their peripherals. Their actual W-L of 48-35 with a run differential of +33 through 83 games is a full 36 percentage points better than their expected W-L of 45-38.
This might not seem like a lot, but they are one of only 6 AL teams to outperform their expected W-L thus far. Detroit is one of two teams — New York being the other — to outpace their peripherals by more than one game. The Yankees are actually the most "overachieving" club in the league outpacing their expected W-L by four games for a 43-42 record when a run differential of -33 says they should be just 39-46.
What does this all mean to the Royals, who are dead on their expected pace of 45-40 with a +19 run differential? I dunno, maybe not much other than some slight regression from a Detroit team that has still played better baseball than KC this season.
Another interesting note, is that Detroit is 15-10 in one-run games. Again, that's the best in the AL. KC is a league worst 9-16 in one-run games, both of those records should even out, especially with KC having a back end capable of holding tight leads better than any team in the league. The Royals and Tigers play each other 10 more times this season with seven of those games coming in Kansas City, which should give KC ample opportunity to gain ground in all previously discussed categories.
Another interesting thing regarding Detroit is their large disparity between facing lefties and righties. The Tigers are a whopping 18-8 vs. LHSPs, while a much less auspicious 30-27 vs. RHSPs. That's not surprising for a team that boasts nearly all right-handed bats including the best hitter in the game.
It also isn't great for the Royals' rotation whose (arguably) top two pitchers thus far
http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=860.13575 — Duffy and Vargus — are a pair of lefties, and whose right-handed No. 1 is struggling. Christian Binford may be worth a spot start or two, but man would it have been nice if a Jeff Samardzija dream came true. Guthrie and Ventura are nice to have against Detroit as they've gone 2-0 in two starts vs. the Tigers on a combined 13.2 IP with 4 ER, 12 H, 13 SO, 3 BB with both games coming in Detroit.
Shields' two starts against Detroit both ended in losses and he's a combined 12.2 IP with 10 ER, 17 H, 6 SO, 2 BB vs. the Tigers. And that was before he really started struggling. For the lefties, Duffy has two starts vs. Detroit (both losses), 11 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 7 SO, 5 BB. If you remember one of Duffy's starts was a four-inning four-walk performance that he left with 1 ER. Vargus has two quality road starts against the Tigers to the tune of 14 IP, 12 H, 1 ER, 10 SO, 3 BB, and one bad outing at home of 5 IP, 11 H, 7 ER, 3 SO, 2 BB and 2 HR.
I don't know if a manager could really tweak it, and I'm sure Yost would never try such a thing, but it might be cool to see the Royals try to toss almost exclusively righties at Detroit for the remainder of the year. It would also be great if every team in baseball would go ahead and do the same as well.
CLIFF'S:
Tigers are outperforming peripherals by 3 games thus far, and should regress.
Tigers have been lucky in one-run games, the luckiest in the AL. KC the unluckiest. This should even out.
Tigers mash lefties, but are more pedestrian against righties. KC and rest of league should just throw righties at them.
