Author Topic: ksu ladycats  (Read 277163 times)

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Offline KST8FAN

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2550 on: March 24, 2025, 12:40:49 PM »
Man that was fun. "We own Kentucky" doesn't flow as well as "We own Texas" but what can ya do?
"We own UK"
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Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2551 on: March 24, 2025, 05:10:45 PM »
Thank God for the tight rotation tonight.

a very pleasant surprise, I was certain we were getting Giz minutes to attempt to deal with their length

Offline _33

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2552 on: March 24, 2025, 05:40:11 PM »
The Big 10 being complete dog water is giving me some hope for this matchup. Justified, or no?

Offline pissclams

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2553 on: March 24, 2025, 07:57:31 PM »
The Big 10 being complete dog water is giving me some hope for this matchup. Justified, or no?
usc plays tonight on espn


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Offline Kid In the Hall

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Offline waks

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2558 on: March 25, 2025, 09:38:22 AM »
I caught the second half. It will be fun to watch the battle between Yoki and Kiki Iriafen. Yoki has three inches on her but is definitely going to be a step or two slower. Would love to see some pregame analysis from MIR and/or KITH

Offline Kid In the Hall

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2559 on: March 25, 2025, 12:54:17 PM »
Initial thoughts... not smart enough to know how/what USC does to replace Watkins other than the generic "others must step up"

They really have only one other dynamic scorer (at least so far this year) in Iriafen and she will be a load to handle (too quick for Yoki, too big for our other posts). Would imagine a lot of doubles (not really our forte) and kickouts - we'll see if USC can make 3s (on the year, not great - 32% as a team). Who else on their team becomes the No. 2/No. 3 scoring option? USC gets to the FT line a LOT (20+ per game) and we'll see how that changes without Watkins. KSU is a team that doesn't foul a lot/send the other team to the line much (they're 14th in the country getting to the line and we're 12th in the country in giving up FT attempts). They also do turn the ball over a lot (247th in the country) and you'd think losing a ball handler like Watkins would make them more likely to have even more. They're a good offensive team, but they're outside the top 50 in efficiency FG%, so not giving them too many second chances will be key.

On the other end, they're a good defensive team, but the thought above (inside/out game and spacing the floor) favors us as we're No. 2 in the country in 3 pt percentage at 38% as a team (they're outside the top 50 in 3 pt % defense, but very, very good defending inside the paint - No. 4 in the country at 2 pt % defense). So, can we get the ball to Yoki/Taylor and either get close-range shots or kick out for open 3s and/or cuts to the basket for layups? Can those two stay out of foul trouble? Will USC be able to close on us effectively with 3-4 viable 3-pt threats for us on the court at any given time?

In my view, if KSU can space the floor (meaning that Poindexter, Glenn, Sides, etc. all hit at least a few 3s), we've got a decent chance. But, if we brick 3s, they'll collapse on Yoki and we're toast. Who on USC steps up to fill that scoring void for Watkins? Iriafen had 36 against Miss. State, but I don't think she'll get that many against KSU (20+ certainly possible). USC had a freshman guard who had 18 against Miss State after being in double figures only a handful of times all year. Can she do that again?

Whatever happens, I will say this - KSU is a far better team than Miss State (they had 1 good win all year - vs. OU) and I think this game will be much, much closer.

Offline pissclams

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2560 on: March 25, 2025, 02:22:09 PM »
i’m worried that their pressure defense will keep sides on the bench and force us into mistake on offense similar to how WVU played us both times this season


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Offline Kid In the Hall

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2561 on: March 25, 2025, 05:01:24 PM »
i’m worried that their pressure defense will keep sides on the bench and force us into mistake on offense similar to how WVU played us both times this season

Duh, yes, can't believe I didn't mention that. USC is 33rd at forcing TOs (19.67 per game) - for comparison, WVU is 5th at 23.55 per game. Presumably, Watkins was a big factor in that. They did force 20 TOs vs. Miss State, but MSU is also terrible at turning the ball over (239th the country at 17 TOs per game).

With Mittie going to a short bench against UK, Walker played 27 minutes and Sides played 24. Neither gave us anything offensively, though that's obviously a bonus if/when that happens with Walker. But, Sundell's probably playing nearly all 40 minutes and, presumably, either Walker or Sides is on the court with Sundell at the same time. Interestingly, among the guards, Sundell leads the team in TOs per 40 minutes (3.6) followed by Sides (3.1) and Walker (2.7).

Offline yoga-like_abana

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2562 on: March 25, 2025, 05:07:43 PM »
KITH give us a score predicto

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2563 on: March 25, 2025, 07:15:46 PM »
i’m worried that their pressure defense will keep sides on the bench and force us into mistake on offense similar to how WVU played us both times this season

Duh, yes, can't believe I didn't mention that. USC is 33rd at forcing TOs (19.67 per game) - for comparison, WVU is 5th at 23.55 per game. Presumably, Watkins was a big factor in that. They did force 20 TOs vs. Miss State, but MSU is also terrible at turning the ball over (239th the country at 17 TOs per game).

With Mittie going to a short bench against UK, Walker played 27 minutes and Sides played 24. Neither gave us anything offensively, though that's obviously a bonus if/when that happens with Walker. But, Sundell's probably playing nearly all 40 minutes and, presumably, either Walker or Sides is on the court with Sundell at the same time. Interestingly, among the guards, Sundell leads the team in TOs per 40 minutes (3.6) followed by Sides (3.1) and Walker (2.7).
What is the guard situation for next season? Walker and Sides are back. Will the two freshman guards on the roster contribute or will they need to portal in some guards?

Offline pissclams

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2564 on: March 25, 2025, 07:26:56 PM »
i’m worried that their pressure defense will keep sides on the bench and force us into mistake on offense similar to how WVU played us both times this season

Duh, yes, can't believe I didn't mention that. USC is 33rd at forcing TOs (19.67 per game) - for comparison, WVU is 5th at 23.55 per game. Presumably, Watkins was a big factor in that. They did force 20 TOs vs. Miss State, but MSU is also terrible at turning the ball over (239th the country at 17 TOs per game).

With Mittie going to a short bench against UK, Walker played 27 minutes and Sides played 24. Neither gave us anything offensively, though that's obviously a bonus if/when that happens with Walker. But, Sundell's probably playing nearly all 40 minutes and, presumably, either Walker or Sides is on the court with Sundell at the same time. Interestingly, among the guards, Sundell leads the team in TOs per 40 minutes (3.6) followed by Sides (3.1) and Walker (2.7).
i’ve been really hard on walker all season because of the liability she presents on offense but she locked amoore down for a lot of sunday’s game.  she played so well and worked her butt off.

her minutes were so much more effective because lee is such a scoring threat.  like you guys have been talking about, mittie’s rotations were on point.


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Offline Kid In the Hall

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2565 on: March 25, 2025, 08:05:17 PM »
KITH give us a score predicto

Last year, Watkins' usage rate was 42.7%. That is absolutely insane and is - by far - the highest usage rate for a player in power conference since they started tracking that 20+ years ago (for added context - Russell Westbrook holds the NBA record for a single season at 41.65%). This year,  Watkins was down to 32%, which is still very high.

For comparison, think about how much we use Sundell. Yet, her usage rate is 22% - nearly 50% less than Watkins (and we use Sundell a lot).

I just don't know how you can replace that with a week's notice at this point in the season. This is a game K-State should win. But, I just don't have confidence in this coaching staff to pull it off (have just seen too many idiotic things over the past 10 years). I think a lower scoring game than both teams are used to with 65-70 being enough to win.

But, I thought K-State would lose to UK, so what do I know (hopefully, nothing again).

Offline Kid In the Hall

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2566 on: March 25, 2025, 08:18:20 PM »
i’m worried that their pressure defense will keep sides on the bench and force us into mistake on offense similar to how WVU played us both times this season

Duh, yes, can't believe I didn't mention that. USC is 33rd at forcing TOs (19.67 per game) - for comparison, WVU is 5th at 23.55 per game. Presumably, Watkins was a big factor in that. They did force 20 TOs vs. Miss State, but MSU is also terrible at turning the ball over (239th the country at 17 TOs per game).

With Mittie going to a short bench against UK, Walker played 27 minutes and Sides played 24. Neither gave us anything offensively, though that's obviously a bonus if/when that happens with Walker. But, Sundell's probably playing nearly all 40 minutes and, presumably, either Walker or Sides is on the court with Sundell at the same time. Interestingly, among the guards, Sundell leads the team in TOs per 40 minutes (3.6) followed by Sides (3.1) and Walker (2.7).
What is the guard situation for next season? Walker and Sides are back. Will the two freshman guards on the roster contribute or will they need to portal in some guards?

We're returning around 1/3 of everything across the board (if everyone returns - no idea about B. Glenn), so I presume both incoming freshmen will play a lot. I would think we'd need to hit the portal for at least one big (ideally one with solid offensive skills) and perhaps 1-2 of the combo guards/wings that Mittie loves.

Going to be interesting to see what the team looks like next year - will be completely different.

Offline Kid In the Hall

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2567 on: March 26, 2025, 12:32:02 PM »
Not to belabor the point, but this piece includes this nugget:

"USC doesn’t have a single five-person lineup without Watkins that has played more than 25 minutes together."

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6230300/2025/03/25/juju-watkins-injury-usc-sweet-16-2/

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2568 on: March 26, 2025, 12:55:10 PM »
I caught the second half. It will be fun to watch the battle between Yoki and Kiki Iriafen. Yoki has three inches on her but is definitely going to be a step or two slower. Would love to see some pregame analysis from MIR and/or KITH

Yoki and Iriafen won't be guarding each other. Rayah Marshall is their center. She's relatively short, at 6'3" but she's stronger than the Kentucky bigs. Iriafen will be guarded by Poindexter. I wouldn't be surprised to see us also double her if she catches in the post, and play a little zone. Poindexter will be fine, she guarded a 6'5" player last weekend.  Even with Juju, USC struggles to shoot. Their most reliable shooters are freshmen and are streaky. Expect the guards to go under screens again.

@pissclams worry about our offense is very valid. They are extremely physical and will attempt to push use out. We should be able to spread them pretty easily, but we have to hit shots. I think Kentucky are overall better defenders, but USC forces more turnovers, and we all know how we struggle against teams like that. Having Lee will help us out a great deal, if they don't double her, she'll eat Marshall up. USC will have to pick their poison, we will force them to shoot a lot of threes and they aren't good at it. I think/hope that we will use the press again. Watkins handles the ball so much for them, and they will have freshmen doing that for them now.

The bottom line for me is how well we shoot, I'm not feeling it.

62-58, USC.

Offline Stevesie60

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2569 on: March 26, 2025, 06:01:24 PM »
"USC doesn’t have a single five-person lineup without Watkins that has played more than 25 minutes together."

Damn, that is wild.

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2570 on: March 26, 2025, 07:59:08 PM »
I caught the second half. It will be fun to watch the battle between Yoki and Kiki Iriafen. Yoki has three inches on her but is definitely going to be a step or two slower. Would love to see some pregame analysis from MIR and/or KITH

Yoki and Iriafen won't be guarding each other. Rayah Marshall is their center. She's relatively short, at 6'3" but she's stronger than the Kentucky bigs. Iriafen will be guarded by Poindexter. I wouldn't be surprised to see us also double her if she catches in the post, and play a little zone. Poindexter will be fine, she guarded a 6'5" player last weekend.  Even with Juju, USC struggles to shoot. Their most reliable shooters are freshmen and are streaky. Expect the guards to go under screens again.

@pissclams worry about our offense is very valid. They are extremely physical and will attempt to push use out. We should be able to spread them pretty easily, but we have to hit shots. I think Kentucky are overall better defenders, but USC forces more turnovers, and we all know how we struggle against teams like that. Having Lee will help us out a great deal, if they don't double her, she'll eat Marshall up. USC will have to pick their poison, we will force them to shoot a lot of threes and they aren't good at it. I think/hope that we will use the press again. Watkins handles the ball so much for them, and they will have freshmen doing that for them now.

The bottom line for me is how well we shoot, I'm not feeling it.

62-58, USC.
i think two things- first, outside of poindexter and serena, we didn’t shoot the ball well at all on sunday.  but we won and I hope we gained a lot of confidence that should translate into more shots falling on saturday.

watching the team fight so hard for the win against kentucky showed me that they know why they’re there.  we’re dangerous af right now. 

lastly, usc is really good with or without juju. without her, they have something to prove.


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Offline KST8FAN

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2571 on: March 26, 2025, 08:44:04 PM »
Appreciate the analysis KITH and MIR.


Tom

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Offline meow meow

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2572 on: March 27, 2025, 09:28:26 AM »
i'm not sure loading up on BWW (trash) is the best way to prepare for a deep tourney run

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2573 on: March 28, 2025, 09:52:11 AM »
i'm not sure loading up on BWW (trash) is the best way to prepare for a deep tourney run
Serena's radiant smile can transform BWW into a Superfood.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ksu ladycats
« Reply #2574 on: March 28, 2025, 11:57:26 AM »
I caught the second half. It will be fun to watch the battle between Yoki and Kiki Iriafen. Yoki has three inches on her but is definitely going to be a step or two slower. Would love to see some pregame analysis from MIR and/or KITH

Yoki and Iriafen won't be guarding each other. Rayah Marshall is their center. She's relatively short, at 6'3" but she's stronger than the Kentucky bigs. Iriafen will be guarded by Poindexter. I wouldn't be surprised to see us also double her if she catches in the post, and play a little zone. Poindexter will be fine, she guarded a 6'5" player last weekend.  Even with Juju, USC struggles to shoot. Their most reliable shooters are freshmen and are streaky. Expect the guards to go under screens again.

@pissclams worry about our offense is very valid. They are extremely physical and will attempt to push use out. We should be able to spread them pretty easily, but we have to hit shots. I think Kentucky are overall better defenders, but USC forces more turnovers, and we all know how we struggle against teams like that. Having Lee will help us out a great deal, if they don't double her, she'll eat Marshall up. USC will have to pick their poison, we will force them to shoot a lot of threes and they aren't good at it. I think/hope that we will use the press again. Watkins handles the ball so much for them, and they will have freshmen doing that for them now.

The bottom line for me is how well we shoot, I'm not feeling it.

62-58, USC.

The coverage of the tournament this week has really pissed me off, pissed me off so much that I'm mad at my prediction and I'm changing it. Why is no one talking about Lee and Sundell? USC has great talent, and they will be tough to beat. We have the two best players in this game and everyone has been so either dismissive or indifferent to the Cats. The only team in all of college basketball right now, just as disrespected, if not more is OU Women's Basketball. We're going to win this game tomorrow night. Who is going to guard Serena? This game will be her magnum opus, it will be one of the most memorable single game performances in Kansas State sports history. She's going for 18 points, 12 assists, 9 rebounds, and 3 steals. Lee will have 23 and 9.

eff the national women's college basketball media
eff USC

77-68 Cats.