Author Topic: Recent KSU history  (Read 2413 times)

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Offline CHONGS

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Recent KSU history
« on: August 23, 2010, 05:48:11 PM »
yearplays/gameOEDERatio(DE/OE)
2004    135.2   29.56   30.56   1.034
2005    138.4   25.65   27.02   1.053
2006    127.1   24.22   25.28   1.044
2007    144.9   32.80   28.70   0.875
2008    146.6   32.14   32.97   1.026
2009    130.1   23.87   24.18   1.013

This table gives me more hope than I had before about the defense.  While still mediocre, in one year Bill has managed to get the DE down by almost 27% which is a very good improvement.  This improvement is independent of the slowed down pace, which I thought had accounted for most of the increase in defensive rankings.  While the slowing of pace was a huge factor, the defense actually did improve more than I have given it credit for.

The loss of Josh Freeman is clearly evident in the numbers.  We had a drop in OE of 26% (the loss of Jordy Nelson resulted in a 2% loss).  If we can return to Alan Webb/ Dylan Meier efficiency with a similarly efficient defense we should win 7 games.


The above is what I think we can expect given the ratio of DE/OE.  As expected a DE/OE = 1 should result in a .500 team, which we have been hovering around for about 6 years now.  As the year progresses, this ratio will be a key stat to track.

2007 was a very underachieving/unlucky team, they should have won 7 games, but only won 5. 

For reference the DOD teams routinely had ratios less than 0.4.


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Offline steve dave

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2010, 05:54:30 PM »
love this stuff

Offline KSUTOMMY

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2010, 06:15:46 PM »
Chings, I'd love to see an overall comparison at the end of the season between last years and this years data. Just to see how accurate your posts are. I too love this shyte!!
We are K-State and we love to hire SHlTTY coaches.

Offline kcchiefdav

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2010, 06:30:34 PM »
Chings pretending to be KenPom of football is like my 5 year old nephew pretending to be superman except cuter.
Y.N.W.A.

The42Yardstick

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2010, 07:12:50 PM »
needs more standard deviation

Offline kazzu

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2010, 09:39:17 PM »
<- loves Chingon posts.

Offline ben ji

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2010, 10:20:48 PM »
Chings pretending to be KenPom of football is like my 5 year old nephew pretending to be superman except cuter.

This

Just grow us a pair and tell us how many games you think we will win


Offline Dr Rick Daris

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2010, 10:30:31 PM »
Chings pretending to be KenPom of football is like my 5 year old nephew pretending to be superman except cuter.

dunno. chings is pretty smart. he'd easily be in my "top 5 on this board smart list" if i made one. agree that he's probs cuter than your nephew though.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2010, 10:52:18 PM »
Chings pretending to be KenPom of football is like my 5 year old nephew pretending to be superman except cuter.

This

Just grow us a pair and tell us how many games you think we will win


As I see it right now: 7-8 wins.  I am getting more optimistic as the season nears. :dunno:  But this is completely separate from the cold hearted stats.   

Offline Dr Rick Daris

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2010, 11:03:07 PM »
Chings pretending to be KenPom of football is like my 5 year old nephew pretending to be superman except cuter.

This

Just grow us a pair and tell us how many games you think we will win


As I see it right now: 7-8 wins.  I am getting more optimistic as the season nears. :dunno:  But this is completely separate from the cold hearted stats.   

great googly moogly. seriously? btw, chingon is kinda smart. i would probs put him in my top twenty/thirty posters on this site if i made a list of smart people on this site.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2010, 11:06:21 PM »
Chings pretending to be KenPom of football is like my 5 year old nephew pretending to be superman except cuter.

This

Just grow us a pair and tell us how many games you think we will win


As I see it right now: 7-8 wins.  I am getting more optimistic as the season nears. :dunno:  But this is completely separate from the cold hearted stats.   

great googly moogly. seriously? btw, chingon is kinda smart. i would probs put him in my top twenty/thirty posters on this site if i made a list of smart people on this site.
What can I say, I am getting giddy.  When I am right I will lord the crap out of this over all of you filthy motherfuckers.   Especially you Rick Daris.

The42Yardstick

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2010, 11:07:24 PM »
WHY ARE YOU GETTING MY HOPES UP LIKE THIS

Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2010, 11:16:16 PM »
  :angry: I WONT GET MY HOPES UP THIS YEAR CHINGS! YOU CANT TALK ME INTO IT!  MY HEART CANNOT TAKE THIS!  :angry:

Offline Dr Rick Daris

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2010, 11:41:06 PM »
Chings pretending to be KenPom of football is like my 5 year old nephew pretending to be superman except cuter.

This

Just grow us a pair and tell us how many games you think we will win


As I see it right now: 7-8 wins.  I am getting more optimistic as the season nears. :dunno:  But this is completely separate from the cold hearted stats.  

great googly moogly. seriously? btw, chingon is kinda smart. i would probs put him in my top twenty/thirty posters on this site if i made a list of smart people on this site.
What can I say, I am getting giddy.  When I am right I will lord the crap out of this over all of you filthy motherfrackers.   Especially you Rick Daris.



well...well...well. seems like someone is trying to cover their bases. you and your cronies had kstate near the bottom of your pre-season poll and now you are guaranteeing 8 wins. i've truly seen it all now. you should really try and peddle your snake oil somewhere else because this fanbase, this message board, is to smart for that.  :nono:









Hoo boy!  Well, I personally cannot wait to unveil the CPI for football this season, but alas, the Strength of Schedule component won't have any real meaning until about four weeks into the season :frown:.  To give a little bit of that CPI flavor though, I went through last seasons data and have the final CPI from 2009.  Here is some of that amazing DATA!

     1  Alabama
     2  Florida
     3  TCU
     4  Texas
     5  Boise State
     6  Ohio State
     7  Penn State
     8  Cincinnati
     9  Oklahoma
    10  Virginia Tech
    11  Central Michigan
    12  Nebraska
    13  Oregon
    14  Pittsburgh
    15  Air Force
    16  BYU
    17  Mississippi
    18  Texas Tech
    19  Arkansas
    20  LSU
    21  Clemson
    22  Georgia Tech
    23  Iowa
    24  Wisconsin
    25  Miami
    26  Rutgers
    27  Houston
    28  Nevada
    29  Oregon State
    30  Tennessee
    31  North Carolina
    32  Stanford
    33  Utah
    34  Oklahoma State
    35  Temple
    36  Arizona
    37  Connecticut
    38  Navy
    39  Northern Illinois
    40  Boston College
    41  Auburn
    42  Southern Cal
    43  West Virginia
    44  Southern Miss
    45  Middle Tennessee
    46  South Florida
    47  Fresno State
    48  East Carolina
    49  Missouri
    50  Central Florida
    51  California
    52  Kentucky
    53  Michigan State
    54  Notre Dame
    55  Troy
    56  Ohio
    57  Georgia
    58  Louisiana Tech
    59  Northwestern
    60  South Carolina
    61  Michigan
    62  Tulsa
    63  Bowling Green
    64  Arizona State
    65  Texas A&M
    66  Kansas
    67  UCLA
    68  Buffalo
    69  Wake Forest
    70  Kansas State
    71  Southern Methodist
    72  North Carolina State
    73  Arkansas State
    74  Purdue
    75  Florida State
    76  Louisiana-Monroe
    77  Washington
    78  Iowa State
    79  Mississippi State
    80  Kent State
    81  Western Michigan
    82  Duke
    83  Idaho
    84  Marshall
    85  Army
    86  Minnesota
    87  Texas El Paso
    88  New Mexico State
    89  Florida Atlantic
    90  UAB
    91  Louisiana-Lafayette
    92  Hawaii
    93  Indiana
    94  Utah State
    95  Eastern Michigan
    96  Toledo
    97  Ball State
    98  Akron
    99  San Diego State
   100   Tulane
   101   Colorado
   102   Vanderbilt
   103   New Mexico
   104   North Texas
   105   Rice
   106   Illinois
   107   Western Kentucky
   108   Wyoming
   109   Baylor
   110   Colorado State
   111   UNLV
   112   Virginia
   113   San Jose State
   114   Maryland
   115   Memphis
   116   Washington State
   117   Florida International
   118   Syracuse
   119   Louisville
   120   Miami (Ohio)

Here is the ranking by Raw Offensive Efficiency (number of points scored per 135 plays [includes offensive and defensive possessions])
 1   45.4  Boise State
 2   41.4  TCU
 3   41.2  Nevada
 4   39.7  Cincinnati
 5   38.6  Texas
 6   37.9  Arkansas
 7   37.5  Houston
 8   37.3  Florida
 9   37.0  Stanford
10   37.0  Georgia Tech
11   36.0  Oregon
12   35.4  Fresno State
13   34.9  Pittsburgh
14   34.9  BYU
15   33.7  Alabama
16   33.7  Wisconsin
17   33.6  Northern Illinois
18   33.3  Texas Tech
19   33.2  Central Michigan
20   33.1  Virginia Tech
21   32.6  Oregon State
22   32.6  Idaho
23   32.4  Miami
24   32.3  Clemson
25   31.9  Auburn
[83   23.8  Kansas State ]

Here is the ranking by Raw Defensive Efficiency (number of points allowed per 135 plays [includes offensive and defensive possessions])
  1   11.49  Nebraska
  2   11.70  Alabama
  3   12.39  Florida
  4   12.40  Penn State
  5   12.63  Ohio State
  6   12.63  TCU
  7   12.74  Oklahoma
  8   14.43  Texas
  9   15.32  Air Force
 10   15.90  Iowa
 11   16.68  Virginia Tech
 12   16.73  LSU
 13   17.22  Central Michigan
 14   17.73  North Carolina
 15   18.21  Boise State
 16   18.52  Rutgers
 17   18.87  Mississippi
 18   19.46  Utah
 19   19.70  Boston College
 20   19.79  Texas Tech
 21   20.62  Southern Cal
 22   20.78  Cincinnati
 23   20.97  South Carolina
 24   21.03  Oklahoma State
 25   21.05  Pittsburgh
[54   24.17   Kansas State]

Here is the ranking by Raw Tempo (number of possessions per game [includes offensive and defensive possessions])
 1   158.01    Houston
 2   152.10    Texas A&M
 3   148.70    Texas Tech
 4   146.81    Middle Tennessee
 5   145.79       Florida International
 6   143.79    Kansas
 7   143.33    Troy
 8   143.12    Utah State
 9   142.96    Western Michigan
10   142.96    Oklahoma
11   142.87    Tulsa
12   142.86    Southern Miss
13   142.31      Missouri
14   142.14    Texas
15   141.88    Memphis
16   141.30    Texas El Paso
17   141.23    Oregon
18   141.14    Rice
19   140.95    Northwestern
20   140.93    Toledo
21   140.66    New Mexico
22   140.54    Iowa State
23   139.87    Oklahoma State
24   139.74    Louisiana-Lafayette
25   139.71    Baylor
[96   130.11    Kansas State]

This only underscores that fact that the defense was not as greatly improved last year as many people think, rather we simply ran clock and limited the number of possessions.  More to come later....
 :ksu: :ksu: :ksu:


Offline nicname

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2010, 01:51:34 AM »
Love the dumbasses on this site that try to PI a good/smart poster like chingon.  99 times out of 100 they end up looking like complete idiots. 
If there was a gif of nicname thwarting the attempted-flag-taker and then gesturing him to suck it, followed by motioning for all of Hilton Shelter to boo him louder, it'd be better than that auburn gif.

Offline Brock Landers

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2010, 03:31:47 PM »
Pretty amazing how Snydsies slowed the game down by over 16 plays per game compared to 2008.    :eek:   

Offline hatingfrancisco

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Re: Recent KSU history
« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2010, 10:45:13 PM »
Love the dumbasses on this site that try to PI a good/smart poster like chingon.  99 times out of 100 they end up looking like complete idiots. 

 :jerk: