year | plays/game | OE | DE | Ratio(DE/OE) |
2004 | 135.2 | 29.56 | 30.56 | 1.034 |
2005 | 138.4 | 25.65 | 27.02 | 1.053 |
2006 | 127.1 | 24.22 | 25.28 | 1.044 |
2007 | 144.9 | 32.80 | 28.70 | 0.875 |
2008 | 146.6 | 32.14 | 32.97 | 1.026 |
2009 | 130.1 | 23.87 | 24.18 | 1.013 |
This table gives me more hope than I had before about the defense. While still mediocre, in one year Bill has managed to get the DE down by almost 27% which is a very good improvement. This improvement is independent of the slowed down pace, which I thought had accounted for most of the increase in defensive rankings. While the slowing of pace was a huge factor, the defense actually did improve more than I have given it credit for.
The loss of Josh Freeman is clearly evident in the numbers. We had a drop in OE of 26% (the loss of Jordy Nelson resulted in a 2% loss). If we can return to Alan Webb/ Dylan Meier efficiency with a similarly efficient defense we should win 7 games.
The above is what I think we can expect given the ratio of DE/OE. As expected a DE/OE = 1 should result in a .500 team, which we have been hovering around for about 6 years now. As the year progresses, this ratio will be a key stat to track.
2007 was a very underachieving/unlucky team, they should have won 7 games, but only won 5.
For reference the DOD teams routinely had ratios less than 0.4.