***LONG POST ALERT***
so today, mellinger wrote another column calling for the firing of bob sutton:
https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sam-mellinger/article224870295.htmli agree that it's probably time to make a change, but mellinger's arguments are weak, lazy, misleading and oversimplified. he also doesn't suggest a replacement for sutton (or explain why a new DC would do better); he doesn't diagnose why the failings are taking place; and he also doesn't put the defense's performance in proper context.
let's look at some of mellinger's central arguments in the column:
Somehow the Chiefs were even worse in 2018. They finished 31st in defense, 30th in Football Outsiders’ catch-all DVOA measurement, 31st in passing yards surrendered and 31st in average yards per rush.
first, DVOA is a solid model, but like everything has its flaws. among them is the fact that not all teams are trying to accomplish the same things in particular situations. for example, Team A with a 14-point 3rd quarter lead might maintain an aggressive defensive style and play straight up; while Team B with the same lead might shift to prevent defense. Team B, which perhaps values taking time off the clock more than conceding yards, is likely to fare worse using this metric.
second, if mellinger is aware of DVOA, then he is surely aware of what's called weighted DVOA. weighted DVOA lowers the importance of early-season games and is a better representation of how a unit is performing
right now. the chiefs were 16th in weighted DVOA entering the Pats game, which was exactly league average.
finally, mellinger performs a bit of sleight of hand when presenting passing yards as "yards surrendered" and rushing yards as "yards per rush." why does he do it this way? because he knows the chiefs' pass defense held up well on a per-play basis, where they gave up 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 16th (league average) and is just 0.4 yards away from being a top-10 pass defense. the chiefs surrendered a ton of passing yards because they were frequently leading opponents by a ton of points, and thus teams were forced into passing.
They lost five games this season, with opponents scoring an average of 40.2 points in those games.
again, this is misleading.
the chiefs gave up 37 pts to the pats in the playoff game, and then in the regular season gave up 43 pts to the pats, 54 to the rams, 29 to the chargers and 38 to the seahawks.
in reality, the chiefs allowed 31 pts (in regulation) in the playoff game. they gave up 36 pts in the regular season loss to the pats (mahomes' turnover set NE up at the chiefs 4-yard line). they gave up 40 to the rams (there were two defensive scores). and then they gave up true-to-score outcomes vs the chargers and seahawks. it still isn't good, but the chiefs allowed 34.8 points per game in these five games against four opponents that all averaged between 27-33 pts per game. the pats, rams, chargers and seahawks were the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 9th best offenses in the league. in other words, we shouldn't be surprised by these results. these teams scored on everyone!
The Chiefs gave up more first downs than any team in NFL history during the regular season, and then 36 more in Sunday’s playoff loss. Going back to 1940, only eight teams have ever given up more first downs in a game. Only nine teams have surrendered more yards in a season.
recent offenses are setting all kinds of records - first downs, points scored, yards gained, etc. this is driven primarily by the style of football being played, and secondarily by rules changes in recent years. telling us that "going back to 1940, only eight teams have ever given up more first downs in a game" is stupid. teams in 1940 averaged 15 points per game and the league avg for first downs was 11.5 (compared to the current average of 20.4 first downs and 23 pts). the 2018 chiefs defense, in part because the offense often scored quickly, faced a ton of plays and a ton of non-competitive plays at that. it's no surprise that teams would rack up yardage on them, particularly late in games when they're in hurry-up mode trying to pass their way to a comeback.
There can’t be many units in the league that underperformed their talent and context worse than the Chiefs’ defense. The offense was a rocket ship, especially early, which meant the defense was often playing with the lead in obvious passing situations.
this is a nonsense argument. the chiefs kicked off first way more than they received. in fact, they deferred the first nine games of the year. if the chiefs' rocket ship offense was playing with leads, then the only way to get leads is to have the defense get early stops. it is simply impossible to build big leads if the defense is giving up touchdowns every possession.
that begs the question: how did the chiefs' defense perform early?
well, turns out quite well! the chiefs defense allowed an average of 3.5 points in the 1st quarter this year, which ranked 5th in the league. they were much worse in the 2nd quarter (8.1 pts, 24th), but the overall net put them at solidly average (16th in first-half points allowed). the chiefs' average halftime lead this year was 18-11, and overwhelmingly, they got ball first in the 2nd half to build on the lead.
The rub is that by protecting Sutton, Reid has opened him to more criticism. Sutton is not a bad coach. From 2013 to 2016, he led defenses that finished no worse than seventh in points allowed and twice finished seventh in yards allowed.
from here, mellinger actually acknowledges that sutton has done some nice things in the past. which he has. and then mellinger acknowledges that sutton's talent hasn't been great the last few years (thus drafting all defense this past year), and we all know he's been held hostage by reoccurring injuries/departures to key players (ford, houston, berry the last few years, on top of sorensen's injury, peters' departure, etc.)
it is worth noting that the chiefs' defense was actually better than these numbers, or any numbers, suggest. they played a hard offensive schedule this year. the chiefs played nine of their 18 games against offenses that ranked #2, #3, #3, #4, #4, #5, #6, #8, and #9. by comparison, the colts defense played just three above average offenses the entire year and played five games against the bottom 5.
i honestly think some of the chiefs' bad numbers are a result of them playing good offenses, and being passive with big leads. before this year, sutton was never a coach that couldn't make in-game adjustments. his defenses allowed the fewest fourth-quarter points in the league in 2013, and they were 4th, 7th and 7th in 4th-quarter points allowed in the three years that followed. these past two years, with the chiefs offense often building big leads, is the first time we've seen poor late-game defense.
the pats game was disappointing, and the defense was horrible (i considered the 1st half defense to be a disaster despite only giving up 14 points; we all know it should have been 21 points on just four drives). but lots of teams, including the chargers a week earlier, are going to fall short against the best quarterback we've ever seen.
one more:
Perhaps most tellingly, the inside linebackers underperformed. You can give Chiefs general manager Brett Veach some of the blame here, but Anthony Hitchens was a good player in Dallas. He has a diverse skill-set and balanced game that should’ve translated well to a new system. Instead, he was ineffective.
is it possible that the positional coaches stink? we've seen doug pederson and matt nagy move on to head coaching jobs, and eric bienemy was a well regarded RBs coach who is now a highly praised coordinator. brad childress (previously on staff), mike kafka and andy heck are other offensive coaches who have gotten praise. but you rarely hear much about the defensive coaches. reid's own son coaches the defensive line, and the two linebackers coaches - mark deleone and mike smith - i never hear anything about. maybe they're ineffective? maybe they're not offering competent mid-game assistance to sutton, in the same way that belichick's offensive staff was improvising to figure out the chiefs' D?
there's plenty of questions for andy to address in the next few weeks. maybe he will move on from sutton, maybe he won't. but i don't think there's any guarantee the next guy will be better, and i don't think a defensive turnaround under sutton is impossible with a few roster tweaks and a bit more stability.
