What bowl game are we playing?

[IPA4Me]

I had Avery +4000 on a ticket when they first opened lines in January or February 2024.

[pissclams]

a virtual lock

[MakeItRain]

Why did we go for 2 on the prior TD?


Tom

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Tom, I have no idea. One of the more baffling decisions I've ever seen

It’s some dumb crap teams are doing now when down 14 (or 17, 14 + fg) with the premise that 2-point conversions are 50/50 so go for it on td #1 and if you make it the other td gets the win instead of tie, and if you miss it you’ll get the next one b/c 50/50 and you’re even.

It’s dumb.

attorneys don't have to take math in college

Show your work.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/1284371/2019/10/11/college-football-two-point-conversion-decisions-manny-diaz-pat-fitzgerald/

Here’s the basic math when trailing by two touchdowns: Say you have a 50 percent chance of converting a two-point attempt. Across two potential attempts, you have a 50 percent chance of winning the game in regulation (by converting the first one and making the PAT), a 25 percent chance of going to overtime (missing first, making second) where you have a 50/50 shot and a 25 percent chance of losing in regulation (missing both).

That means you have a 62.5 percent chance of winning if you go for two first, compared to 50 percent if you play for overtime. Those numbers aren’t exact; they change based on team and obviously assume making the extra point, which Miami didn’t, but that’s the gist. The strategy is also backed up by a 2017 FiveThirtyEight study. Here's the 538 link https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/

https://x.com/KevinCole___/status/1054567013522333696

[Trim]

Yeah, I get all that with respect to 14, and thought I explained the same in my post. Of course as was pointed out in the thread, that presumes the other team won’t score again. Makes some sense in desperate times at end of game. Fh did it down 17 halfway thru the 3rd quarter.

[MakeItRain]

Yeah, I get all that with respect to 14, and thought I explained the same in my post. Of course as was pointed out in the thread, that presumes the other team won’t score again. Makes some sense in desperate times at end of game. Fh did it down 17 halfway thru the 3rd quarter.

I mean the premise is the same right? If you have the ability to get 18 instead of 17, the math works to try to get 18. The probability of getting one 2 point conversion out of 2 doesn't get smaller because you also need a field goal.

This presumes the other team won't score another touchdown and then converts a 2 point conversion. The opposing team scoring again shouldn't make a difference. After the TD, the deficit was 11. Another FG by the opponent makes the deficit 2 TDs regardless, another TD and extra point makes the deficit 2 touchdowns and a field goal regardless. You'll still need the 2 point conversion that you missed, it's just now it's to tie instead of taking the lead.

[DQ12]

The thing about Avery is that everyone had really unreasonable expectations for him this year (I.e. having pretty high odds for the heisman).  He had some accuracy issues.  He wasn’t a particularly aggressive runner.  And he made some really bad decisions.

He also had a very nice year for a sophomore QB.  So yeah, it’s an expectations thing mostly. He’ll get a lot better, imo, and he’s already pretty good.

he didn’t have high heisman odds iirc

He was +2500 which was 11th best.  Best odds of any player in the B12.

i guess that’s high?

The odds implied he would be the best qb in the big 12.  He was not.

[pissclams]

we should let our fans know to quit setting such high heisman odds

[DQ12]

we should let our fans know to quit setting such high heisman odds

I’m saying there were high expectations of him (within much of our fanbase and nationally) that he didn’t meet. 

I don’t know what you’re trying to say.