While we definitely got a chance to run table if everything pans out right, 10-2 I think is most likely. In terms of tier hardness of games in my mind:
Tier 1 (other team is Alabama or tOSU or similar):
None
Tier 2 (we'd lose 4 out of 5 times, but it's possible to upset):
None
Tier 3 (we'd lose these games 2/3 times):
Baylor: The current overall favorite, and we play them on the road. We played them tough at home last year but we needed more offense to overcome them, hopefully we can. That being said I don't exactly see Baylor as unbeatable by any stretch.
Tier 4 (toss ups):
OU: They should be down a peg this year, but it is one the road, but also Klieman has done ridiculously good vs OU, we definitely can win, but never easy.
OSU: Like the reverse of OU for us, Klieman has not figured them out yet, and besides one season we've been a step or two behind. We probably have closed the gap, and playing at home will help, but is it enough?
Tier 5 (we should win 2 out of 3 times):
Texas: I am never convinced they are back, and it was our idiotic play calling and game management that cost us the game in Austin more than anything else. If we have our crap together we should win
ISU: They should be a step back from us this time, but it is in Ames, should win but it's historically always been a pretty close game, with a usually hilarious ending for them
Mizzou: Probably my most question mark out of them all. I think the renewal-ish of the "rivalry" will honestly make this a pretty tough game, especially early in the season if we're not quite in tune yet.
Tier 6 (we should win 4 out of 5 times):
Tech/WV/TCU/Tulane: In my mind all 4 of those teams are basically at the same level, probably going to win 4-5 games (except for Tulane cuz conference) and we should win by low double digits but you also can't treat them as easy wins, but they should be wins.
Tier 7 (embarrassing to lose to/keep it within 3 TDs):
SD/KU: both pretty self explanatory
So I'm thinking we lose @Baylor, and pick one of the Oklahomas, and honestly OSU is my lean on. If Martinez ends up not prospering as well as we'd like, we'll probably drop to 8-4, if he is a star in Klein's offense, 12-0 is possible, there are no juggernauts on this schedule.