Possible WW3 thread

[MakeItRain]

good thread.

Circling back to Russia's problem with manpower availability and the question of mobilization. Its unclear how they can sustain the war without making difficult political choices (and even with). However, general mobilization is the wrong issue to focus on. Thread. 1/

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) May 12, 2022

What are the "difficult political choices" particularly for a dictator?

[wetwillie]

good thread.

Circling back to Russia's problem with manpower availability and the question of mobilization. Its unclear how they can sustain the war without making difficult political choices (and even with). However, general mobilization is the wrong issue to focus on. Thread. 1/

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) May 12, 2022

What are the "difficult political choices" particularly for a dictator?

I assume a coup and his untimely demise

[MakeItRain]

good thread.

Circling back to Russia's problem with manpower availability and the question of mobilization. Its unclear how they can sustain the war without making difficult political choices (and even with). However, general mobilization is the wrong issue to focus on. Thread. 1/

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) May 12, 2022

What are the "difficult political choices" particularly for a dictator?

I assume a coup and his untimely demise

He's a dictator, that's always a possiblity, even moreso when you involve your country in what amounts to a civil war, for no reason at all. Between that and the sanctions, I can't imagine the angry and disillusioned have much more capacity for anger.

[Sandstone Outcropping]

How it started. How it’s going.

Russia Feb. 24 - “Ukraine will fall. We’ll sack Kyiv within 72 hours.”

Russia May 14 - “A heroic death of a soldier, who stopped Ukrainian advances on Belgorod.”

H/t @sternenko pic.twitter.com/Z429BfYXKu

— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) May 14, 2022

?s=21&t=JxRWwigyaYjoQ1U8a3qqkg

⚡️Institute for the Study of War: Ukraine appears to have ‘won the Battle of Kharkiv.’

The Institute for the Study of War states in its May 13 report that it appears that Ukraine has “won the Battle of Kharkiv.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 14, 2022

?s=21&t=JxRWwigyaYjoQ1U8a3qqkg

[sonofdaxjones]

Imagine that, an “institute” run by a Kagan of the Nuland-Kagan NeoCon Junta is declaring victory

[sys]

i didn't understand what was happening until the end of the video and had to go back and rewatch once i had that understanding.

This is crazy. It's like watching footage from the Battle of Stalingrad, or the Battle of Berlin, but it's taking place in 2022. https://t.co/EtUdFuKosz

— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) May 14, 2022

[Spracne]

i didn't understand what was happening until the end of the video and had to go back and rewatch once i had that understanding.

This is crazy. It's like watching footage from the Battle of Stalingrad, or the Battle of Berlin, but it's taking place in 2022. https://t.co/EtUdFuKosz

— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) May 14, 2022

Can you share that understanding with me, please?

[sys]

the person or persons they were engaging were close enough to be reached with a hand-thrown grenade.

[Sandstone Outcropping]

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[Spracne]

Invalid Tweet ID?s=21&t=zYp99IG7LZ4HdC7NI5Fypw

What was this?

[Sandstone Outcropping]

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What was this?

227 батальйон 127 бригади Сил територіальної оборони ЗСУ у Харкові витіснив росіян та вийшов на ділянку державного кордону.

Всім доброї ночі (окрім окупантів)! pic.twitter.com/IDpd0sTHn2

— Накипіло (@nakipeloua) May 15, 2022

?s=21&t=zYp99IG7LZ4HdC7NI5Fypw

Alright, people, we have the first Ukrainian unit coming up to the Russian border as part of the counter offensive action northeast of Kharkiv.
We should expect Russia to lose this salient north of the city as well in the coming days.
Via @Liveuamap pic.twitter.com/ONEU6BGaLU

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 15, 2022

?s=21&t=zYp99IG7LZ4HdC7NI5Fypw

[sys]

this seems significant to me.  a priori, i'd have thought there would be a good chance that nato nations would pressure ukraine to stop short of retaking crimea (which they still may, but this makes me rethink how likely that is).

Another sign the US seems to believe that Ukraine will improve its military situation in the coming weeks and months. https://t.co/FOPCoyHU0G

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 16, 2022

[sys]

heh.

a bunch of people on here suddenly pivoted to hard-nosed Mearsheimerist realism about two months ago, have they all pivoted back now?  what's the current take from that camp, that Russia should surrender to avoid further destruction by the superpower EU on their border?

— Quantian (@quantian1) May 15, 2022

[sys]

fair bit of rumblings about russia either drafting or otherwise inducing former servicemembers to reenlist.

There are stories that people with prior service are being called into the voenkomat to have their information confirmed, which suggests preparatory work is being done in the event that some form of partial mobilization or call up is authorized. https://t.co/JwErOJZ0I7

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) May 16, 2022

[Sandstone Outcropping]

All interesting developments. I don't see why Putin doesn't just declare victory and leave rather than pouring more resources into this. I will take a lot of time to generate more forces that could be used to renew their offensive plans.

[sonofdaxjones]

Totally winning, tho

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-14/eu-drafts-plan-for-buying-russian-gas-without-breaking-sanctions?sref=6uww027M

[sys]

Seems Azovstal is over now https://t.co/fy1XNxdve1

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) May 16, 2022

[Sandstone Outcropping]

Seems Azovstal is over now https://t.co/fy1XNxdve1

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) May 16, 2022

Does this mean they are surrendering or being exchanged for Russian prisoners that Ukraine has?

[sys]

afaik, they've surrendered.  no idea if there is also a deal for an immediate prisoner exchange.

[sys]

Worth a watch https://t.co/pkEcEfSZSw

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 16, 2022

[sys]

He is very informative. Probably already posted ITT but his "War on the Rocks" podcast is worth a listen.

good recommendation.  i found this to be informative and clear-minded.

Sat down with Ryan Evans for another discussion on the war. Those interested welcome to tune in. @WarOnTheRocks  https://t.co/C03YGUYm3l

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) May 14, 2022

[sys]

i know there's a tendency to overemphasis russian military deficiencies in a way that gives a mistaken impression of their advantages, and i don't really want to contribute to that, and also maybe there's a good reason that isn't obvious to me why a driver would do this.

all that said, lol.

Two Russian BMPs enter a minefield, the first one hits a mine, second one drives full speed into another. pic.twitter.com/03B93JPMnL

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 16, 2022

[Spracne]

Worth a watch https://t.co/pkEcEfSZSw

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 16, 2022

Wow. A rare moment of clarity, there. RIP to that guy.

[LickNeckey]

This guy needs to talk to Dax

[Tobias]

not sure that guy will ever speak to anyone again