Nathaniel Read Nate Silver 538 fivethirtyeight FiveThirtyEight lol

[chum1]

I can never find a dedicated 538 thread when I want it, so here's one.

Man, one of my favorite things is when Nate has a stupid bad opinion on twitter and then everyone starts piling on. Like this!

https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1479073769666879489


https://twitter.com/ohkafuimykafui/status/1479140649916112899

https://twitter.com/MikeBeauvais/status/1479137347878985732

[steve dave]

He has some hilariously bad takes. Pretty much every time he wanders outside of hard statistical stuff.

[michigancat]

He has some hilariously bad takes. Pretty much every time he wanders outside of hard statistical stuff.

like every six months he should re-read his own goddam book where he clowns people who make takes/decisions without data

It's a great book! Wild to see how shitty folks like that can become over time.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I'm not sure if he has a bad take or not here, because I can't decipher exactly what his take is.

[michigancat]

I'm not sure if he has a bad take or not here, because I can't decipher exactly what his take is.

his take is that US school closure for covid was more catastrophic than the invasion of Iraq

[Rage Against the McKee]

I'm not sure if he has a bad take or not here, because I can't decipher exactly what his take is.

his take is that US school closure for covid was more catastrophic than the invasion of Iraq

Oh, ok. Yeah, that's pretty bad. I thought maybe he was saying that if some hypothetical person is dumb enough to believe that, then they should stop and reflect on that.

[michigancat]

I'm not sure if he has a bad take or not here, because I can't decipher exactly what his take is.

his take is that US school closure for covid was more catastrophic than the invasion of Iraq

actually, he considered this to be a fact. His take was that it should be reflected upon because it was definitely as bad as the invasion of Iraq.

[michigancat]

I mean LMAO when you see what he was responding to

[MakeItRain]

I hate that this dude gets so much airspace. He's entitled to having really rough ridin' dumb opinions, like the rest of us, but we don't have to listen and treat this dude like he's Albert rough ridin' Einstein.

[sys]

i'm pretty sure he meant "for the united states".

[MakeItRain]

He posted at least a dozen replies and never clarified that, and even if he did, would it make the tweet any better?

[wetwillie]

I can’t even remember what this dudes claim to fame was. Did he predict Trump would win with his election model?

[michigancat]

He posted at least a dozen replies and never clarified that, and even if he did, would it make the tweet any better?

yeah it MAYBE makes the analytical side make more sense but instead makes it more evil overall?

[michigancat]

I can’t even remember what this dudes claim to fame was. Did he predict Trump would win with his election model?

I think he got 2008 almost perfect which raised his profile and led to his book and fame and NYT buying his site. His site favored Clinton but gave Trump a better chance than most

[sys]

He posted at least a dozen replies and never clarified that, and even if he did, would it make the tweet any better?

yeah it MAYBE makes the analytical side make more sense but instead makes it more evil overall?

more morally oblivious, i'd say.

[MakeItRain]

I can’t even remember what this dudes claim to fame was. Did he predict Trump would win with his election model?

I think he got 2008 almost perfect which raised his profile and led to his book and fame and NYT buying his site. His site favored Clinton but gave Trump a better chance than most

He started out as a baseball sabermetrics dude, then he used the same model to project elections. It was actually some of the 2008 primaries that he nailed that no one else did, that put him on. He got on the dailykos and NYT. He then got bought out by Disney and they added him to ESPN.com around the same time they also started Grantland. The 2016 election was the first one that he had a true broad audience for because those clowns at MSNBC put him on as well. He got 2016 wrong and he became the whipping boy for maga even though everyone got it wrong, but he was the lib stooge on ESPN and MSNBC.

[Cire]

Haven’t you guys spent time with autistic people? They say crap like that all the time.


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[passranch]

I have a friend who is a huge Nate Silver apologist...maybe you could say evangelist even.

[chum1]

Lol

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1548877631151833090

[sonofdaxjones]

#LOL

[michigancat]

Lol

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1548877631151833090

What on earth

[sonofdaxjones]

 

[sys]

i think silver is objecting to franchot using the graph of the general election, where any dem would be favored over any republican and sort of conflating that with the much fuzzier prediction for franchot in the dem primary.  a reader just glancing at it very easily could think that the graph relates to franchot's chances in the primary or in both the primary and general election.

[chum1]

Yeah, Silver is unintentionally calling his own graphic disinfo there. And with zero self awareness.

[cfbandyman]

Agree with all 3 of the last posts. I like 538, a lot, but he can be such a weirdo about things. I agree w/ sys he's probably objecting to using general election to help his primary chances (or something).

It's still dumb.