Poll

which statement best represents your view

ukraine has already won the war, it's just a matter of time before they restore pre-2014 borders.
6 (19.4%)
ukraine is winning the war, but russia could reverse course with extraordinary measures (tactical nukes, full mobilization, etc)
18 (58.1%)
ukraine is winning the war, but at any time fortune could switch sides and russia could win
4 (12.9%)
ukraine has fought surprisingly well, but over time russia's size and military might will prevail
3 (9.7%)
russia is winning the war, it's just a matter of time before ukraine surrenders
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 31

Voting closed: September 23, 2022, 07:08:36 PM

Author Topic: ukraine invasion poll 2.0  (Read 956 times)

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Offline sys

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ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« on: September 20, 2022, 07:08:36 PM »
four months have gone by, ukraine has mounted a successful offensive in the north and russia has taken some initial steps towards escalation/mobilization, so it seems like an opportune time to see how goEMAW currently views the war in ukraine.


the old poll is linked below.

https://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=43503.0


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"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2022, 06:59:26 PM »
just one voting day left.

so far it looks like people are quite a bit more bullish on ukraine, but iirc, some late votes came in for russia last time round.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Online Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2022, 08:02:24 PM »
I voted that Ukraine has already won. Putin could still theoretically launch nukes and destroy the world, but he can't win the war.

Offline bucket

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2022, 08:04:59 PM »
Ukraine wins but they don't get Crimea

Offline Woogy

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2022, 09:49:35 AM »
Ukraine is mos def in the driver's seat, but post USSR borders are a bridge too far, I think.  Either Crimea or Donbas - likely the majority of Donbas - remains under direct Russian influence. 

Offline Cire

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2022, 11:38:08 AM »
In law's In law's are Ukrainian.  The dad is a nuclear engineer and is a pretty big time euro Nuke power consultant to the UN and stuff.

Anyhoo, we were all together a year or so after Crimea was annexed.  Viktor said that Ukranians didn't really care because Crimea was basically the russian Oligarch/crime lord money laundering vacay spot.  Likened it to Vegas of the 60's/70's and the US Mob or Cuba and the mob in the 40's, 50's.  Said they could have it.


Offline cfbandyman

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2022, 12:41:48 PM »
Ukraine is mos def in the driver's seat, but post USSR borders are a bridge too far, I think.  Either Crimea or Donbas - likely the majority of Donbas - remains under direct Russian influence.

I think Russia "keeps" Donbas and doesn't lose Crimea and that's enough to save face, Ukraine still ends up joining NATO and Russia has to pick on someone else, probably Georgia
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Online steve dave

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2022, 01:31:29 PM »
you can tell kat kid has voted but dax hasn't

Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2022, 01:51:07 PM »
Ukraine is mos def in the driver's seat, but post USSR borders are a bridge too far, I think.  Either Crimea or Donbas - likely the majority of Donbas - remains under direct Russian influence.

I think Russia "keeps" Donbas and doesn't lose Crimea and that's enough to save face, Ukraine still ends up joining NATO and Russia has to pick on someone else, probably Georgia

I think the US would sign off on that to end the rape/pillage/consumer electronics theft.  The whole world can see russia is simply dropping vast arrays of arms in Ukraine that will flood the globe.  The orcs are simply running away from their weapons

Online LickNeckey

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2022, 02:12:31 PM »
I think Ukraine gets Crimea but doesn't retake Donbas

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2022, 03:27:27 PM »
I think Ukraine gets Crimea but doesn't retake Donbas

i don't see how that could happen.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2022, 03:28:52 PM »
I think Russia "keeps" Donbas and doesn't lose Crimea and that's enough to save face, Ukraine still ends up joining NATO and Russia has to pick on someone else, probably Georgia

also don't think this combination of things is possible.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Online wetwillie

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2022, 03:53:59 PM »
Ukraine will do what the US tells them to do
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2022, 04:04:04 PM »
Ukraine will do what the US tells them to do

they won't, but also the idea that the us would want those things to happen is pretty bizarre.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2022, 05:06:38 PM »
Ukraine will do what the US tells them to do

they won't, but also the idea that the us would want those things to happen is pretty bizarre.

I don't think we need to put them down like a horse with a broken leg anymore.  We just got an inexpensive field test of our ops/tech/intel head to head with Russian counterparts and kicked the total crap out of them.  even in the hands of Ukraine we mumped the best russia had to offer up in the summer so hard they on are on the verge of civil war.  They are forcing prisoners and old men into uniform just so their pervy ass doesn't get invaded.  We know they are not crap to us anymore, could never meet us head to head for more than a month.  We would end them quickly.  Importantly, they now know it as well.

so find a way that bald psycho doesn't pop off a nuke and get back them supplying cheap fossils until eurp can cook up a better plan. 

Not for nothing but your guy Stone has been pointing out russia isn't crap for over a decade on this very blog

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2022, 06:14:34 PM »
you can tell kat kid has voted but dax hasn't
Not on Tapatalk, haven’t voted

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2022, 07:24:56 PM »
you can tell kat kid has voted but dax hasn't
Not on Tapatalk, haven’t voted

well it's too late now.  the early voter wins the poll, folks.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll 2.0
« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2022, 07:28:22 PM »
with similar turnout, goEMAW shifted to be about one category more bullish on ukraine's chances.  there was also a shift from a bimodal result in the early poll to a more normally distributed opinion this time around.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."