Poll

how many u.s. coronavirus deaths will there be by 4/1/2021?

under 520k
0 (0%)
520-540k
1 (9.1%)
540-560k
6 (54.5%)
560-580k
2 (18.2%)
over 580k
2 (18.2%)

Total Members Voted: 11

Voting closed: January 20, 2021, 01:42:57 PM

Author Topic: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll  (Read 1507 times)

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Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #25 on: February 25, 2021, 09:15:17 AM »
California now over 50K deaths

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #26 on: February 26, 2021, 12:04:54 PM »
past 520K. 540 - 560 looks like a safe bet at this point

Online 8manpick

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #27 on: February 26, 2021, 12:51:30 PM »
Might break 600
:adios:

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #28 on: February 26, 2021, 12:54:07 PM »
Might break 600
7 day moving average is around 2,000 deaths per day so deaths would need to start trending back up for that to happen (I suck at stats but I think that is right).

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2021, 01:57:41 PM »
past 520K. 540 - 560 looks like a safe bet at this point

yeah, under 540 looks pretty impossible now.  i thought deaths would trail off a little faster.
"a lot of political rhetoric is picking a slice of "elites" and positioning yourselves against them."

Online 8manpick

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #30 on: February 26, 2021, 03:01:04 PM »
Might break 600
7 day moving average is around 2,000 deaths per day so deaths would need to start trending back up for that to happen (I suck at stats but I think that is right).
That would be great. So if it stays flat (seemingly worst case) we’re looking at 580+, but not 600
:adios:

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #31 on: March 09, 2021, 11:36:48 PM »
went over 540k today.  we're almost certain to get over 560k before the end of the month.  i'm a little surprised at how slowly deaths have come down, especially given that vaccine distribution has surprised to the upside.
"a lot of political rhetoric is picking a slice of "elites" and positioning yourselves against them."

Offline bucket

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #32 on: March 09, 2021, 11:48:15 PM »
went over 540k today.  we're almost certain to get over 560k before the end of the month.  i'm a little surprised at how slowly deaths have come down, especially given that vaccine distribution has surprised to the upside.

I thought daily death totals were elevated due to backlogged deaths being added.

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #33 on: March 10, 2021, 12:08:09 AM »
yeah, there's a lag in death reporting, but afaik, there isn't anything about that lag that has recently changed.
"a lot of political rhetoric is picking a slice of "elites" and positioning yourselves against them."

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #34 on: March 10, 2021, 08:23:44 AM »
yeah, there's a lag in death reporting, but afaik, there isn't anything about that lag that has recently changed.
There are people who got infected in January that are still hospitalized so the lag in time from infection to death plays a role - probably more than time from death to time that death is reported. Per COVID Tracking Project, we are about to drop under 40K Americans hospitalized. Smallville, KS hospital has not had a positive test in their lab for over a week.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #35 on: March 10, 2021, 08:31:33 AM »
yeah, there's a lag in death reporting, but afaik, there isn't anything about that lag that has recently changed.
There are people who got infected in January that are still hospitalized so the lag in time from infection to death plays a role - probably more than time from death to time that death is reported. Per COVID Tracking Project, we are about to drop under 40K Americans hospitalized. Smallville, KS hospital has not had a positive test in their lab for over a week.

Yeah, it's sort of the reverse situation when this all started and all the pandemic deniers were making fun of "it has only like 15 people, you idiots!" and then they had to shut up and leave gE forever like a month later when the deaths came by the hundred and then thousands a day, death, is not instant with this disease, and they never could understand that. Realistically the deaths we're seeing are caused by infections at least 2 weeks, but more likely 4-6 weeks ago as you pointed out.
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Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #36 on: March 22, 2021, 01:13:36 PM »
looks like were going to land in the 560 - 580K slot.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #37 on: March 28, 2021, 02:29:22 PM »
looks like were going to land in the 560 - 580K slot.

Call it
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Offline sys

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #38 on: March 28, 2021, 02:39:16 PM »
congratulations to the 560-580'ers.  the majority were too optimistic on this one.
"a lot of political rhetoric is picking a slice of "elites" and positioning yourselves against them."

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #39 on: March 28, 2021, 02:42:31 PM »
maybe also a good thread to congratulate italy on joining the six figger club.  to :sdeek: at brazil and to wonder that we didn't hear more about eastern europe as they went from a spring success story to a rough ridin' morgue in the fall/winter.
"a lot of political rhetoric is picking a slice of "elites" and positioning yourselves against them."

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #40 on: March 28, 2021, 05:48:33 PM »
congratulations to the 560-580'ers.  the majority were too optimistic on this one.
:blush:
Gonna take a (tragic) victory lap on this one.

Curious to know what happened in Czech Republic. They were very early adopters of masks and had great numbers last spring.

Offline michigancat

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #41 on: March 28, 2021, 05:52:33 PM »
congratulations to the 560-580'ers.  the majority were too optimistic on this one.
:blush:
Gonna take a (tragic) victory lap on this one.

Curious to know what happened in Czech Republic. They were very early adopters of masks and had great numbers last spring.
They were discussed in another thread. They stopped wearing masks and opened everything up in the summer.

Offline memphis

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #42 on: March 28, 2021, 05:55:56 PM »
Can I crap post a stupid take here? If masks produced the same outcomes as the AZ vaccine, I'd be happier today.

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #43 on: March 28, 2021, 06:18:07 PM »
Can I crap post a stupid take here? If masks produced the same outcomes as the AZ vaccine, I'd be happier today.

I mean that would make masks pretty goddam effective for the price, wouldn't it?

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #44 on: March 28, 2021, 06:21:39 PM »
Could probs even say buy a 40 usd mask every month, that are cheaper for other countries like 3 dollars.

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #45 on: March 28, 2021, 09:35:19 PM »
I was too pessimistic! Pleasantly surprised
:adios:

Offline waks

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #46 on: March 28, 2021, 11:01:55 PM »
So does this thing hit 600k when it's all said and done? Has to right?

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #47 on: March 29, 2021, 08:02:35 AM »
So does this thing hit 600k when it's all said and done? Has to right?
yes

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #48 on: April 28, 2021, 01:38:46 PM »
18 states with over 10K deaths. Kansas at 5,000 deaths. Brazil closing in on 400K. Jair is not gonna let himself get lapped by DJT in the Covid death race.

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Re: death poll 9.0, the last (probably) death poll
« Reply #49 on: April 28, 2021, 06:26:01 PM »
it's amazing how many countries are getting close to having had 1 out of every 500 residents die from covid over the last fourteen months.
"a lot of political rhetoric is picking a slice of "elites" and positioning yourselves against them."