Author Topic: Post Covid Things  (Read 4980 times)

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Online steve dave

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Post Covid Things
« on: December 30, 2020, 08:14:48 AM »
We've talked about all of the stuff I'm going to post below in the covid threads but I wanted a thread for just this stuff because it's fascinating for me to think about.

There's going to be a tremendous amount of scholarship done on this generation of children and how this event effected (affected?) them. That will be interesting to follow. How will it impact them? Guessing we see a widening gap between poor and wealthy districts? How do we close that? What's this generation going to be called? "Lost Year" "Covid"?

We've talked a lot about the WFH and the new normal in the office. It has accelerated what was already happening by a decade or more imo. A lot of people are going back to the office, but a lot won't dependent on industry. Those cost savings are going to be hard to give back once they are on the balance sheets. And the environmental impact of commuting and occupying office space all day has more eyes on it (and this will only increase). Commercial real estate is going to be available for a fraction of the pre-pandemic price and inventories will be huge.

Also related is business travel and I've said on here I don't think that ever reaches pre-pandemic levels again. Large conference facilities and hotels are going to be hurt bad long term.

Related but counter is vacation travel. This thing has been a massive boon for Airbnb/VRBO. I think post covid we see a couple years of revenge travel where people and families take about double their normal leisure trips. This should offset a small amount of that business travel loss.

This is WFH related but the urban populace fleeing to the suburbs and countryside during the pandemic has been something. What will that look like? Everyone now needs home office space and home gym space and all that. Post pandemic do all those pelatons find their own room in a new suburban mcmansion? What do downtown areas look like? Obviously this was happening more slowly for the last century but with those people able to work anywhere in the country and needing that space will be interesting to see. Home prices in the burbs are exploding, inventories are almost nothing.

What is going to happen with the cold/flu rates across the country? Will they stay low for years post pandemic? Seems like maybe but I know nothing about this stuff.



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Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2020, 08:18:22 AM »
A lot of us business travelers just got "Up in the Air'd" and that will be good for many. I liked the points for my fam tho and it's always nice to see new places. I don't think that will be happening for awhile. I'm presenting three lunch and learns in January and hosting a convention spot for three days, right here from my basement at home.

Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2020, 08:41:53 AM »
My industry relies on a lot of person to person interaction. So my travel will go back to where it was prepandemic. We've done some remote onboarding of larger customers but the small guys typically don't have the infrastructure to do that. We're also investing in a lease fleet to encourage more local travel with our sales force.

On a personal note, we're planning a hostel tour of Europe in 2022/2023 as our honeymoon.

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Online steve dave

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2020, 08:42:31 AM »
Congrats!


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Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2020, 08:52:45 AM »
Sounds sweet, IPA!

Offline star seed 7

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2020, 08:58:52 AM »
I want to do a "big" trip for my 40th in March '22 and I'm just smdh at how crowded and expensive it will probably be with you revengers
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Online steve dave

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2020, 09:26:31 AM »
I want to do a "big" trip for my 40th in March '22 and I'm just smdh at how crowded and expensive it will probably be with you revengers

Yeah, it's going to be wild for a couple years I think. We've got 5 things booked right now for the next 12 months starting in May (CHIP WILLING) and are getting ready to book another big one for next Nov/Dec. Also going to hit like 5 baseball stadiums with lil sd this summer as quick hitters. I'm going to have like 45 days of PTO I'll need to burn for 2021 so it's going to get used.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2020, 09:27:10 AM »
On business / conventions, we heard the exact same thing after 9/11.  Travel will never go back.  It did.  People hate hate hate virtual meetings and conferences.  They lose out on the networking aspect which is why we all go to conferences in the first place.  Now that every week to week business consultant travel?  Yeah I think that could die down a bit.  Conventions though can't wait to get back to in person from the tea leaves I've heard/read/seen

On back to the office?  People hate hate hate zoom meetings worse than they hate in person meetings.  Many people don't have a great setup for WFH even now and are itching to get back to the office.  Now what I think we'll see is a much more hybrid situation where it's now not frowned upon to WFH when needed or "not feeling well" which is a great improvement for work life balance and overall health.  Companies can't simply dump their office space short term.  Now will there be long term planning and "maybe we don't need that new space we were planning on for 2030" thoughts going on?  For sure.  Could more office buildings turn into affordable housing?  That wouldn't be a bad thing.

Which leads to a topic I care a lot about, what happens to living situations, city life?  If you can work from home or your office no longer exists, does that make living in a city where the "stuff" is more important as you don't have to worry about commuting (that could be on foot if you live where you work, or driving out to the burbs where more and more offices are popping up) or do people want to maximize value per square foot if they are planning to live and work in the same space?

Kids?  No idea but there is no way this year of virtual school hasn't impacted their education.  Can educators learn from this and make "snow days" a thing of the past?  Possible. 

Leisure travel is expected to be batshit crazy by September I'm reading assuming all goes well.

How do bars and restaurants recover?  Are we in for a decade of Chili's popping up everywhere where good restaurants used to be but didn't have the capital to make it?  Is there a resurgence of new independent restaurants about to bust down the door when this passes?  Will this usher in the new roaring 20's?

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2020, 09:28:01 AM »
I want to do a "big" trip for my 40th in March '22 and I'm just smdh at how crowded and expensive it will probably be with you revengers

Yeah, it's going to be wild for a couple years I think. We've got 5 things booked right now for the next 12 months starting in May (CHIP WILLING) and are getting ready to book another big one for next Nov/Dec. Also going to hit like 5 baseball stadiums with lil sd this summer as quick hitters. I'm going to have like 45 days of PTO I'll need to burn for 2021 so it's going to get used.

Our Spain 2020 trip is penciled in for Spain 2021 but if us and them are chipped up it's going to be a madhouse over there.  I carried over and bought more vacation for '21 so I'm packed to the gills to not work next year as much as possible.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2020, 11:49:29 AM »
I look forward to me and my friends setting a date for our cancelled Italy trip. That was a killer to have cancelled but also understandable.

Work for me still involves a lot of in person travel to plants, so that'll never change (and didn't too much over this pandemic besides being more of a PITA). The biggest improvement I hope is we get to a place where we can get more of my fellow coworkers back into the travel rotation (a combo of layoffs back in June, and then several of the ones we still have having either very young kids/immune compromised themselves or their spouses) meant the burden of "being there" fell on a very very small group, and did that get old quick. It is understandable, and you grit through it, but still, it wears on you.

I do enjoy that it does seem like increased flexibility with being at home is here to stay though. I just hope this next year we get more people back because somehow we're going to be busier. I ended up forfeiting (sure compensated but still) 7.5 PTO days this year because I couldn't take them with all the travel and dashing everywhere. I need that to stop. That's nearly 1/2 of my days off just poof, gone.
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Online Trim

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2020, 12:04:07 PM »
The convention center expansion here got delayed and is now possibly mumped because it was getting funded by things shut down.  They're still trying to get it funded and built though.  If it fails, there'll be this half-done piece of crap just sitting there as part of the view of everyone who passes through.

https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/washington-state-convention-center-announcement/281-b30d480b-29d1-4dfb-8cca-c833cbd333ea

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/dealbook/convention-centers-coronavirus.html

Quote from: more recent biz journal article
Dec 17, 2020, 10:11am EST
The manager of the $1.9 billion Washington State Convention Center addition project has until Jan. 11 to submit a construction shutdown plan for the financially hobbled project.

The convention center board Tuesday passed a motion that set the deadline and also said that members will have "a special meeting, as soon after that date as practical."

Shutting down the project over several months would cost around 1,000 construction jobs and delay the project's completion, further wounding the hospitality industry already facing unprecedented strain from the pandemic.

To avoid halting work on the 11-story, 1.6-million-square-foot Summit addition, the project team needs to close a $300 million financing shortfall. Additional bond financing rounds had been scheduled before the pandemic caused investor interest in lodging tax-backed securities to dry up.

Minimal process has been made on finding additional financing since two weeks ago, when King County Executive Dow Constantine said the county will lend the project $100 million.

The city and state are also looking into contributing to the lending effort.

A Constantine spokesman Wednesday said numerous courthouse discussions are occurring, and that he thinks there will be "something concrete later this week or next."

Spokespeople for the mayor and governor reiterated their support for helping to keep construction going but offered no updates.

Project development manager Matt Griffin of Pine Street Group said he could not say what the odds of rounding up the rest of the financing. He has met with city Department of Construction and Inspections Director Nathan Torgelson to talk about how the project would be wound down.

It would occur over the spring. Once fully shutdown the incomplete project would be a blight along Interstate 5 in the heart of the region.

"(The situation) is boiling and it's not comfortable," said Griffin, who added the cost of the project has increased from just over $1.8 billion to nearly $1.9 billion.


Offline michigancat

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2020, 12:07:58 PM »
I'm gonna go to a bunch of concerts. I'm surprised more smaller venues I go to haven't announced permanent closures but I expect there will be a lot more DIY-type concerts.

I'm also gonna travel for work more soon, probably more than pre-pandemic TBH

Online Trim

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2020, 12:19:38 PM »
I'm gonna go to a bunch of concerts. I'm surprised more smaller venues I go to haven't announced permanent closures but I expect there will be a lot more DIY-type concerts.

Here, the NIVA Save Our Stages money in the relief bill is looking to be enough to prevent extinction for a bunch.

I've got a paper ticket for a 4/1/20 concert that I just looked up and saw it's been officially continued again from February 2021 to 11/16/21.  It'll be a miracle if I don't lose the thing by then.

Offline sys

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2020, 02:53:03 PM »
i'm pretty skeptical of a long-term reduction demand for urban commercial real estate.  a little less skeptical of a long-term reduction in business travel, but i think the magnitude is being oversold.
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Online MakeItRain

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2020, 09:58:10 PM »
I don't think the prevailing reasons that organizations have large scale conventions and conferences won't go away. Companies can still get a eff ton of money from smaller businesses wanting to sell crap. If anything the value of networking has been enhanced by this. Company executives still will want to get away and hob knob with other execs.

I am now business traveling for two different industries and I can tell you that I already have three conferences scheduled for this summer, including one in Vegas, two in the fall of '21, and two more in the winter of '21/'22, in DC and Atlanta.

Offline yoga-like_abana

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #15 on: December 31, 2020, 02:21:21 PM »
Gonna be some ragers post covid

Online passranch

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2021, 04:33:17 PM »
There will never, ever be snow days at school ever again, and that makes me super sad.

Kind of a rite of passage, now lost forever.

Online MakeItRain

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2021, 09:39:33 PM »
There will never, ever be snow days at school ever again, and that makes me super sad.

Kind of a rite of passage, now lost forever.

This is very much not true. There is no way that districts will be able to permanently be able to afford giving every student a computer and many students internet access. Even if they did, I think occasionally staying home and doing two hours of computer work will be just fine with kids on a dull ass February day. The kids will still be able to watch The Price Is Right and then get some sledding in.

Offline nicname

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2021, 10:27:45 PM »
There will never, ever be snow days at school ever again, and that makes me super sad.

Kind of a rite of passage, now lost forever.

This is very much not true. There is no way that districts will be able to permanently be able to afford giving every student a computer and many students internet access. Even if they did, I think occasionally staying home and doing two hours of computer work will be just fine with kids on a dull ass February day. The kids will still be able to watch The Price Is Right and then get some sledding in.

A bit off topic, but the added leaning on Chromebooks and tech in schools is ass-backward imo. I'd love to send my kid to a school where there was basically no tech outside of a computer lab where they learned typing, excel, programming, etc.
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Offline yoga-like_abana

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2021, 11:08:33 PM »
There will never, ever be snow days at school ever again, and that makes me super sad.

Kind of a rite of passage, now lost forever.

This is very much not true. There is no way that districts will be able to permanently be able to afford giving every student a computer and many students internet access. Even if they did, I think occasionally staying home and doing two hours of computer work will be just fine with kids on a dull ass February day. The kids will still be able to watch The Price Is Right and then get some sledding in.

That sounds like an awesome snow day

Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #20 on: January 05, 2021, 09:03:48 AM »
I'm looking at getting some short term rentals and have a friend I may partner with in the hotel industry.  He has a rental and a couple of economy hotels so has some experience.  I know a few people that rent on airbnb and have been getting a decent amount of month long bookings with people being untethered to the office.

Online steve dave

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #21 on: April 08, 2021, 09:31:12 PM »
Dimon was a holdout but even he's turned

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1380343472952123395

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #22 on: April 08, 2021, 10:13:26 PM »
You really have to feel for New Yorkers right now. Worst of every possible world.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #23 on: April 08, 2021, 10:17:42 PM »
Dimon was a holdout but even he's turned

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1380343472952123395

His actual letter laid out a lot of the things I continue to bring up about going back to the office.  If you were to believe the "no more office workers", 60/100 is not what they were talking about.

Online steve dave

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Re: Post Covid Things
« Reply #24 on: April 09, 2021, 08:52:40 AM »
literally nobody on the planet has said or believes that....