Always a big fan of 538. I love when trumpers bag on Nate Silver for getting it "wrong" when their site gave him by far the best odds to win, they selectively forget that. Also, people really have a hard time realizing (cause I think his last projection in 2016 had Hillary at like 65%, trump 35%) that 2-1 odds isn't like remotely a unlikely possibility.
I'm glad they have added that to their elections (they did at least in 2018 and the dem primary) where they had the % but then put it in terms of "this person has a 2 in 5 chance of winning" along with 40% for example. Non math people seem to take 2 in 5 mentally in their minds as better than a 40% chance. I personally blame how we grade things in school as the reason why pretty much anything 50% or less is destined to fail and anything above it is basically certainty just higher forms of it.
I also tend to agree the states you got there are most likely the ones that decide this election fwiw
