Poll

how many covid 19 deaths will be reported in the united states by june 30 2020?

100-115k
2 (8%)
115-130k
9 (36%)
130-145k
7 (28%)
145-160k
5 (20%)
over 160k
2 (8%)

Total Members Voted: 25

Voting closed: May 29, 2020, 06:41:02 PM

Author Topic: death poll 6.0  (Read 1392 times)

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Offline sys

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death poll 6.0
« on: May 26, 2020, 06:41:02 PM »
results will be from worldometers, midnight cst.


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we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline michigancat

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2020, 06:43:24 PM »
this is a tough one, my guess is right around a border

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2020, 06:45:38 PM »
this is a tough one, my guess is right around a border

no fence sitting in this poll.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline michigancat

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2020, 06:45:58 PM »
I VOTED

Online wetwillie

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2020, 07:03:10 PM »
Recent trend would say >160 is nearly impossible but I still cast my vote for it.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline memphis

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2020, 07:38:45 PM »
Recent trend would say >160 is nearly impossible but I still cast my vote for it.

Figured the 130k was about the par for the poll  :dunno:

Offline SkinnyBenny

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2020, 09:04:26 PM »
115-130 :frown:
"walking around mhk and crying in the rain because of love lost is the absolute purest and best thing in the world.  i hope i fall in love during the next few weeks and get my heart broken and it starts raining just to experience it one last time."   --Dlew12

Offline 8manpick

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2020, 09:45:07 PM »
145-160
:adios:

Offline 8manpick

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2020, 09:45:30 PM »
I think we'll be at the lowest end
:adios:

Offline michigancat

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2020, 10:05:31 PM »
I think we'll be at the lowest end

yep I guessed ~1500/day. depends on how quickly people die from memorial day outings. what a fun topic.

Offline 8manpick

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2020, 10:07:21 PM »
I think we'll be at the lowest end

yep I guessed ~1500/day. depends on how quickly people die from memorial day outings. what a fun topic.
I sure hope I'm wrong, I keep voting for what I think is an overshoot, and ending up right. :(
:adios:

Offline passranch

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2020, 03:49:13 PM »
Recent trend would say >160 is nearly impossible but I still cast my vote for it.

Figured the 130k was about the par for the poll  :dunno:

The way things are trending, we'll struggle to get to 130k, IMO.

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2020, 05:47:25 PM »
eff, i forgot to bump this earlier.  only an hour left to vote.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline waks

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2020, 07:32:32 PM »
Recent trend would say >160 is nearly impossible but I still cast my vote for it.

Figured the 130k was about the par for the poll  :dunno:

The way things are trending, we'll struggle to get to 130k, IMO.
Struggle to get to it or struggle to stay under? We're already almost to 105k and it isn't even June yet.

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2020, 07:55:34 PM »
The way things are trending, we'll struggle to get to 130k, IMO.
Struggle to get to it or struggle to stay under? We're already almost to 105k and it isn't even June yet.

i dunno if it was apparent from the categories, but my over/under was 130k.  looks like we got 11 voters for under that and 14 for over, so goEMAW is broadly in agreement with that estimate.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #15 on: May 30, 2020, 12:49:57 AM »
The way things are trending, we'll struggle to get to 130k, IMO.
Struggle to get to it or struggle to stay under? We're already almost to 105k and it isn't even June yet.

i dunno if it was apparent from the categories, but my over/under was 130k.  looks like we got 11 voters for under that and 14 for over, so goEMAW is broadly in agreement with that estimate.
Depends on weather (?) we see a continued drop or not.  Trends are friends rn.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline passranch

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #16 on: June 03, 2020, 08:24:52 AM »
Recent trend would say >160 is nearly impossible but I still cast my vote for it.

Figured the 130k was about the par for the poll  :dunno:

The way things are trending, we'll struggle to get to 130k, IMO.
Struggle to get to it or struggle to stay under? We're already almost to 105k and it isn't even June yet.

Struggle to get to it.  The IHME estimate says US deaths should be between 119k and 131k by July 1st, most likely hitting around 124k.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Like @DQ12 says, the way things are trending it appears we will stay under 130k.

Offline memphis

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2020, 10:46:10 AM »
Anyone think we will be able to call this at the end of next week for the 115k to 130k bracket?

Online wetwillie

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2020, 11:14:37 AM »
I think the 130-145 seems like a lock at this point. 115k or so to start Monday and 22 days left.  I think you would have to average under 750 per day through June to keep it under 130k.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2020, 11:23:54 AM »
Anyone think we will be able to call this at the end of next week for the 115k to 130k bracket?

no.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #20 on: June 08, 2020, 11:48:41 AM »
The way things are trending, we'll struggle to get to 130k, IMO.
Struggle to get to it or struggle to stay under? We're already almost to 105k and it isn't even June yet.

i dunno if it was apparent from the categories, but my over/under was 130k.  looks like we got 11 voters for under that and 14 for over, so goEMAW is broadly in agreement with that estimate.
Depends on weather (?) we see a continued drop or not.  Trends are friends rn.
FWIW, trends continue to be friends.  Over the last month, the 7 day average has fallen 10-20 percent week over week, currently down to 829.

Hopefully that continues.  If today goes like I'm expecting (<400), it should be the lowest daily death count since March 27.  Pending a second wave, I don't expect to see another day of >1000.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2020, 11:55:19 AM »
Florida may have a problem...

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2020, 12:04:12 PM »
Florida may have a problem...
Eh maybe...but Florida's 7 day avg is still about half as high as it was during its peak (which was about a month ago), though higher than it was a week ago.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline sys

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #23 on: June 17, 2020, 08:45:03 PM »
on track to go down to the wire on this one.  13 days left.  per dq12, averaged 739 deaths per day last week (eyeballing the first couple days of this week, looks like the death count continues to fall).
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline DQ12

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Re: death poll 6.0
« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2020, 11:15:51 PM »
on track to go down to the wire on this one.  13 days left.  per dq12, averaged 739 deaths per day last week (eyeballing the first couple days of this week, looks like the death count continues to fall).
Down to 659 now.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]