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Author Topic: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)  (Read 19047 times)

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Offline steve dave

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #100 on: October 23, 2020, 12:05:01 AM »
I realize there’s not a lot left after the vig but lmao. Take the easy ones.




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Offline steve dave

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #101 on: October 23, 2020, 12:07:19 AM »
Like, there is zero chance he wins Wisconsin. That’s only one state but it’s 100% a lock.


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Offline steve dave

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #102 on: October 23, 2020, 12:09:05 AM »
Ok, I’ve found a better one




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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #103 on: October 23, 2020, 12:14:56 AM »
My biden-won’t-win stock has rebounded 50%. :ohno:
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Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #104 on: October 23, 2020, 12:58:44 AM »
take advantage by selling and buying into the winning side.
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Offline 8manpick

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #105 on: October 23, 2020, 07:07:30 AM »
Alright, I’m in on Trump losing a state he won at $0.82, Dems winning Wisconsin at $0.69 and Pubs winning Ohio at $0.69
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Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #106 on: October 23, 2020, 08:53:45 PM »
Quote from: 8manpick on October 23, 2020, 07:07:30 AM
Alright, I’m in on Trump losing a state he won at $0.82, Dems winning Wisconsin at $0.69 and Pubs winning Ohio at $0.69

i hold shares in the first two of those.
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Offline 8manpick

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #107 on: October 23, 2020, 09:07:27 PM »
The third is one I’d be happy to lose
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Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #108 on: October 23, 2020, 09:19:38 PM »
personally, i'd rather win the bet.
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #109 on: October 23, 2020, 11:53:50 PM »
$0.69 doesn't seem that lucrative for the pubs winning Ohio. Polling makes it look a lot closer to 50/50 than 70/30.
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Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #110 on: October 24, 2020, 06:02:03 AM »
Better money to be made at your favorite horse track.

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Offline steve dave

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Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #111 on: October 24, 2020, 07:43:02 AM »
Quote from: IPA4Me on October 24, 2020, 06:02:03 AM
Better money to be made at your favorite horse track.

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I mean, some of this stuff is essentially a guaranteed winner. It’s not paying 10x but a 95% chance at a 30% return in 10 days is pretty good. You have $10k sitting in a money market fund you may as well turn that into $13k real quick imo (the math in this post has not been reviewed for 100% accuracy but basically you get what I’m saying).


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Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #112 on: October 24, 2020, 05:13:09 PM »
sorry, sd, didn't see your post earlier.  just plain vanilla biden national is the best bet, imo.  there are 6 different markets for that.  biden win the popular vote is super low risk.

states, imo are florida, mn, mi, penn and wisconsin in no particular order.  other states are good too, but those are the best.
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Offline wetwillie

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #113 on: October 24, 2020, 05:14:21 PM »
How much money can be made predicting Kansas votes trump?
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Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #114 on: October 24, 2020, 05:28:36 PM »
Quote from: wetwillie on October 24, 2020, 05:14:21 PM
How much money can be made predicting Kansas votes trump?

you can buy ks trump shares for 92 cents.

all of the trump shares are overpriced, even the red state shares.  if you want a safe state bet, you can get biden in colorado for 89 cents.
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Offline wetwillie

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #115 on: October 24, 2020, 05:51:48 PM »
Don’t I have to find an idiot to sell it to for 93 cents or more before Election Day?
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Offline chum1

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #116 on: October 24, 2020, 06:03:33 PM »
I'd bet that Biden wins Kansas, but am not interested enough to sign up.
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Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #117 on: October 24, 2020, 06:09:09 PM »
Quote from: wetwillie on October 24, 2020, 05:51:48 PM
Don’t I have to find an idiot to sell it to for 93 cents or more before Election Day?

you can sell your shares from 1-99 cents.  if you hold until resolution, the share will settle for either 0 or 100 cents.
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Offline wetwillie

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #118 on: October 24, 2020, 06:14:21 PM »
Oh wow what is the max amount per bet?
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Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #119 on: October 24, 2020, 06:16:15 PM »
Quote from: wetwillie on October 24, 2020, 06:14:21 PM
Oh wow what is the max amount per bet?

$850, but most markets have two mirror markets, so really $1700 for most.

fees are 5% to put money in and 10% of profits.
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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #120 on: October 24, 2020, 07:17:14 PM »
I picked up FL for biden today.
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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #121 on: November 02, 2020, 10:38:53 AM »
I got my hillary-won't-run money!  Now to find something to blow this last $10 on.
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Offline Gooch

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #122 on: November 02, 2020, 10:43:26 AM »
BidenVoter yard sign?
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Offline 8manpick

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #123 on: November 02, 2020, 09:02:31 PM »
Markets moving towards Trump in most of the swing states...
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Offline sys

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Re: Predictit (sys, Justwin, and KK talk)
« Reply #124 on: November 02, 2020, 09:26:29 PM »
Quote from: 8manpick on November 02, 2020, 09:02:31 PM
Markets moving towards Trump in most of the swing states...

it's amazing.  the money wants to be liberated.
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