Author Topic: political hobbyist thread  (Read 28695 times)

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Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #150 on: November 14, 2020, 07:08:16 PM »
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #151 on: November 14, 2020, 07:22:41 PM »
Have ranked choice voting instead of first pass (winner take all) and interesting idea on House representation as well for proportional representation. Would take tho

https://www.vox.com/2020/1/23/21075960/polarization-parties-ranked-choice-voting-proportional-representation
Yeah that all sounds great. Would like to hear the counter argument

Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #152 on: November 21, 2020, 06:54:01 PM »
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #153 on: November 21, 2020, 08:31:55 PM »
he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #154 on: November 21, 2020, 08:38:06 PM »
he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).
Does he clarify where he draws the line of "high profile"?

Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #155 on: November 21, 2020, 09:00:04 PM »
not really.

just that it makes sense for like school board elections and doesn't for presidential elections, but if he's identified the point in between where the flip occurs, i haven't seen it.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #156 on: November 21, 2020, 10:18:52 PM »
The tweet is gone so I don't know who he is but I do agree with this

he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).

Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #157 on: November 21, 2020, 10:27:15 PM »
The tweet is gone so I don't know who he is but I do agree with this

he thinks it's a waste of time and money for high profile elections (persuasion or gotv, either way).

it was shor and he was saying that since he was cancelled already he isn't afraid to say it and possibly offend potential progressive customers. Apparently he IS worried about offending potential customers though

Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #158 on: December 01, 2020, 02:32:42 AM »
tired of reading david shor interviews?  here's a wonderful opportunity to listen to a david shor interview instead.  couple of points i found interesting included that the media has more of an impact on a race than the candidates themselves (17ish minute mark) and pointing out the asymmetry that republican politicos tend to be more moderate than their base voters while dem politicos tend to be more extreme than their base voters (26ish minute mark).

https://twitter.com/Nowooski/status/1333663170255196160
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #159 on: December 01, 2020, 03:58:37 AM »
lol. HAAAAARRRDDDD PASS

Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #160 on: December 01, 2020, 04:19:50 AM »
found another one.  covers a lot of the same ground.  if i was going to only listen to one, it'd probably be this one.  more thoughtful, less pithy.

https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1331621743237214208
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #161 on: December 01, 2020, 10:58:11 AM »
My familiarity to this guy is limited to his tweets that you post. Is there any methodology or independent research to these opinions he gives? A lot of what I see here seems like opinion backed by confirmation bias. For instance there is a lot of polling and research that disputes this.

Quote
pointing out the asymmetry that republican politicos tend to be more moderate than their base voters while dem politicos tend to be more extreme than their base voters

Seems like a dude enjoying the smell of his own farts.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #162 on: December 01, 2020, 11:24:50 AM »
fwiw from what I understand almost all of his opinions/conclusions are underpinned by research, polling and analysis (could probably question how he synthesizes different things to come to an opinion). For the most part I don't see citations tho in articles, he def shares some on twitter.

I'm sure there is some research and polling, I just wonder how much of it is independent.

Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #163 on: December 01, 2020, 11:34:38 AM »
fwiw from what I understand almost all of his opinions/conclusions are underpinned by research, polling and analysis (could probably question how he synthesizes different things to come to an opinion). For the most part I don't see citations tho in articles, he def shares some on twitter.

I was listening to the last podcast sys shared and he brought up the "average voter spends 6 hours a day watching TV" and cited Nielsen analysis. I called that out as bullshit when I heard it a while back so I looked for Nielsen data.



https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2020/ballot-box-breakdown-looking-at-the-u-s-voter-and-media/

I suppose it's possible that the average voter spends over two and a half hours more watching TV than the average adult but that seems pretty unlikely and I don't want to spend all day looking for his data.

Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #164 on: December 01, 2020, 03:46:43 PM »
I listened to the rest, I hated the host so goddam much.

Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #165 on: December 01, 2020, 06:00:04 PM »
i think he says the median voter, not the average voter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_voter_theorem
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #166 on: December 01, 2020, 06:07:44 PM »
i think he says the median voter, not the average voter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_voter_theorem

well he clearly said "average voter" a little after the 19th minute.

I still think a "median voter" watching that much TV is unlikely based on the Nielsen data I saw.

Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #167 on: December 01, 2020, 06:15:44 PM »
he must have misspoke.  i've heard/read him say it enough times i can pretty much repeat it from memory - the median voter is a 50 year-old, white, non-college male that watches 5 hours of tv/day.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #168 on: December 01, 2020, 09:22:46 PM »
he must have misspoke.  i've heard/read him say it enough times i can pretty much repeat it from memory - the median voter is a 50 year-old, white, non-college male that watches 5 hours of tv/day.

He upped it to six and a half hours too!

Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #169 on: December 01, 2020, 09:24:44 PM »


Shor is getting around more these days or do I just recognize him now?

Quote
Ultimately, in this hyperpolarized world, what national media outlets choose to talk about is going to be much more important in determining whether [Democratic Congressman] Collin Peterson survives in Minnesota’s 7th district than anything he does. That’s just the reality. [This month, Peterson lost his bid for reelection.]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334

but yeah interesting article though.  I got to this and was like "WHAT?!?"

Quote
The average voter in a general election is something like 50 years old — in a midterm or primary, it’s higher. They don’t have a college degree. They watch about six hours of TV a day — that’s the average; there are people who watch more.

something about that seems off

other thoughts

-crazy he can point to ONE MISTAKE costing the 2016 election
-The white college educated shift to dems is an interesting one, especially the idea that they're sort of shoving out minorities
-he's got a huge boner for non-college whites. I don't know how his numbers work out but should Dems maybe focus on minorities that are shifting away before being racist-friendly? dunno
-he was less like a robot but still kinda roboty

He said average voter here too

Offline 8manpick

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #170 on: December 01, 2020, 09:54:08 PM »
Sounds like this Shor fella is a quack
:adios:

Offline sys

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #171 on: December 01, 2020, 11:22:34 PM »
i guess i couldn't quite recite it from memory.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #172 on: December 01, 2020, 11:58:14 PM »
i guess i couldn't quite recite it from memory.

It's OK, I don't think Shor can either

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #173 on: December 02, 2020, 12:03:01 AM »

Offline michigancat

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Re: political hobbyist thread
« Reply #174 on: December 02, 2020, 10:26:46 PM »
Should probs Shor up this thread with a Hughes video interview  :driving: (I think this is dated)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_a113OGaTg
Oh God