Author Topic: Do You Know Anyone with COVID-19? (Read 74908 times)

Spracne · « **on:** April 05, 2020, 03:31:17 PM »

Girl I hung out with for an extended period 3 weeks ago tested positive last week. Just checked in with her, and her update was "I am praying for death. I have never been more sick in my entire life. I can't breathe. I don't have the strength to do anything."

30 y/o, in case you're wondering.

Anyone else have a close friend or family member who has caught this mild flu? If so, post your updates here so that we can mentally prepare for the effects when some of us inevitably fall ill.

wetwillie · « **Reply #1 on:** April 05, 2020, 03:37:59 PM »

My brother appears to have contracted this disease. He is 26.

Spracne · « **Reply #2 on:** April 05, 2020, 03:40:32 PM »

Quote from: wetwillie on April 05, 2020, 03:37:59 PM

My brother appears to have contracted this disease. He is 26.

And how's he doing?

Rage Against the McKee · « **Reply #3 on:** April 05, 2020, 03:49:17 PM »

My wife personally knew someone who died. I had a brief conversation with the guy a few years ago, but wouldn't say I knew him. He was in his 70s. Nobody I interact with regularly has tested positive for it yet.

CHONGS · « **Reply #4 on:** April 05, 2020, 03:51:33 PM »

wetwillie · « **Reply #5 on:** April 05, 2020, 03:51:37 PM »

Quote from: Spracne on April 05, 2020, 03:40:32 PM

Quote from: wetwillie on April 05, 2020, 03:37:59 PM
My brother appears to have contracted this disease. He is 26.

And how's he doing?

Just started showing signs yesterday, fever and other Flu like symptoms.

catastrophe · « **Reply #6 on:** April 05, 2020, 04:10:07 PM »

Wife's friend and child strongly suspected of having COVID-19 a couple weeks ago. They got swabbed but doctors never processed the tests since the symptoms were mild and testing was/is so limited. Feeling fine now as far as I know.

steve dave · « **Reply #7 on:** April 05, 2020, 04:21:23 PM »

My former realtor just passed away from it

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ketv.com/amp/article/family-says-omaha-real-estate-agent-ralph-marasco-died-of-covid-19/31965931

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Phil Titola · « **Reply #8 on:** April 05, 2020, 07:32:49 PM »

Isn't there like a 50% chance we all had it by now since there are so many asymptomatic people?

I'm going to be pissed if they release people that had it and recovered and I stayed home like a good boy and have to be locked away longer.

sys · « **Reply #9 on:** April 05, 2020, 07:36:21 PM »

Quote from: Phil Titola on April 05, 2020, 07:32:49 PM

Isn't there like a 50% chance we all had it by now since there are so many asymptomatic people?

no, that's way too high. saw some epidemiologists speculating about it on twitter the other day and they were talking about the true # of infections in the us being maybe around 2 m.

Phil Titola · « **Reply #10 on:** April 05, 2020, 07:42:41 PM »

Quote from: sys on April 05, 2020, 07:36:21 PM

Quote from: Phil Titola on April 05, 2020, 07:32:49 PM
Isn't there like a 50% chance we all had it by now since there are so many asymptomatic people?

no, that's way too high. saw some epidemiologists speculating about it on twitter the other day and they were talking about the true # of infections in the us being maybe around 2 m.

I assumed that was a little high but the thought came from a couple stories

https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1246240181440540672

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-iceland-testing-lab-50-percent-no-symptoms-20200401-ky344kc3mfcrllwplpcbip4n74-story.html

bubbles4ksu · « **Reply #11 on:** April 05, 2020, 07:59:00 PM »

My cousin in NYC is sure that he had it. 26 and in good shape, said he's had worse bouts of the flu.

edit: the friend he got it from is in his early 30s, he thought he was going to die for a couple days. he called the hospital and was told to stay home.

sys · « **Reply #12 on:** April 05, 2020, 07:59:59 PM »

my understanding was that the sample in that story came from a group of people thought to have been exposed to covid 19 positive persons, not a random sample from the population.

pissclams · « **Reply #13 on:** April 05, 2020, 08:24:54 PM »

sorry about your friend, spracs
i’m hoping she gets through it as quickly as possible

michigancat · « **Reply #14 on:** April 05, 2020, 09:21:29 PM »

Quote from: Spracne on April 05, 2020, 03:31:17 PM

Girl I hung out with for an extended period 3 weeks ago tested positive last week. Just checked in with her, and her update was "I am praying for death. I have never been more sick in my entire life. I can't breathe. I don't have the strength to do anything." 30 y/o, in case you're wondering.

Anyone else have a close friend or family member who has caught this mild flu? If so, post your updates here so that we can mentally prepare for the effects when some of us inevitably fall ill.

Ugh is she in the hospital?

Fedor · « **Reply #15 on:** April 06, 2020, 09:43:24 AM »

My sis who lives in a suburb of Denver (Parker) prob has it. Symptoms are pretty minimal.

Phil Titola · « **Reply #16 on:** April 06, 2020, 10:40:55 AM »

Quote from: sys on April 05, 2020, 07:59:59 PM

my understanding was that the sample in that story came from a group of people thought to have been exposed to covid 19 positive persons, not a random sample from the population.

Right. I was being a bit gE at the 50% number but I bet a lot of us have had it. I mean hell I HOPE I had it.

Rage Against the McKee · « **Reply #17 on:** April 06, 2020, 11:06:54 AM »

I go back and forth between hoping I have had it. What if it is like the chicken pox virus and causes something awful like shingles later in life?

catastrophe · « **Reply #18 on:** April 06, 2020, 11:26:21 AM »

There is some concern about long term lung function. Still lots of unknowns.

Spracne · « **Reply #19 on:** April 06, 2020, 11:45:58 AM »

Yeah, there have even been some reports about it affecting male fertility. But who knows at this point.

sys · « **Reply #20 on:** April 06, 2020, 01:12:02 PM »

Quote from: Phil Titola on April 06, 2020, 10:40:55 AM

but I bet a lot of us have had it.

if a lot of us had already had it, we'd have a death count in the hundreds of thousands or millions by now instead of just breaking 10k today.

Spracne · « **Reply #21 on:** April 06, 2020, 01:14:55 PM »

Quote from: sys on April 06, 2020, 01:12:02 PM

Quote from: Phil Titola on April 06, 2020, 10:40:55 AM
but I bet a lot of us have had it.

if a lot of us had already had it, we'd have a death count in the hundreds of thousands or millions by now instead of just breaking 10k today.

Randomized testing is the only way to figure this out. Fortunately, that is now happening in several cities.

sys · « **Reply #22 on:** April 06, 2020, 01:39:53 PM »

to get any sort of precision right now, sure. but we know enough about the fatality rate to eliminate guesses that are off by orders of magnitudes.

Spracne · « **Reply #23 on:** April 06, 2020, 02:02:12 PM »

Quote from: sys on April 06, 2020, 01:39:53 PM

to get any sort of precision right now, sure. but we know enough about the fatality rate to eliminate guesses that are off by orders of magnitudes.

I'm not so sure, but I'd like to be sure. What is the ratio between confirmed cases and presumptive cases who are simply told to go home and stay there, unless they literally can't breathe?

sys · « **Reply #24 on:** April 06, 2020, 02:36:14 PM »

we have decent evidence (best is from the cruise ship and s korea) that the mortality rate is between 1-2%. call it 1.5 for this. we have 10k dead right now, but that's more an estimate of how many infected we had 3-4 weeks ago. my guess is that between then and now we've slowed transmission pretty substantially, so i'll guess we'll have 40k more dead in four weeks.

so my guess for the true number infected + infected and recovered in the us right now would be 50k divided by 0.015 = 3.33 m.

very wide error bars, obviously (and if i was to guess from other measures, i'd probably go under that), but not wide enough to get to 30 m or 100 m or any sort of number that would be implied for many of us to have already been infected.