24 hour quick poll on kdub's death total

[Phil Titola]

https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1247872519597629440

This is a very dumb tweet.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1247691218240315393?s=20

I may have mentioned that the death toll numbers in the USA are skewed, at best.

 

I haven't watched that clip yet but from what I've gleaned today it's pure dumbass fuel. They live on it

Yes, that's exactly what it is, aimed at MAGAqs who hate reading.
These people are too stupid to know what an autopsy is and how difficult they are to perform on bodies infected by a virus. They also lack the perspective to understand how difficult it is to do autopsies when people in New York are dying, of COVID or COVID related illness, every 3 minutes. They are also too stupid to know that one of the ways that coronavirus kills people is through organ failure, so if someone with liver disease dies after getting infected with coronavirus, it is in fact appropriate to determine that coronavirus killed that person.

Dr. Brix couldn't say any of that crap, so I did it for her.

Translation:  Dr. Brix didn't lie, so I'll do it for her.

You really should be a politician seeing as how you just pull random crap outta your ass and post it as fact.

This is the dumbest argument imaginable seeing as how less than 5% of ALL deaths result in autopsy.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5724047/

Its unfortunate that humans pass on, however at least there are zero deaths from the flu or pneumonia over the last 3-5 weeks, huh?

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Glad to see I’m the subject of another thread.  I guessed the over / under would be around 10k. I now think it’s going to be closer to 30-40k. So I was wrong-ish? But two caveats. First, we don’t really know the death toll with any accuracy. Some of these covid deaths are being “presumed” without even a positive test. And the US is counting deaths much more liberally the many countries, including any death with a positive test even if it may not have been the primary cause.

Second caveat: my initial prediction will still be far, far closer than what many doomsday models predicted. So were the models way off because of bad data (almost certainly) or did shutting down our economy work (probably to some extent), or both? Serious question. I doubt we’ll actually know for quite some time.

At the end of the day, I still believe the hysteria over this virus has been unjustified. Twitter journalism has fanned the flames. And the economic consequences will outweigh the virus itself.

All of this is reasonable. Ok, back to your twitter and tinfoil.

[Dugout DickStone]

Glad to see I’m the subject of another thread.  I guessed the over / under would be around 10k. I now think it’s going to be closer to 30-40k. So I was wrong-ish? But two caveats. First, we don’t really know the death toll with any accuracy. Some of these covid deaths are being “presumed” without even a positive test. And the US is counting deaths much more liberally the many countries, including any death with a positive test even if it may not have been the primary cause.

Second caveat: my initial prediction will still be far, far closer than what many doomsday models predicted. So were the models way off because of bad data (almost certainly) or did shutting down our economy work (probably to some extent), or both? Serious question. I doubt we’ll actually know for quite some time.

At the end of the day, I still believe the hysteria over this virus has been unjustified. Twitter journalism has fanned the flames. And the economic consequences will outweigh the virus itself.

All of this is reasonable. Ok, back to your twitter and tinfoil.

Yes, that is exactly what being off by 300% is.  Please give me more predictions so I can instantly assume the opposite is true.

[DQ12]

This thing is pud.  A once-a-century virus will be about 2-3x as deadly as a single flu season in the face of a little social distancing.

Chalk (another) one up for the US of A.

[chum1]

Should we take undercounting into consideration?

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1247573157504057345

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Good one Dugout! I’d be interested to know what you and other twitfoilers predicted. I’d go back through that massive thread to check, but why bother? My guess is most of you never even tried. But look - KSU is gonna be off by 30,000!! I think my initial prediction will be quite a bit closer to the final number than than the 2.2 million so many of our leaders based their shutdowns upon.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

This thing is pud.  A once-a-century virus will be about 2-3x as deadly as a single flu season in the face of a little social distancing.

Chalk (another) one up for the US of A.

Seriously, I have to concede that the social distancing likely helped. By how much will be really hard to say and the focus of much debate for years to come. I don’t think I’ll ever be convinced that this one-size-fits-all approach so many leaders took was the best course of action.

Just taking Kansas for example, we shut down schools and a crap ton of small business, but left Walmart and grocery stores open. Now obviously people gotta eat so of course those needed to stay open, but if everyone is going to visit those places to buy their food, why the eff did we shut down ma and pa’s stationary store and thousands of other small businesses? How did that really limit the spread?

[DQ12]

if everyone is going to visit those places to buy their food, why the eff did we shut down ma and pa’s stationary store and thousands of other small businesses? How did that really limit the spread?

Because Ma and Pa are interacting with ~25 fewer people per day (or however many people their stationary store attracts on a given day) who they otherwise would have interacted with.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

if everyone is going to visit those places to buy their food, why the eff did we shut down ma and pa’s stationary store and thousands of other small businesses? How did that really limit the spread?

Because Ma and Pa are interacting with ~25 fewer people per day (or however many people their stationary store attracts on a given day) who they otherwise would have interacted with.

Exactly... let ma & pa interact with those folks at Walmart of Dillon's (Sponsor of Sunflower Showdown) that way the stationary stays 'rona free while ma and pa go broke.

[chum1]

Thankfully, not everyone needs to understand how distancing works in order for it to work.

[DQ12]

if everyone is going to visit those places to buy their food, why the eff did we shut down ma and pa’s stationary store and thousands of other small businesses? How did that really limit the spread?

Because Ma and Pa are interacting with ~25 fewer people per day (or however many people their stationary store attracts on a given day) who they otherwise would have interacted with.

Exactly... let ma & pa interact with those folks at Walmart of Dillon's (Sponsor of Sunflower Showdown) that way the stationary stays 'rona free while ma and pa go broke.

How are people struggling with this?  Let's say in a given week, M&P open their business for 5 days and interact with 25 people per day.  They also visit the grocery store on Saturday morning where they interact with 50 people.

Pre Shutdown: M&P are interacting with 175 people.
Shutdown: M&P are interacting with 50 people.

This is only taking into account their own business, and not all the other errands they run (church, restaurants, etc.).  The shutdown severely limits the spread, notwithstanding their weekly trip to the grocery store.

This isn't a complicated thing.  Ma and Pa have certainly sacrificed, but their sacrifice isn't in vain.  Our collective sacrifice has kept us from this thing turning really ugly.  It's a remarkable achievement that we should all be proud of.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

I think what your math is ignoring is that everybody eats. Virtually everyone goes to the grocery store. Or at least one person is every family. So at the end of the day, you haven’t really reduced the exposure. By closing down a bunch of places when everybody is still exposing themselves at concentrated venues (selling food no less!).

A counter argument is that “well, ok, but by limiting the number of venues we can increase the cleaning efforts at those venues.” The problem with that argument is, have you been to a Walmart lately?

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

By the way, this thread is already better than that 144page twitfoil (I’m gonna use this word I just made up at every opportunity because it’s devastatingly accurate and funny) crap-storm. Thanks DLew!

[ChiComCat]

I think what your math is ignoring is that everybody eats. Virtually everyone goes to the grocery store. Or at least one person is every family. So at the end of the day, you haven’t really reduced the exposure. By closing down a bunch of places when everybody is still exposing themselves at concentrated venues (selling food no less!).

A counter argument is that “well, ok, but by limiting the number of venues we can increase the cleaning efforts at those venues.” The problem with that argument is, have you been to a Walmart lately?

One person going to the grocery is absolutely less exposure than everyone going everywhere.

[Dugout DickStone]

Good one Dugout! I’d be interested to know what you and other twitfoilers predicted. I’d go back through that massive thread to check, but why bother? My guess is most of you never even tried. But look - KSU is gonna be off by 30,000!! I think my initial prediction will be quite a bit closer to the final number than than the 2.2 million so many of our leaders based their shutdowns upon.

Congrats on being absolutely wrong by several magnitude.  On the bright side Trump was even more wrong when he shut down America so you are smarter than the President.  So, that is a pretty nice feather

[Dugout DickStone]

I think what your math is ignoring is that everybody eats. Virtually everyone goes to the grocery store. Or at least one person is every family. So at the end of the day, you haven’t really reduced the exposure. By closing down a bunch of places when everybody is still exposing themselves at concentrated venues (selling food no less!).

A counter argument is that “well, ok, but by limiting the number of venues we can increase the cleaning efforts at those venues.” The problem with that argument is, have you been to a Walmart lately?

I know a very very large section of JOCO SAHMs who have had food delivery for years and have not gotten close to a grocery store for weeks.  Now, these people are also too boojie to ever even go to Walmart so there was never any danger of that.

[waks]

I think what your math is ignoring is that everybody eats. Virtually everyone goes to the grocery store. Or at least one person is every family. So at the end of the day, you haven’t really reduced the exposure. By closing down a bunch of places when everybody is still exposing themselves at concentrated venues (selling food no less!).

A counter argument is that “well, ok, but by limiting the number of venues we can increase the cleaning efforts at those venues.” The problem with that argument is, have you been to a Walmart lately?

One person going to the grocery is absolutely less exposure than everyone going everywhere.

It's really not that complicated. I guess you can say it doesn't completely remove risk therefore what's the point.

I bet someone could make a cool graphic showing webs of interaction and common spaces and surfaces that could get the point across.

Only for non-dumbasses

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Good one Dugout! I’d be interested to know what you and other twitfoilers predicted. I’d go back through that massive thread to check, but why bother? My guess is most of you never even tried. But look - KSU is gonna be off by 30,000!! I think my initial prediction will be quite a bit closer to the final number than than the 2.2 million so many of our leaders based their shutdowns upon.

Congrats on being absolutely wrong by several magnitude.  On the bright side Trump was even more wrong when he shut down America so you are smarter than the President.  So, that is a pretty nice feather

I think Trump is a politician. And I understand why politicians do things for political reasons even if I don’t agree on substance. (Actually, I do agree with some of what Trump has done, such as the travel ban and actions to rebuild our emergency stockpiles, and I also agree with some of what Cuomo has done in NY). But the flip side of your argument is that you must agree with Trump! How’s that feel? Along the same lines, Trump is going to go full Trump in a few weeks (moreso than he already is) when he uses the doomsday models to brag about how he saved millions of lives by taking great, decisive leadership. Prepare yourself.

[Dugout DickStone]

Good one Dugout! I’d be interested to know what you and other twitfoilers predicted. I’d go back through that massive thread to check, but why bother? My guess is most of you never even tried. But look - KSU is gonna be off by 30,000!! I think my initial prediction will be quite a bit closer to the final number than than the 2.2 million so many of our leaders based their shutdowns upon.

Congrats on being absolutely wrong by several magnitude.  On the bright side Trump was even more wrong when he shut down America so you are smarter than the President.  So, that is a pretty nice feather

I think Trump is a politician. And I understand why politicians do things for political reasons even if I don’t agree on substance. (Actually, I do agree with some of what Trump has done, such as the travel ban and actions to rebuild our emergency stockpiles, and I also agree with some of what Cuomo has done in NY). But the flip side of your argument is that you must agree with Trump! How’s that feel? Along the same lines, Trump is going to go full Trump in a few weeks (moreso than he already is) when he uses the doomsday models to brag about how he saved millions of lives by taking great, decisive leadership. Prepare yourself.

I agree with Trump on lots of stuff.  Like you do and how shutting down the country was necessary.

[catastrophe]

Good one Dugout! I’d be interested to know what you and other twitfoilers predicted. I’d go back through that massive thread to check, but why bother? My guess is most of you never even tried. But look - KSU is gonna be off by 30,000!! I think my initial prediction will be quite a bit closer to the final number than than the 2.2 million so many of our leaders based their shutdowns upon.

You are saying your prediction is going to be way closer to reality than the model that assumed government took no action to mitigate the spread of the virus. And then you’re using that as a basis to say the threat was blown out of proportion?

Mods, xpost MAGA thread.

[star seed 7]

So is 30-40k at the end of the year the new goalpost? We need a new betting thread.

[Kat Kid]

We definitely need ksuw to make some bets on these predictions.

[passranch]

we should pretty comfortably surpass 40,000 deaths by the end of the month

[sys]

I have to concede that the social distancing likely helped. By how much will be really hard to say

lol.