Author Topic: covid 19 death toll poll (Read 6207 times)

sys · « **on:** March 29, 2020, 01:06:40 PM »

currently at ~ 2300 deaths.

nicname · « **Reply #1 on:** March 29, 2020, 04:38:39 PM »

What percentage/ how many Americans test positive/get this thing?

gatoveintisiete · « **Reply #2 on:** March 29, 2020, 08:32:26 PM »

140 Kansans

puniraptor · « **Reply #3 on:** March 29, 2020, 08:34:12 PM »

Quote from: nicname on March 29, 2020, 04:38:39 PM

What percentage/ how many Americans test positive/get this thing?

15%

puniraptor · « **Reply #4 on:** March 29, 2020, 08:38:30 PM »

after the emergency is over, it will be interesting to see antibody tests to see how many people actually got this thing in order to estimate a true death rate. only sick people and close contacts will actually be tested for the virus

DaBigTrain · « **Reply #5 on:** March 29, 2020, 08:40:28 PM »

https://twitter.com/juddlegum/status/1244394427805769728

nicname · « **Reply #6 on:** March 29, 2020, 11:24:08 PM »

Quote from: puniraptor on March 29, 2020, 08:38:30 PM

after the emergency is over, it will be interesting to see antibody tests to see how many people actually got this thing in order to estimate a true death rate. only sick people and close contacts will actually be tested for the virus

Yeah.

chum1 · « **Reply #7 on:** March 30, 2020, 08:27:26 AM »

https://twitter.com/gregpmiller/status/1244608971954180097

michigancat · « **Reply #8 on:** March 30, 2020, 08:52:58 AM »

Quote from: chum1 on March 30, 2020, 08:27:26 AM

https://twitter.com/gregpmiller/status/1244608971954180097

goEMAW's an optimistic bunch

star seed 7 · « **Reply #9 on:** March 30, 2020, 09:21:42 AM »

Quite the pivot from churches full on Easter

cfbandyman · « **Reply #10 on:** March 30, 2020, 09:22:42 AM »

Quote from: Libdork.9 rolled back from 1.0 on March 30, 2020, 09:21:42 AM

Quite the pivot from churches full on Easter

They're a "we're always at war with Eastasia" after being at war with Eurasia bunch so, no problem for them.

Phil Titola · « **Reply #11 on:** March 30, 2020, 09:38:44 AM »

Quote from: chum1 on March 30, 2020, 08:27:26 AM

https://twitter.com/gregpmiller/status/1244608971954180097

This seems like a throw out a big number to scare some idiots to go inside.

chum1 · « **Reply #12 on:** March 31, 2020, 07:33:12 AM »

https://twitter.com/NorbertElekes/status/1244779883340980226

michigancat · « **Reply #13 on:** March 31, 2020, 08:16:30 AM »

Quote from: chum1 on March 31, 2020, 07:33:12 AM

https://twitter.com/NorbertElekes/status/1244779883340980226

Lots of folks learning about exponential growth this month

IPA4Me · « **Reply #14 on:** March 31, 2020, 08:22:25 AM »

It's going to be ugly. Doubling rate at 3 days.

Let's say it stays there for 30 days. That's 10 doubles. 3M+ in a month.

Not looking good, folks.

Edit: I hope it doesn't stay at that rate but I'm afraid it will.

steve dave · « **Reply #15 on:** March 31, 2020, 08:39:42 AM »

It won’t

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

IPA4Me · « **Reply #16 on:** March 31, 2020, 08:42:06 AM »

I hope you're right SD. Pray it's a short lived doubling rate and we flatten out.

catastrophe · « **Reply #17 on:** March 31, 2020, 09:02:09 AM »

I mean infection rate probably has/will, but the ship has sailed on us getting a good figure on that. Death rate will for sure slow down in April tho.

cfbandyman · « **Reply #18 on:** March 31, 2020, 09:59:22 AM »

We'll probably double for two-three weeks. It really looks like with this thing it's 2 weeks to see all the cases manifest, and then an additional 2 weeks to see the deaths from it. The tougher part of this whole thing though is that there is so much unevenness in the response nation wide that when an area like let's say NY peaks, other places like FL, GA, etc, are still on their way to their peaks.

And yes, lots of people are going to learn what exponential growth looks like, and why at the beginning "this doesn't look like a big deal" gets out of hand really quickly.

Phil Titola · « **Reply #19 on:** March 31, 2020, 10:42:21 AM »

Let's take KC metro as a case study. Big groups were shut down around the 17th, many offices started sending people home the Friday before that. The main metro counties announced their stay home orders on the 23rd.

Let's assume a lot of the population has been better at staying at home and limiting their exposure (I know that's not been 100% great), given 14 day incubation period shouldn't we be seeing an impact in the numbers starting now and into next week? If not, there is going to be a lot of questions concerning the benefits of distancing.

edit, of course you're going to have more confirmed cases as testing gets better but still overall I'd think we'd see a dip in the numbers soon.

star seed 7 · « **Reply #20 on:** March 31, 2020, 10:46:03 AM »

That's one reason I've been proud of the kc metro to not only act fairly early but for the most part unified.

Phil Titola · « **Reply #21 on:** March 31, 2020, 10:50:01 AM »

Quote from: Libdork.9 rolled back from 1.0 on March 31, 2020, 10:46:03 AM

That's one reason I've been proud of the kc metro to not only act fairly early but for the most part unified.

Me too. Announced earlier than a lot of much worse places numbers wise. Great to see the bi-state cooperating on this.

cfbandyman · « **Reply #22 on:** March 31, 2020, 11:05:24 AM »

Quote from: Phil Titola on March 31, 2020, 10:42:21 AM

Let's take KC metro as a case study. Big groups were shut down around the 17th, many offices started sending people home the Friday before that. The main metro counties announced their stay home orders on the 23rd.

Let's assume a lot of the population has been better at staying at home and limiting their exposure (I know that's not been 100% great), given 14 day incubation period shouldn't we be seeing an impact in the numbers starting now and into next week? If not, there is going to be a lot of questions concerning the benefits of distancing.

edit, of course you're going to have more confirmed cases as testing gets better but still overall I'd think we'd see a dip in the numbers soon.

That's going to be a bit of a fallacy with this for a while. There won't really be a "dip" more of a sustain (constant days of 100 new cases in the metro are per day or w/e for example). What we really need to see if the growth in cases per day not increase, that change will be the real first sign and you are starting to see that a bit in the US's total numbers. But even when you look at Italy, France, Spain, they still are having "sustained" amounts of new cases, the general reversal isn't going to be felt for a while, let alone next week.

Do agree I am pretty happy with how the KC metro, and especially KS has been on this. Took a lot of bold strokes earlier than other areas and it hopefully will prove itself out.

Phil Titola · « **Reply #23 on:** March 31, 2020, 11:11:39 AM »

Quote from: cfbandyman on March 31, 2020, 11:05:24 AM

Quote from: Phil Titola on March 31, 2020, 10:42:21 AM
Let's take KC metro as a case study. Big groups were shut down around the 17th, many offices started sending people home the Friday before that. The main metro counties announced their stay home orders on the 23rd.

Let's assume a lot of the population has been better at staying at home and limiting their exposure (I know that's not been 100% great), given 14 day incubation period shouldn't we be seeing an impact in the numbers starting now and into next week? If not, there is going to be a lot of questions concerning the benefits of distancing.

edit, of course you're going to have more confirmed cases as testing gets better but still overall I'd think we'd see a dip in the numbers soon.

That's going to be a bit of a fallacy with this for a while. There won't really be a "dip" more of a sustain (constant days of 100 new cases in the metro are per day or w/e for example). What we really need to see if the growth in cases per day not increase, that change will be the real first sign and you are starting to see that a bit in the US's total numbers. But even when you look at Italy, France, Spain, they still are having "sustained" amounts of new cases, the general reversal isn't going to be felt for a while, let alone next week.

Do agree I am pretty happy with how the KC metro, and especially KS has been on this. Took a lot of bold strokes earlier than other areas and it hopefully will prove itself out.

I meant a dip in new daily cases.

cfbandyman · « **Reply #24 on:** March 31, 2020, 11:16:29 AM »

Quote from: Phil Titola on March 31, 2020, 11:11:39 AM

Quote from: cfbandyman on March 31, 2020, 11:05:24 AM
Quote from: Phil Titola on March 31, 2020, 10:42:21 AM
Let's take KC metro as a case study. Big groups were shut down around the 17th, many offices started sending people home the Friday before that. The main metro counties announced their stay home orders on the 23rd.

Let's assume a lot of the population has been better at staying at home and limiting their exposure (I know that's not been 100% great), given 14 day incubation period shouldn't we be seeing an impact in the numbers starting now and into next week? If not, there is going to be a lot of questions concerning the benefits of distancing.

edit, of course you're going to have more confirmed cases as testing gets better but still overall I'd think we'd see a dip in the numbers soon.

That's going to be a bit of a fallacy with this for a while. There won't really be a "dip" more of a sustain (constant days of 100 new cases in the metro are per day or w/e for example). What we really need to see if the growth in cases per day not increase, that change will be the real first sign and you are starting to see that a bit in the US's total numbers. But even when you look at Italy, France, Spain, they still are having "sustained" amounts of new cases, the general reversal isn't going to be felt for a while, let alone next week.

Do agree I am pretty happy with how the KC metro, and especially KS has been on this. Took a lot of bold strokes earlier than other areas and it hopefully will prove itself out.

I meant a dip in new daily cases.

That's more than fair, but I think that's still a bit off. Italy's first batch of #s came in today for and they continue a slow improvement. But that dip is very drawn out when you look at it

Poll

how many covid 19 deaths will be reported in the united states by may 31 2020?

Author Topic: covid 19 death toll poll (Read 6207 times)