CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[sys]

pretty crude, but better than nothing, look at a thanksgiving effect.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1339683889510379520

[steve dave]

doom

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1339752500400943107

[Justwin]

pretty crude, but better than nothing, look at a thanksgiving effect.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1339683889510379520

Definitely a crude look.  In Kansas, the seven-day average on November 26 was 2771.  The current seven-day average is 2033.  The seven-day average on December 10 was 2563.  The seven-day average has never been above 2771 since November 26.  There is almost no way you could convince me that there was/is any kind of a Thanksgiving bump.

All numbers are taken from Worldometers.

[michigancat]

I bet Massachusetts changed behavior for Thanksgiving a lot more than Kansas or Ohio

[bucket]

pretty crude, but better than nothing, look at a thanksgiving effect.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1339683889510379520

Definitely a crude look.  In Kansas, the seven-day average on November 26 was 2771.  The current seven-day average is 2033.  The seven-day average on December 10 was 2563.  The seven-day average has never been above 2771 since November 26.  There is almost no way you could convince me that there was/is any kind of a Thanksgiving bump.

All numbers are taken from Worldometers.

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1339753250883559427

Midwest is the only region that has seen a dip in hospitilizations.

[Justwin]

I bet Massachusetts changed behavior for Thanksgiving a lot more than Kansas or Ohio

In the sense that Kansas and Ohio generally were not socially distancing etc. before Thanksgiving, so their behavior on Thanksgiving was no different, whereas Massachusetts socially distanced before Thanksgiving, and then for one day said screw it, we're not socially distancing for this one day?

[michigancat]

I bet Massachusetts changed behavior for Thanksgiving a lot more than Kansas or Ohio

In the sense that Kansas and Ohio generally were not socially distancing etc. before Thanksgiving, so their behavior on Thanksgiving was no different, whereas Massachusetts socially distanced before Thanksgiving, and then for one day said screw it, we're not socially distancing for this one day?

yes

Wish he would have done California but I think we were starting to spike sooner

[Justwin]

I bet Massachusetts changed behavior for Thanksgiving a lot more than Kansas or Ohio

In the sense that Kansas and Ohio generally were not socially distancing etc. before Thanksgiving, so their behavior on Thanksgiving was no different, whereas Massachusetts socially distanced before Thanksgiving, and then for one day said screw it, we're not socially distancing for this one day?

yes

Wish he would have done California but I think we were starting to spike sooner

I can see that in general, but I would be really interested in seeing what his model says the Thanksgiving bump for Kansas is.  If you look at the line  for the seven-day average for Kansas, it's hard to see how there could be any kind of Thanksgiving bump.  There is a dip immediately following Thanksgiving almost certainly due to people not getting tested, counties not reporting and the like.  There is a bump that follows it to make up for the cases that didn't get reported and then the downward trend continues.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/Kansas

My two thoughts on this are:

1.  If your model is finding a positive effect from Thanksgiving for Kansas, your model is looking for a result and designed to do so.

2.  If your model does not find a positive result from Kansas, is it really plausible that there is the same amount of interaction on Thanksgiving as prior to it.  There's almost no way that people from around the state are all getting together on one day.  Then add in the people that came in from out of state and the amount of social distancing is almost certainly less in Kansas than it was prior to Thanksgiving.  In normal years, there is less social distancing on Thanksgiving than on the days leading up to it.

[sys]

if you opened bedford's thread, the reason he did those three states and not any others was because reporting dates in others are too imprecise for easy analysis.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1339683881910296576

[nicname]

I bet Massachusetts changed behavior for Thanksgiving a lot more than Kansas or Ohio

In the sense that Kansas and Ohio generally were not socially distancing etc. before Thanksgiving, so their behavior on Thanksgiving was no different, whereas Massachusetts socially distanced before Thanksgiving, and then for one day said screw it, we're not socially distancing for this one day?

yes

Wish he would have done California but I think we were starting to spike sooner

I can see that in general, but I would be really interested in seeing what his model says the Thanksgiving bump for Kansas is.  If you look at the line  for the seven-day average for Kansas, it's hard to see how there could be any kind of Thanksgiving bump.  There is a dip immediately following Thanksgiving almost certainly due to people not getting tested, counties not reporting and the like.  There is a bump that follows it to make up for the cases that didn't get reported and then the downward trend continues.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/Kansas

My two thoughts on this are:

1.  If your model is finding a positive effect from Thanksgiving for Kansas, your model is looking for a result and designed to do so.

2.  If your model does not find a positive result from Kansas, is it really plausible that there is the same amount of interaction on Thanksgiving as prior to it.  There's almost no way that people from around the state are all getting together on one day.  Then add in the people that came in from out of state and the amount of social distancing is almost certainly less in Kansas than it was prior to Thanksgiving.  In normal years, there is less social distancing on Thanksgiving than on the days leading up to it.

It's been mentioned here before, but it also shows that aside from extreme lockdowns and shutdowns "virus gonna virus." That's not saying mask wearing and social distancing doesn't slow the spread. It does.

If a california or, even worse, new york responded to covid the way the dakotas did, they would have been in a world of hurt. That said, like many in the northern plains, the dakotas seem to be on a very strong downward trend at this point. 

[Trim]

Plot twist!

https://www.dodgeglobe.com/story/news/2020/12/17/joyce-warshaw-relieved-outcome-but-points-troubling-incidents/3943676001/

[sonofdaxjones]

Telling people to wear masks during a pandemic is committing murder (Kansas)

[steve dave]

gottlieb speculating right now that the government is holding back the pfizer vaccine because they anticipate shipping moderna next week and it could stress the system by delivering both at the same time in mass. he's obviously on the pfizer board and said the gov hasn't told pfizer why so he's just guessing.

[steve dave]

also, with pence getting his first dose of the vaccine on air just now, good to remember this doozy

[sonofdaxjones]

The great thing about our modern world is that it's not rapidly changing every single day.   Static, arguably monolithic, even lethargic. 

Extremely astute observation, Steve

[Phil Titola]

Except it was only Mike Pence that was trying to peddle this batch of lies.  In this respect nothing has really changed from March to this week when chips finally started going out.

[Phil Titola]

I think a few well placed gE'rs #sleevesup would been a lot better public confidence building move than Pence and this dude.

https://twitter.com/Surgeon_General/status/1339919885690949632?s=20

[bucket]

Except it was only Mike Pence that was trying to peddle this batch of lies.  In this respect nothing has really changed from March to this week when chips finally started going out.

This morning Mike Pence gave a speech before being given the vaccine, and he assured the American people that 'we're rounding the curve.'

 

[sonofdaxjones]

Except it was only Mike Pence that was trying to peddle this batch of lies.  In this respect nothing has really changed from March to this week when chips finally started going out.

Phil, remember when you and the rest of the CoronaBro's thought that Europe was really kicking the Rona's ass?

It's been a couple of days since I looked, but it was something along the lines of 43 out of the last 45 days of 200K plus new daily cases in Europe.  With no Euro countries with an attack rate of less than 60, and most still at 120 plus.

Global pandemic's, man.

[catastrophe]

The great thing about our modern world is that it's not rapidly changing every single day.   Static, arguably monolithic, even lethargic. 

Extremely astute observation, Steve

The title of the article literally is in response to widespread warning about what is happening now.

[Sandstone Outcropping]

Several healthcare workers here in Smallville have the BioNTechs on board!  https://www.wibw.com/2020/12/16/employees-at-ascension-via-christi-in-manhattan-first-to-receive-covid-19-vaccine-in-riley-county/

Fantastic human being Dr Singh getting his vaccine in MHK:

[wetwillie]

Do they give you a tattoo indicating you have been chipped?

[Sandstone Outcropping]

Do they give you a tattoo indicating you have been chipped?

I believe they give you a handout with info about how you can log in and create a profile so you can report any side effects, etc.

[wetwillie]

I didn’t think the mark of the beast would happen in my lifetime but here we are.

[Trim]

Do they give you a tattoo indicating you have been chipped?

You have to buy that separately, but it'll be worth it.