CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[michigancat]

Hasn't this guy tried to float this "less deadly" theory about a month ago or was that someone else?

https://nypost.com/2020/06/21/coronavirus-is-weakening-could-disappear-on-its-own-italian-doctor/

Yes, same guy

[DQ12]

Hasn't this guy tried to float this "less deadly" theory about a month ago or was that someone else?

https://nypost.com/2020/06/21/coronavirus-is-weakening-could-disappear-on-its-own-italian-doctor/

Who knows whether this is (a) true; and (b) if it is true, how it applies in the American context.  But if the virus has mutated to become less deadly, that would be a great stroke of luck (or result of masks, distancing, etc.).

[sonofdaxjones]

As of yesterday, the 3 and 7 day moving averages of new infections in AL have fallen off a cliff, the 14 day moving average is flat.

The last 5 days of daily numbers have plummeted by half since the last peak.   We'll see . . .

[Phil Titola]

As of yesterday, the 3 and 7 day moving averages of new infections in AL have fallen off a cliff, the 14 day moving average is flat.

The last 5 days of daily numbers have plummeted by half since the last peak.   We'll see . . .

Great news dax!

[Dugout DickStone]

As of yesterday, the 3 and 7 day moving averages of new infections in AL have fallen off a cliff, the 14 day moving average is flat.

The last 5 days of daily numbers have plummeted by half since the last peak.   We'll see . . .

Why?  What did they do?

[catastrophe]

Interesting

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1275061694604115968

I’d expect younger folks are driving the spike because last wave was mostly driven by hospital testing while this includes lots of asymptomatic testing.

[michigancat]

Interesting

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1275061694604115968

I’d expect younger folks are driving the spike because last wave was mostly driven by hospital testing while this includes lots of asymptomatic testing.

yeah I'd expect it to go down quite a bit with more testing, but that seems really significant. Also, the week of 6/14 they had a 10.5% positivity rate when they'd been below 6% since April.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

[sonofdaxjones]

As of yesterday, the 3 and 7 day moving averages of new infections in AL have fallen off a cliff, the 14 day moving average is flat.

The last 5 days of daily numbers have plummeted by half since the last peak.   We'll see . . .

Why?  What did they do?

It could be a number of things, good and bad.  Less testing?   I haven't looked at those numbers.   Montgomery mandatory mask order?   My mask observos from a couple of quick errands yesterday were quite mixed around here, very disappointing.   

Hospitalizations down 100 in the last 5 days.

Since we're talking college football, the morbidity rate in the 5-24 age range here is .2% of 831 confirmed Covid-19 deaths.   Infection rate of the college age range is 16.64% of 30,301 confirmed cases. 

[michigancat]

this guy went to harvard

https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1275095890064261120

[catastrophe]

Interesting

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1275061694604115968

I’d expect younger folks are driving the spike because last wave was mostly driven by hospital testing while this includes lots of asymptomatic testing.

yeah I'd expect it to go down quite a bit with more testing, but that seems really significant. Also, the week of 6/14 they had a 10.5% positivity rate when they'd been below 6% since April.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

Sure. I didn’t mean to discount young dumbassery that surely followed stuff opening back up.

[DQ12]

this guy went to harvard

https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1275095890064261120

I don't understand the distinction.

[8manpick]

this guy went to harvard

https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1275095890064261120

I don't understand the distinction.

I believe that is rusty’s point

[michigancat]

actually reading more about it, it may not be as bad as it seems.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/342565-florida-changes-icu-reporting

basically, they are saying some ICU beds are used to isolate covid patients even if they don't need the ICU bed (as it's likely easier to contain the virus in an ICU). Which I suppose is reasonable, but I think they should probably count as an occupied ICU bed at the end of the day.

[sys]

Interesting

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1275061694604115968

i like derek, but there is no way you can draw that kind of inference from the available data.  we're testing 3x the people today that we were in mid-april (and the pool of infected people is smaller).  the data aren't remotely comparable.

[sys]

I’d expect younger folks are driving the spike because last wave was mostly driven by hospital testing while this includes lots of asymptomatic testing.

yes.

[sys]

Who knows whether this is (a) true; and (b) if it is true, how it applies in the American context.  But if the virus has mutated to become less deadly, that would be a great stroke of luck (or result of masks, distancing, etc.).

it's not true, dlew.  it's not remotely plausible.

[DQ12]

Who knows whether this is (a) true; and (b) if it is true, how it applies in the American context.  But if the virus has mutated to become less deadly, that would be a great stroke of luck (or result of masks, distancing, etc.).

it's not true, dlew.  it's not remotely plausible.

It's not possible for the virus to mutate to a less deadly form?

[sonofdaxjones]

Who knows whether this is (a) true; and (b) if it is true, how it applies in the American context.  But if the virus has mutated to become less deadly, that would be a great stroke of luck (or result of masks, distancing, etc.).

it's not true, dlew.  it's not remotely plausible.

It's not possible for the virus to mutate to a less deadly form?

sys is the biggest spit baller on this board, right next to cRusty

[sys]

It's not possible for the virus to mutate to a less deadly form?

sure that's possible.

but the doctor has no evidence that has happened, he's just pulling at random hair-brained hypotheses to explain a phenomenon that really needs no explaining (his patients are less sick for the same reason that the average age of coronavirus cases in the us has dropped) despite not having any supporting evidence and tossing those to the popular press who distort the hypotheses even further.

keep in mind that in order for a mutation to have any meaningful effect, it not only has to come into existence, it also has to spread at a faster rate than other virus.  this at a time when the incidence of the virus has been dropping rapidly in italy, movement with italy has been controlled and borders have been closed.  the incidence of the virus in all neighboring countries has also been rapidly decreasing.

even granting that a beneficial mutation exists in this guy's hospital (no evidence for this exists), and granting that it has spread locally (no evidence for this exists), what mechanism could possibly promote the spread of this strain of virus to other areas where the virus is already widely present and then promote the new strain outcompeting existing strains already present?

it's a farce and the popular press promote it because they're just completely scientifically illiterate.

[michigancat]

it's a farce and the popular press promote it because they're just completely scientifically illiterate.

also because people who think we overreacted will gobble it up and give them lots of pageviews

[DQ12]

It's not possible for the virus to mutate to a less deadly form?

sure that's possible.

but the doctor has no evidence that has happened, he's just pulling at random hair-brained hypotheses to explain a phenomenon that really needs no explaining (his patients are less sick for the same reason that the average age of coronavirus cases in the us has dropped) despite not having any supporting evidence and tossing those to the popular press who distort the hypotheses even further.

keep in mind that in order for a mutation to have any meaningful effect, it not only has to come into existence, it also has to spread at a faster rate than other virus.  this at a time when the incidence of the virus has been dropping rapidly in italy, movement with italy has been controlled and borders have been closed.  the incidence of the virus in all neighboring countries has also been rapidly decreasing.

even granting that a beneficial mutation exists in this guy's hospital (no evidence for this exists), and granting that it has spread locally (no evidence for this exists), what mechanism could possibly promote the spread of this strain of virus to other areas where the virus is already widely present and then promote the new strain outcompeting existing strains already present?

it's a farce and the popular press promote it because they're just completely scientifically illiterate.

Makes sense.  TY for the explanation.

[Phil Titola]

This is kind of the presumption I've been working on since we keep seeing cases rise faster yet communities keep opening up, so good to see an actual health director say ig

“The most important data continues to be looking at our death data and our hospitalization data and our rate of positivity, and ... all of the indicators really point to the fact that we are fairly stable and that we in fact continue to slow the spread of COVID-19,” Barbara Ferrer, the county’s health director, said Friday.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-22/alarmed-by-spiking-coronavirus-numbers-heres-why-officials-insist-they-arent-worried

[purplehaze]

It's not possible for the virus to mutate to a less deadly form?

sure that's possible.

but the doctor has no evidence that has happened, he's just pulling at random hair-brained hypotheses to explain a phenomenon that really needs no explaining (his patients are less sick for the same reason that the average age of coronavirus cases in the us has dropped) despite not having any supporting evidence and tossing those to the popular press who distort the hypotheses even further.

keep in mind that in order for a mutation to have any meaningful effect, it not only has to come into existence, it also has to spread at a faster rate than other virus.  this at a time when the incidence of the virus has been dropping rapidly in italy, movement with italy has been controlled and borders have been closed.  the incidence of the virus in all neighboring countries has also been rapidly decreasing.

even granting that a beneficial mutation exists in this guy's hospital (no evidence for this exists), and granting that it has spread locally (no evidence for this exists), what mechanism could possibly promote the spread of this strain of virus to other areas where the virus is already widely present and then promote the new strain outcompeting existing strains already present?

it's a farce and the popular press promote it because they're just completely scientifically illiterate.

Makes sense.  TY for the explanation.

but in general, viruses mutate to become less lethal, since their only purpose is to spread, it is evolutionarily beneficial not to kill your host. That's partly why the H1N1 that caused the spanish flu is still in circulation but has a much lower mortality rate. I'm not a virologist and don't know what the typical timespan is for mutations to have this effect, but I'd assume it would take longer than 6 months.

[sys]

but in general, viruses mutate to become less lethal, since their only purpose is to spread, it is evolutionarily beneficial not to kill your host. That's partly why the H1N1 that caused the spanish flu is still in circulation but has a much lower mortality rate. I'm not a virologist and don't know what the typical timespan is for mutations to have this effect, but I'd assume it would take longer than 6 months.

(very generally) most beneficial mutations in a virus yield a competitive advantage by causing the virus to spread to new hosts more easily.  in many viruses, this correlates with lesser lethality because if the virus makes the host too sick it doesn't interact with other conspecifics as much and hence transmission is lower than if they host was less sick.

however, in this virus, most transmission occurs in the period while the host is asymptomatic and in the first few days after symptoms appear.  by the time severe symptoms and death occur, the host is largely post-transmissive.  accordingly, there is little selective pressure on lethality.  whatever happens to the host after it is no longer transmissive is close to selectively neutral.

that's not to say that it's impossible that a mutation that renders the virus less virulent would have a selective advantage, it's just less likely because one of the main selection pathways is much reduced in this virus.

[sonofdaxjones]

Texas is on a two day slide in infections.   Hospitalizations are up, overall Texas Hospitals still has 15,000 staffed beds available and over 1500 ICU beds available.

Texas is at peak testing, running 30K plus viral detection/antibody tests a day.