CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[treysolid]

One particular subtype with a non-silent (Aspartate to Glycine) mutation at 614th position of the Spike protein (D614G) rapidly outcompeted other pre-existing subtypes,

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.075911v1

This is mildly misleading because that "out-competition" is heavily reliant upon the genetic make-up of the host

Translation:  There is no definitive answers as of yet, anyone saying that they have definitive answers or implying that they do is a total and complete dumbass.   Anyone that believes that any SARS-Covid-19 study to dates is the definitive answer is a total moron.

That's not a good "translation" of what I said. The caveat with this particular virus mutation is that it exploits a delC in a specific allele in the host, and the prevalence of this host mutation will have a large impact on transmission.

[MakeItRain]

I hate bringing this back to Iowa but our governor is a colossal eff up, she's been far and away the most inept governor in the country in handing this, beating out Brian Kemp by a nose, this is absurd.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2020/05/21/coronavirus-governor-kim-reynolds-test-iowa-site-linn-county-covid/5229515002/

From the second most populated county in the state

Since the Test Iowa Cedar Rapids site at Kirkwood Community College opened on May 7, Kitzmann wrote there had been 823 tests completed there as of Monday. But officials had received only 20 results by then. Of those, 16 were inconclusive.

She's been repeatedly asked about these issues with Test Iowa and has repeatedly denied that there has been issues.

Also worth noting that as we "open up" today, Iowa had its highest number of new cases since May 11 and the most number of deaths period.

[michigancat]

I hate bringing this back to Iowa but our governor is a colossal eff up, she's been far and away the most inept governor in the country in handing this, beating out Brian Kemp by a nose, this is absurd.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2020/05/21/coronavirus-governor-kim-reynolds-test-iowa-site-linn-county-covid/5229515002/

From the second most populated county in the state

Since the Test Iowa Cedar Rapids site at Kirkwood Community College opened on May 7, Kitzmann wrote there had been 823 tests completed there as of Monday. But officials had received only 20 results by then. Of those, 16 were inconclusive.

She's been repeatedly asked about these issues with Test Iowa and has repeatedly denied that there has been issues.

Also worth noting that as we "open up" today, Iowa had its highest number of new cases since May 11 and the most number of deaths period.

I appreciate your Iowa updates. upper Midwest not looking too hot right now.

(Is Iowa upper Midwest?)

[Trim]

Canada, at least BC, probably isn't letting us come until 2021. 

[MakeItRain]

I hate bringing this back to Iowa but our governor is a colossal eff up, she's been far and away the most inept governor in the country in handing this, beating out Brian Kemp by a nose, this is absurd.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2020/05/21/coronavirus-governor-kim-reynolds-test-iowa-site-linn-county-covid/5229515002/

From the second most populated county in the state

Since the Test Iowa Cedar Rapids site at Kirkwood Community College opened on May 7, Kitzmann wrote there had been 823 tests completed there as of Monday. But officials had received only 20 results by then. Of those, 16 were inconclusive.

She's been repeatedly asked about these issues with Test Iowa and has repeatedly denied that there has been issues.

Also worth noting that as we "open up" today, Iowa had its highest number of new cases since May 11 and the most number of deaths period.

I appreciate your Iowa updates. upper Midwest not looking too hot right now.

(Is Iowa upper Midwest?)

Yes

[treysolid]

Idea to help future-proof pandemics:

Since sports team owners refuse to pay for the construction of their own stadiums/arenas, we should require that they all be built up to code with hospitals (proper ventilation, etc.) so that they can be easily converted during a pandemic. They are conveniently situated in or near urban areas most likely to be affected and won't be in use for sports or concerts anyway during that time.

[Phil Titola]

We (USA) suck.

https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1264362635664949249?s=19

[chum1]

https://twitter.com/scottpasmoretv/status/1264394565861232640

[wetwillie]

That’s a swimming pool chum

[michigancat]

We (USA) suck.

https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1264362635664949249?s=19

Let's just wait till we can test a million a day and an API from google before we do anything

Also

Analog contact tracing breaks down when infection numbers are high

I've seen this repeated in a few articles and I don't understand it. It seems like you just wouldn't be able to keep numbers down entirely but contact tracing seems like it would still help a lot.

[michigancat]

https://twitter.com/alexismadrigal/status/1264434095632736258

[sys]

Analog contact tracing breaks down when infection numbers are high

I've seen this repeated in a few articles and I don't understand it. It seems like you just wouldn't be able to keep numbers down entirely but contact tracing seems like it would still help a lot.

it's just another way for the united states to give up without trying because trying seems hard.

[michigancat]

Just so I understand correctly, by mixing in antibody testing it will screw with the new infection numbers from a time perspective.

Does it also have a tendency to drive down infection rate as a function of time? Ie the PCR testing could actually have had rising infection rate and stagnant testing capacity with time during the opening phases? Is that breakdown known?

PCR tests tell you who is actively infected, antibody tells you someone had it at some point.

Combining results likely lowers the calculated positive rates because antibody tests are probably more likely to be used for someone who's asymptomatic. There's no real argument for them to be combined unless you're trying to determine herd immunity (and even then I'm not sure it's good to combining them because in theory people could be tested twice).

[sys]

there's no argument for combining them.

i'm still unsure that positive antibody tests are counted as a new cases (because they shouldn't be, because they aren't new cases).  i think the best that can be done for now in terms of data interpretation is to just ignore the issue and hope/assume the numbers of antibody tests are small.

hopefully the issue is resolved soon.

[Phil Titola]

I'm even fine with them being counted as new cases but don't mix antibody and pcr in the % positive test count, that sways the numbers and makes them dishonest that we are testing enough of the population to know our active cases which I see as biggest benefit of that metric.

[Woogy]

Analog contact tracing breaks down when infection numbers are high

I've seen this repeated in a few articles and I don't understand it. It seems like you just wouldn't be able to keep numbers down entirely but contact tracing seems like it would still help a lot.

it's just another way for the united states to give up without trying because trying seems hard.

My wife spent years doing this for the county health dept where she worked.

Outbreaks of salmonella, e coli, TB, whooping cough, even some std's.

Just trying to gather names and accurate contact info of those you ran across, say 2 weeks ago, is significant enough. Then the abuse from those being contacted. Not everyone, but enough telling you to eff off, just cause, eff you. Especially if it required some action on their part like getting a test. Now add a two week self quarantine, and the push back will go through the roof, both for those being contacted, but also the pool of people willing to be tracers will dry up in really short order.

Contact tracing was the part of her job you couldn't pay her enough to return to.

[Phil Titola]

I can't believe if someone co tscted you today said you may have been exposed to this virus that anybody would say eff off but such is America

[michigancat]

Analog contact tracing breaks down when infection numbers are high

I've seen this repeated in a few articles and I don't understand it. It seems like you just wouldn't be able to keep numbers down entirely but contact tracing seems like it would still help a lot.

it's just another way for the united states to give up without trying because trying seems hard.

My wife spent years doing this for the county health dept where she worked.

Outbreaks of salmonella, e coli, TB, whooping cough, even some std's.

Just trying to gather names and accurate contact info of those you ran across, say 2 weeks ago, is significant enough. Then the abuse from those being contacted. Not everyone, but enough telling you to eff off, just cause, eff you. Especially if it required some action on their part like getting a test. Now add a two week self quarantine, and the push back will go through the roof, both for those being contacted, but also the pool of people willing to be tracers will dry up in really short order.

Contact tracing was the part of her job you couldn't pay her enough to return to.

Lotta folks out of work right now.

And really this is something that solid leadership could help with. Most people have no idea what contract tracing is, but if someone explained what it was and how it helps, people would be more receptive than they may have been in the past I think.

[michigancat]

Would have been a lot easier to do when things were locked down, too

[michigancat]

Also, woogy illustrated sys's point really well. Sounds too hard for Americans so let's just wait for an app

[michigancat]

We need guaranteed sick pay! I don't fault these hairstylists at all, they're just trying to survive. The government needs to guarantee they can stay home when they get sick and not go broke.

https://twitter.com/wkamaubell/status/1264333483670814720

[Phil Titola]

Sick people should stay home. eff that lady and blaming the state easing lockdown is dumb

[michigancat]

Sick people should stay home. eff that lady and blaming the state easing lockdown is dumb

She hasn't been able to work for a month and a half! Even in Springfield $1200 go that far.

I blame the government for creating the situation that forces people to choose between paying rent or possibly infecting other people (and probably making themselves sicker in the process)

[Phil Titola]

Sick people should stay home. eff that lady and blaming the state easing lockdown is dumb

She hasn't been able to work for a month and a half! Even in Springfield $1200 go that far.

I blame the government for creating the situation that forces people to choose between paying rent or possibly infecting other people (and probably making themselves sicker in the process)

She would still be eligible for the 800 a week in unemployment but yes we need a better sick leave option for people

[wetwillie]

Sick people should stay home. eff that lady and blaming the state easing lockdown is dumb

She hasn't been able to work for a month and a half! Even in Springfield $1200 go that far.

I blame the government for creating the situation that forces people to choose between paying rent or possibly infecting other people (and probably making themselves sicker in the process)

She would still be eligible for the 800 a week in unemployment but yes we need a better sick leave option for people

That’s going away in 8 weeks