Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1049879 times)

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Offline DQ12

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We're shooting for <1700 today.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline Phil Titola

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We're shooting for <1700 today.

I'm doing my part, not dying today of COVID19 I can promise you.

Offline MakeItRain

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We're shooting for <1700 today.

Why have you increased this number by 100 each of the last two days when the number has come in under your target goal each day?

Offline sonofdaxjones

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https://www.wsfa.com/2020/05/20/montgomery-leaders-give-update-covid-/

:frown:

Let's hope things improve quickly there.

yeah that seems bad. is there meat packing or something there driving the outbreak? @sonofdaxjones?

Nope, likely not smart people acting like it's BAU.   Also, that whole East-West Interstate corridor from Baton Rouge to West, GA is deep red in terms of historical cases per JH.    The North-South Corridor from Mobile to Montgomery is is mostly deep red as well with the coastal East West Corridor from New Orleans to Mobile to West FL in deep red historically.   This is also a heavy energy/manufacturing/transportation corridor deemed essential in LA-MS-AL-FL. 


Offline DQ12

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We're shooting for <1700 today.

Why have you increased this number by 100 each of the last two days when the number has come in under your target goal each day?
Because of the weekly cycle.  In the last few weeks, numbers start falling beginning on Friday and continue to fall through monday, then numbers steadily increase until the following Friday.  That's kind of changed.  In April, the way it went was numbers begin falling on Wednesday and continue to fall until the following monday, and then the week's biggest spike on Tuesday.  I'm sure it's just reporting idiosyncracies, but that's why the 7 day average is really the thing to look at. 

We had 1908 last thursday, so ~1700 (or ~1600) today would be a pretty significant drop in the 7 day average.  1600 today would take us to 7 day average of 1260, down from 1304, which is the current mark.  1700 would still put us at 1274.  The 7 day average last thursday was 1464.  Two weeks ago it was 1812. 

You can see the weekly pattern play out on this sheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k_QmWvmQOEYNZM70fbnO82vAg4n903Mb3chyHV_SCPE/edit#gid=0
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 01:12:39 PM by DQ12 »


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline catastrophe

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Most of the public only cares about how widespread infection is, in which case I don’t see a downside to combining.

PCR = how widespread infection is currently (active infections, people that can spread the disease)
Antibody = how widespread infection may have been over time (people that have been infected at some point, they can't necessarily spread it if positive)

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/15/834497497/antibody-tests-for-coronavirus-can-miss-the-mark
PCR tests reported on a daily basis are wildly unreliable, though. That’s why they use rolling 7 day averages as a best approximation.

Which is to say if you’re relying on the test numbers to give you an up to date estimate of the number of infected, you’re going to be misled regardless of whether the reported numbers include antibody tests.

Offline michigancat

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Most of the public only cares about how widespread infection is, in which case I don’t see a downside to combining.

PCR = how widespread infection is currently (active infections, people that can spread the disease)
Antibody = how widespread infection may have been over time (people that have been infected at some point, they can't necessarily spread it if positive)

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/15/834497497/antibody-tests-for-coronavirus-can-miss-the-mark
PCR tests reported on a daily basis are wildly unreliable, though. That’s why they use rolling 7 day averages as a best approximation.

Which is to say if you’re relying on the test numbers to give you an up to date estimate of the number of infected, you’re going to be misled regardless of whether the reported numbers include antibody tests.

yeah pretty much every graph I share is a 7 day rolling average of PCR results. It's really useful for understanding trends and is a far better approximation of how the virus is spreading when antibodies aren't included.

Offline michigancat

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This is going to be interesting as the big tech companies let a lot of the workforce operate remotely full time

https://twitter.com/karissabe/status/1263529435900243968

https://twitter.com/GerritD/status/1263549376707919873

Offline Trim

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Yeah, I think I need to pull the trigger on it within a week to be safe. I saw some options that would be plenty roomy on RV versions of Airbnb sites. Most are very mod’d sprinter vans.

Border-crossing ferries to Canada are holding out hope they'll be able to operate right at the beginning of July, and they might, but I'm skeptical it'd be fun.  Might have to quarantine for 2 weeks once there or if not, there may not be much open anyway.

Seaside, OR and similar beach and hotels are open or will be in plenty of time.  They must be expecting no shortage of attendees, as rooms are still crazy expensive for that weekend.  Very well may be a cesspool of both coronovirus and merica'rs.

Seattle-area patriotic explosive bullshit is canceled, but that makes me think I'll have the worst-case scenario of thinking the coast is clear only for some eff to show he's a real american by banging firecrackers right as I'm out walking the dog.

Best bet still seems to be one of these Sprinter vans that I can luxuriously live in for a long weekend.  They have showers and everything.  I could still go to a beach but keep it moving to another one or into the woods if there's too much trash there.  They're about $300/night after all the fees.

Offline michigancat

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Yeah, I think I need to pull the trigger on it within a week to be safe. I saw some options that would be plenty roomy on RV versions of Airbnb sites. Most are very mod’d sprinter vans.

Border-crossing ferries to Canada are holding out hope they'll be able to operate right at the beginning of July, and they might, but I'm skeptical it'd be fun.  Might have to quarantine for 2 weeks once there or if not, there may not be much open anyway.

Seaside, OR and similar beach and hotels are open or will be in plenty of time.  They must be expecting no shortage of attendees, as rooms are still crazy expensive for that weekend.  Very well may be a cesspool of both coronovirus and merica'rs.

Seattle-area patriotic explosive bullshit is canceled, but that makes me think I'll have the worst-case scenario of thinking the coast is clear only for some eff to show he's a real american by banging firecrackers right as I'm out walking the dog.

Best bet still seems to be one of these Sprinter vans that I can luxuriously live in for a long weekend.  They have showers and everything.  I could still go to a beach but keep it moving to another one or into the woods if there's too much trash there.  They're about $300/night after all the fees.

dang that's pretty pricey. I worry about any campground being overrun with fireworks unless you maybe find some lonely BLM land

Offline DQ12

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We're shooting for <1700 today.

Why have you increased this number by 100 each of the last two days when the number has come in under your target goal each day?
Because of the weekly cycle.  In the last few weeks, numbers start falling beginning on Friday and continue to fall through monday, then numbers steadily increase until the following Friday.  That's kind of changed.  In April, the way it went was numbers begin falling on Wednesday and continue to fall until the following monday, and then the week's biggest spike on Tuesday.  I'm sure it's just reporting idiosyncracies, but that's why the 7 day average is really the thing to look at. 

We had 1908 last thursday, so ~1700 (or ~1600) today would be a pretty significant drop in the 7 day average.  1600 today would take us to 7 day average of 1260, down from 1304, which is the current mark.  1700 would still put us at 1274.  The 7 day average last thursday was 1464.  Two weeks ago it was 1812. 

You can see the weekly pattern play out on this sheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k_QmWvmQOEYNZM70fbnO82vAg4n903Mb3chyHV_SCPE/edit#gid=0
1513  :thumbs: :thumbs: :thumbs:

Rolling avg down to 1248.  Down almost 15% compared to a week ago.  Down 40% compared to a month ago.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline MakeItRain

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Yeah, I think I need to pull the trigger on it within a week to be safe. I saw some options that would be plenty roomy on RV versions of Airbnb sites. Most are very mod’d sprinter vans.

Border-crossing ferries to Canada are holding out hope they'll be able to operate right at the beginning of July, and they might, but I'm skeptical it'd be fun.  Might have to quarantine for 2 weeks once there or if not, there may not be much open anyway.

Seaside, OR and similar beach and hotels are open or will be in plenty of time.  They must be expecting no shortage of attendees, as rooms are still crazy expensive for that weekend.  Very well may be a cesspool of both coronovirus and merica'rs.

Seattle-area patriotic explosive bullshit is canceled, but that makes me think I'll have the worst-case scenario of thinking the coast is clear only for some eff to show he's a real american by banging firecrackers right as I'm out walking the dog.

Best bet still seems to be one of these Sprinter vans that I can luxuriously live in for a long weekend.  They have showers and everything.  I could still go to a beach but keep it moving to another one or into the woods if there's too much trash there.  They're about $300/night after all the fees.

Sprinter vans are dookie

Offline Trim

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Yeah, I think I need to pull the trigger on it within a week to be safe. I saw some options that would be plenty roomy on RV versions of Airbnb sites. Most are very mod’d sprinter vans.

Border-crossing ferries to Canada are holding out hope they'll be able to operate right at the beginning of July, and they might, but I'm skeptical it'd be fun.  Might have to quarantine for 2 weeks once there or if not, there may not be much open anyway.

Seaside, OR and similar beach and hotels are open or will be in plenty of time.  They must be expecting no shortage of attendees, as rooms are still crazy expensive for that weekend.  Very well may be a cesspool of both coronovirus and merica'rs.

Seattle-area patriotic explosive bullshit is canceled, but that makes me think I'll have the worst-case scenario of thinking the coast is clear only for some eff to show he's a real american by banging firecrackers right as I'm out walking the dog.

Best bet still seems to be one of these Sprinter vans that I can luxuriously live in for a long weekend.  They have showers and everything.  I could still go to a beach but keep it moving to another one or into the woods if there's too much trash there.  They're about $300/night after all the fees.

dang that's pretty pricey. I worry about any campground being overrun with fireworks unless you maybe find some lonely BLM land

Yep, my thought was no campgrounds, just look for a parking lot or pull over wherever. Maybe truck stops?

It’s expensive, but not unreasonable for finally being able to get out and about somewhat and still always being able to limit everything and everyone I’d be exposed to.

Offline Trim

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Sprinter vans are dookie

How so? Unless the roof leaks and it rains, it should serve this purpose.

Offline catastrophe

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This is going to be interesting as the big tech companies let a lot of the workforce operate remotely full time

https://twitter.com/karissabe/status/1263529435900243968

https://twitter.com/GerritD/status/1263549376707919873
Agree it will be interesting to watch, but totally justified as well.

Offline michigancat

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This is going to be interesting as the big tech companies let a lot of the workforce operate remotely full time

https://twitter.com/karissabe/status/1263529435900243968

https://twitter.com/GerritD/status/1263549376707919873
Agree it will be interesting to watch, but totally justified as well.

oh definitely. I mean I think the right play in that case is stay in the Bay, hope everyone else leaves, it gets cheaper to live in the bay, profit.

I don't think it'll happen that way though. I'd definitely want to know how much I'd get adjusted before I moved.

Online steve dave

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Damn NYC




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Offline sys

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PCR tests reported on a daily basis are wildly unreliable... you’re going to be misled regardless of whether the reported numbers include antibody tests.

other problems are either inherent to the data or due to fairly difficult to correct problems in how the data are collected and compiled.  in contrast, mixing the two is just taking two different data and intentionally degrading them for no reason (other than possibly to render less transparent a situation someone does not want public).

btw, i would this also (maybe) kinda fucks up the case count data.  i would assume they probably aren't adding in a positive antibody result as a new case, because it's an old, already resolved case.  but who the eff knows.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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i consider myself as contrarian as anyone, but i have to admit, catastrophe's "why is knowing things better than not knowing them" effort has me wobbling.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline 8manpick

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Damn NYC




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I'm a bit suspicious of using that compilation of different data sets/collection methodologies as a tool for compared between the cities. Also just graphically, why error bars on some and not others?
:adios:

Offline Spracne

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i consider myself as contrarian as anyone, but i have to admit, catastrophe's "why is knowing things better than not knowing them" effort has me wobbling.

What if I asked... Why is "knowing" things better than not knowing things?

Offline michigancat

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Damn NYC



https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1263571265014595587

damn.

also kinda crazy that Sweden isn't higher given their strategy. I'd like to see how Lombardy looks too.

Offline michigancat

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Damn NYC




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I'm a bit suspicious of using that compilation of different data sets/collection methodologies as a tool for compared between the cities. Also just graphically, why error bars on some and not others?

Gottlieb shared the source of everything in another tweet (as an image) :rolleyes:

I'm guessing they just didn't have the error ranges in the reports they cited.