Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1544197 times)

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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4375 on: April 16, 2020, 09:26:43 AM »
:lol: @LN You think I’m worried about me? People who live pay check to pay check, like waiters, bartenders, etc. are going through this right now. I tried to share my experience during this time and you decided to use it as a crutch to shame people who don’t vote your way. They haven’t updated their system in 40 years! What are they doing with their funds? Clown!

not trying to be a dick (have filled my quota for the time being)

and genuinely hope you receive your benefits soon

But I am curious as to what parts of the "system" haven't been updated in 40 years.

Like is everyone smoking cigs and cranking away on Commodore 64's?
You’re good, bud and I don’t believe you’re a wannabe dick to Most moderates about first time users (the system), but @TBT can you describe IT platforms for us, like the state of Kansas that maybe hasn’t updated theirs in 40 years and why it might be news worthy in IT during this time?

You'd be amazed at the amount of critical infrastructure is running of 40+ year old stuff.  It works.  If you keep it maintained this isn't as big of a deal as it sounds.  I have no insight into what the DOL at KS has running or how they have maintained it though.  Unemployment handling definitely isn't getting top billing in the budget game I'm sure to get migrated over.  Budget cuts matter.
You’re trying to make this into a budget issue as a state paid employee. This is a once in a lifetime issue/crisis we’re going through right now and you’re trying to slap the right on the wrist for being cognitive of how we spend our tax dollars. That’s fine if you want to use this time to flex about how we spend our state dollars, but you work in the state of Missouri and aren’t an IT guy from all accounts that I’ve read. I think we can all agree that before we’re enhancing state funded employees salaries every year with our budgets, maybe let’s make sure our crap works first. This is like blaming trump for the virus for being unprepared, but also acting like “having a 40 year old plan/system is ok, as long as I’m getting mine, but yeah, we need more tax dollars to throw at this. This is why.!”- State employee Phil

a) it's kind of weird how you try and dox people and build up what everybody is based on posts.  It's wildly incorrect
b) I'm only saying if we don't provide money to upgrade these things, this is what happens.  Nobody is saying spend google money to build an unemployment system that hums at an event like this but it doesn't take an event this bad to even show cracks in how fragile these systems get when they are ignored for 40 years (is what you are claiming which I assume is correct).  My whole post was telling you a properly maintained system can easily run fine in this event even if it's "40 years old".  This has nothing to do with right/left, both sides have sliced these budgets down to nothingness.  It's not even just a money thing, it's the priorities of what we tell people to do. I would bet anything it's been brought up 1000 times to the leaders that "hey, that unemployment system is busted down, we should probably upgrade that at some point" and it's been immediately shot down.  "works good enough, we have some new fun toy to launch."
I’m not trying to dox you, but I feel it’s important where the message is coming from. Now go post about your next Europe trip in the travel thread and suggest we all sit on the sidelines for a bit again while collecting a paycheck. Get how that comes off to some people you try to lecture on here now? I’m sure your heart is in the right place most of the time, but I think you’re lying to yourself that you’re not thinking about yourselves situation most of the time.

I'm not following the connection between me posting about trips and telling people to sit on the sidelines and collect a paycheck???    What I posted above about old systems and budgets has nothing to do with my own situation. It is frustrating to see people like yourself dealing with failing government processes and knowing there was a way for that not to be happening with just some basic preventative maintenance.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4376 on: April 16, 2020, 09:27:41 AM »
Also, the number of completely asymptomatic cases is pretty small I believe. Most people develop some symptoms

that's what the Johnson County random testing found.

Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4377 on: April 16, 2020, 09:29:23 AM »


I'm having a bit of a difficult time connecting how testing capacity is linked to the current measures, given the existence of asymptomatic/latent carriers. Unless everyone is getting tested regularly, we don't really know whether it's safe for us to be within 6 feet of one another.

Even if "anyone who wants to get tested can get tested" would we be doing anything different rn?

I'm in the same boat.  I don't think we would be doing anything different with increased testing.  I also think that the virus is probably going to be around for the rest of our lives and we are going to have to learn to live with it.  The entire country isn't going to be able to stay home forever.  I also believe that once a vaccine is developed, it's effectiveness will be somewhere on the order of the flu vaccine.   *I'm not an anti-vaxxer*

Testing wouldn't change the state we're in now, it would change when and how we open things back up.

Offline XocolateThundarr

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4378 on: April 16, 2020, 09:33:23 AM »


I'm having a bit of a difficult time connecting how testing capacity is linked to the current measures, given the existence of asymptomatic/latent carriers. Unless everyone is getting tested regularly, we don't really know whether it's safe for us to be within 6 feet of one another.

Even if "anyone who wants to get tested can get tested" would we be doing anything different rn?

I'm in the same boat.  I don't think we would be doing anything different with increased testing.  I also think that the virus is probably going to be around for the rest of our lives and we are going to have to learn to live with it.  The entire country isn't going to be able to stay home forever.  I also believe that once a vaccine is developed, it's effectiveness will be somewhere on the order of the flu vaccine.   *I'm not an anti-vaxxer*

Testing wouldn't change the state we're in now, it would change when and how we open things back up.

What do you think the threshold for cases will be to open things back up if what I opined above is true?  Not saying that will be the case, but I have my doubts that this bug will be eradicated from the population entirely.
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Offline DQ12

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4379 on: April 16, 2020, 09:40:47 AM »
I'm having a bit of a difficult time connecting how testing capacity is linked to the current measures, given the existence of asymptomatic/latent carriers. Unless everyone is getting tested regularly, we don't really know whether it's safe for us to be within 6 feet of one another.

Even if "anyone who wants to get tested can get tested" would we be doing anything different rn?

Right now if someone has mild symptoms and is a low risk patient, they probably won't be tested - they'll be told to go home and self-isolate. With adequate testing, people with mild symptoms could be tested and confirmed positive or negative. In theory, with adequate testing combined with some sort of contract tracing method, you could notify people who were in close contact with that mildly symptomatic person when they likely had the virus but were asymptomatic, and have them self-isolate for a period of time. I suppose you could do that now but most people are self isolating anyway.
But even with robust testing/contact tracing that's completely effective, it doesn't stop the spread of the virus, it just slows it down, right?  Even ignoring asymptomats, there will still be a latency period where people are unknowingly infecting others -- is that correct?  Testing/Contract Tracing really just aims to shorten (not eliminate) that period where people could unknowingly infect others.  I get that there's benefit in slowing the spread, but no matter how robust/effective testing and contract tracing is, there's always going to be that risk.

Mind you, I recognize you have a better handle on this than I do, so I'm really just trying to figure out how all of these different steps will eventually get us to a return to normalcy.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2020, 09:44:34 AM by DQ12 »


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Offline Trim

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4380 on: April 16, 2020, 09:48:31 AM »
Think about WHY this site was created in the first place...  Insiders or as we called them “people ITK” were able to get inside info about K-State football that the “real reporters” couldn’t get because the entire narrative was controlled within Vanier Sports Complex.

While we all enjoyed knowing facts about our favorite team, those that enjoyed the public narrative hung out at GPC and called us all sorts of names because we didn’t toe the line.  Remember?   Well, guess what? The EXACT SAME THING is happening  now, only on a much larger scale.   

I don't recall this being the reason why this site was created in the first place.

Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4381 on: April 16, 2020, 09:49:53 AM »
I'm having a bit of a difficult time connecting how testing capacity is linked to the current measures, given the existence of asymptomatic/latent carriers. Unless everyone is getting tested regularly, we don't really know whether it's safe for us to be within 6 feet of one another.

Even if "anyone who wants to get tested can get tested" would we be doing anything different rn?

Right now if someone has mild symptoms and is a low risk patient, they probably won't be tested - they'll be told to go home and self-isolate. With adequate testing, people with mild symptoms could be tested and confirmed positive or negative. In theory, with adequate testing combined with some sort of contract tracing method, you could notify people who were in close contact with that mildly symptomatic person when they likely had the virus but were asymptomatic, and have them self-isolate for a period of time. I suppose you could do that now but most people are self isolating anyway.
But even with robust testing/contact tracing that's completely effective, it doesn't stop the spread of the virus, it just slows it down, right?  Even ignoring asymptomats, there's always going to be a latency period where people are unknowingly infecting others -- is that correct?  I get that there's benefit in slowing the spread, but no matter how robust/effective testing and contract tracing is, there's always going to be risk of contracting the virus and unknowingly becoming a spreader.

I mean obviously testing won't actually eradicate the virus. It's for a few things, and we can really only use it for the first two now:

1) Proper protection of health care workers dealing with confirmed cases
2) Ruling out patients with symptoms but no covid (allowing for more effective PPE resource use)
3) Create a framework for contact tracing moving forward (this is probably most key for near term reopening)
4) Random testing of the population to better understand asymptomatic spread in the long term

I know there's lots of other uses but those are probably most relevant now

Offline CHONGS

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Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4383 on: April 16, 2020, 10:01:12 AM »


I'm having a bit of a difficult time connecting how testing capacity is linked to the current measures, given the existence of asymptomatic/latent carriers. Unless everyone is getting tested regularly, we don't really know whether it's safe for us to be within 6 feet of one another.

Even if "anyone who wants to get tested can get tested" would we be doing anything different rn?

I'm in the same boat.  I don't think we would be doing anything different with increased testing.  I also think that the virus is probably going to be around for the rest of our lives and we are going to have to learn to live with it.  The entire country isn't going to be able to stay home forever.  I also believe that once a vaccine is developed, it's effectiveness will be somewhere on the order of the flu vaccine.   *I'm not an anti-vaxxer*

Testing wouldn't change the state we're in now, it would change when and how we open things back up.

What do you think the threshold for cases will be to open things back up if what I opined above is true?  Not saying that will be the case, but I have my doubts that this bug will be eradicated from the population entirely.

I don't think the decision on when and how to reopen is as simple as a "threshold for cases".

I keep going back to this, but the California list of criteria for reopening decision making is pretty well done compared to most out there.

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1250144561986297857


Quote
1) Ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed

2) Ability to prevent infection in people who are at high risk

3) Ability of hospitals and health systems to handle surges

4) Ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand

5) Ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing

6) Ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.

So like in the case of your kid going to college, KSU would need to have specific protocol for dorms, greek houses, dining halls, assemblies, the rec, testing, etc. before they reopen. You would need to consider whether Manhattan and other NEKS hospitals could handle a surge if there was a spike in cases when students returned. You'd need to consider how to keep the virus from ripping through Meadowlark Hills. You'd need a plan for shutting down/reducing contact if there's a spike. All those should (and likely will) be evaluated when determining when and how things will reopen.

Offline sys

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4384 on: April 16, 2020, 10:02:15 AM »
if you look at what countries that have controlled this are doing.  they identify cases as rapidly as possible.  that involves fast testing.  when a case is identified that person is quarantined (or hospitalized, as necessary).  everyone that person has contacted is traced and tested/quarantined/retested.  notifications are put out so that anyone that thinks they were near that person can come in for testing.  the key at every step is to move fast, to get people isolated before they have an opportunity to infect anyone else.

a lot of these countries don't have a huge capacity for testing.  the capacity for testing needed is related to the population of infected as much or more so than it is the country's population.  unfortunately we have a very large population of infected people.

related to that.  to come out of the lockdown, we need to have r = 1.0 or less.  however it's important to realize that implies continued transmission of an appreciable fraction of the current number of infected people.  in many parts of the country, that's fine - there isn't currently a large population of infected people.  however in somewhere like ny/nj, there are millions of infected.  a lockdown will have to be kept in place much longer, to reduce the infected population, than it will in places where the virus never spread widely.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4385 on: April 16, 2020, 10:16:23 AM »
Captain Obvious point of the day, the virus is going to continue mutating, so we're likely never going to get to a vaccine that's 100%. 

So as I said earlier, therapeutics to mitigate systems should and hopefully are getting more funding and research than the vaccine.    Capable mitigation enables faster reopening.   

The digital ID cards have more draconian implications by the hour.   But probably unavoidable. 


Offline sys

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4386 on: April 16, 2020, 10:31:32 AM »
I also believe that once a vaccine is developed, it's effectiveness will be somewhere on the order of the flu vaccine.   *I'm not an anti-vaxxer*

this is an important point.  i think a lot of people, myself included, have looked at a vaccine as a panacea where we instantly go back to pre cov2 life.  and while that's one possibility, it's probably more likely that the best vaccine developed confers partial or temporary immunity or that it is not effective in all people.  so we continue to live with the virus in some, hopefully much less serious, fashion.


one possible side benefit - i've seen some stuff that indicates that antibodies for other human coronaviruses have some ability to combat cov2 and vice-versa.  so the vaccine we develop for cov2 may take out several of the viruses that cause colds as well.

"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4387 on: April 16, 2020, 10:55:56 AM »
I also believe that once a vaccine is developed, it's effectiveness will be somewhere on the order of the flu vaccine.   *I'm not an anti-vaxxer*

this is an important point.  i think a lot of people, myself included, have looked at a vaccine as a panacea where we instantly go back to pre cov2 life.  and while that's one possibility, it's probably more likely that the best vaccine developed confers partial or temporary immunity or that it is not effective in all people.  so we continue to live with the virus in some, hopefully much less serious, fashion.


one possible side benefit - i've seen some stuff that indicates that antibodies for other human coronaviruses have some ability to combat cov2 and vice-versa.  so the vaccine we develop for cov2 may take out several of the viruses that cause colds as well.

Any reason why this is the assumption while other viruses we've come across in human history did not follow this timeline?

Offline kstate4life

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4388 on: April 16, 2020, 10:56:41 AM »
:lol: @LN You think I’m worried about me? People who live pay check to pay check, like waiters, bartenders, etc. are going through this right now. I tried to share my experience during this time and you decided to use it as a crutch to shame people who don’t vote your way. They haven’t updated their system in 40 years! What are they doing with their funds? Clown!

not trying to be a dick (have filled my quota for the time being)

and genuinely hope you receive your benefits soon

But I am curious as to what parts of the "system" haven't been updated in 40 years.

Like is everyone smoking cigs and cranking away on Commodore 64's?
You’re good, bud and I don’t believe you’re a wannabe dick to Most moderates about first time users (the system), but @TBT can you describe IT platforms for us, like the state of Kansas that maybe hasn’t updated theirs in 40 years and why it might be news worthy in IT during this time?

Well, I haven’t worked for the state of KS for over a year. That being said I can state some vague stuff about how we changed. From experience I supported some pretty old crap, I’m talking in the ~15 year old stuff tho.

I did migrate our stuff to new hardware. I singlehandly migrated, converted, wrote scripts, and oversaw the deployment. It was all successful, and a year removed no issues.

We were lucky we had a team lead that understood tech,  was a previous programmer, and saw the benefit to upgrade crap, tho. Other departments have had to deal with other issues.

FWIW... CO is having a lot of the same issues with their unemployment system.  It was built on a program language called COBOL (super old) on mainframe computers, and there was only 1 person in the state that has experience with it to help with the issues they are having.  This is all according to 9news.  There are still a lot of government systems that run on this, and I am guessing that KS has something similar.  So unfortunately, it's not surprising that they are seeing these issues without being able to resolve them in a timely manner.  Also, I am an IT guy.

Offline XocolateThundarr

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4389 on: April 16, 2020, 11:17:26 AM »
I also believe that once a vaccine is developed, it's effectiveness will be somewhere on the order of the flu vaccine.   *I'm not an anti-vaxxer*

this is an important point.  i think a lot of people, myself included, have looked at a vaccine as a panacea where we instantly go back to pre cov2 life.  and while that's one possibility, it's probably more likely that the best vaccine developed confers partial or temporary immunity or that it is not effective in all people.  so we continue to live with the virus in some, hopefully much less serious, fashion.


one possible side benefit - i've seen some stuff that indicates that antibodies for other human coronaviruses have some ability to combat cov2 and vice-versa.  so the vaccine we develop for cov2 may take out several of the viruses that cause colds as well.

Any reason why this is the assumption while other viruses we've come across in human history did not follow this timeline?

Mainly because I don't think anyone knows enough about the damn thing yet.  My dad had polio when he was very young and thankfully they developed a vaccine to all but eradicate it.  I hope that they can do that for this as well.  My hunch is that this thing is more like a cold and flu virus which I think makes the vaccine component of the equation quite a bit different. 
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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4390 on: April 16, 2020, 11:21:36 AM »
I also believe that once a vaccine is developed, it's effectiveness will be somewhere on the order of the flu vaccine.   *I'm not an anti-vaxxer*

this is an important point.  i think a lot of people, myself included, have looked at a vaccine as a panacea where we instantly go back to pre cov2 life.  and while that's one possibility, it's probably more likely that the best vaccine developed confers partial or temporary immunity or that it is not effective in all people.  so we continue to live with the virus in some, hopefully much less serious, fashion.


one possible side benefit - i've seen some stuff that indicates that antibodies for other human coronaviruses have some ability to combat cov2 and vice-versa.  so the vaccine we develop for cov2 may take out several of the viruses that cause colds as well.
Yeah, post vaccine I think it’s entirely reasonable to expect we’d live with the virus similar to how we live with the flu. So still plenty of deaths but no dire need for social distancing conventions.

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4392 on: April 16, 2020, 11:37:57 AM »
:lol: @LN You think I’m worried about me? People who live pay check to pay check, like waiters, bartenders, etc. are going through this right now. I tried to share my experience during this time and you decided to use it as a crutch to shame people who don’t vote your way. They haven’t updated their system in 40 years! What are they doing with their funds? Clown!

not trying to be a dick (have filled my quota for the time being)

and genuinely hope you receive your benefits soon

But I am curious as to what parts of the "system" haven't been updated in 40 years.

Like is everyone smoking cigs and cranking away on Commodore 64's?
You’re good, bud and I don’t believe you’re a wannabe dick to Most moderates about first time users (the system), but @TBT can you describe IT platforms for us, like the state of Kansas that maybe hasn’t updated theirs in 40 years and why it might be news worthy in IT during this time?

You'd be amazed at the amount of critical infrastructure is running of 40+ year old stuff.  It works.  If you keep it maintained this isn't as big of a deal as it sounds.  I have no insight into what the DOL at KS has running or how they have maintained it though.  Unemployment handling definitely isn't getting top billing in the budget game I'm sure to get migrated over.  Budget cuts matter.

I was a contractor for BNSF for a couple years and they used AS400 (Introduced 1988) to track every single train/railcar in their network. They had some web based programs and other software that was fancier but it all tied back to the AS400.




Offline sys

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4393 on: April 16, 2020, 11:40:41 AM »
Any reason why this is the assumption while other viruses we've come across in human history did not follow this timeline?

it isn't clear to me which assumption you are challenging. 
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4394 on: April 16, 2020, 11:48:10 AM »
Any reason why this is the assumption while other viruses we've come across in human history did not follow this timeline?

it isn't clear to me which assumption you are challenging.

Both of these:
"the best vaccine developed confers partial or temporary immunity or that it is not effective in all people.

we continue to live with the virus "

With less technology and knowledge humans have been able to pump out vaccines that were effective to not live with older viruses.  Hell many went basically away just by containing the initial wave.  I don't know why this one is just something you are thinking we'll just need to live with forever?

Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4395 on: April 16, 2020, 11:51:32 AM »
the flu is a virus (or viruses) that we will probably live with forever. But it's at a stable state because of vaccines and hospital capacities built around it being around forever. same thing can happen with covid

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4396 on: April 16, 2020, 12:02:04 PM »
Both of these:
"the best vaccine developed confers partial or temporary immunity or that it is not effective in all people.

we continue to live with the virus "

With less technology and knowledge humans have been able to pump out vaccines that were effective to not live with older viruses.  Hell many went basically away just by containing the initial wave.  I don't know why this one is just something you are thinking we'll just need to live with forever?

so, obviously i'm just trying to assign very rough probabilities to different outcomes and one of those outcomes is still very much that we produce a very effective vaccine that drives cov2 to extinction or nearly so.

however, i think the probability that we end up with a less effective vaccine is higher, based on:

1.  afaik, we've never developed a vaccine for any coronavirus
2.  natural immunities to coronaviruses seem to be temporary
3.  flu vaccines are temporary, only partially effective and don't work in all people

"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4397 on: April 16, 2020, 12:06:55 PM »
Hell many went basically away just by containing the initial wave.

just to add on in response to this - i've already mentioned this, but i posted a video of a korean epidemiologist a few days back where he kind of offhandedly mentioned that he thought there was a 10% chance the virus goes extinct this summer.  which kind of shocked me as it was not really a possibility that i was including in my view of the near future.

so, just, like, the range of possible outcomes is very wide.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4398 on: April 16, 2020, 12:11:51 PM »

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #4399 on: April 16, 2020, 12:14:23 PM »