CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[Phil Titola]

If only trump had been in office for 3 years to rectify the prior administration's shortfalls.

3 years to correct decades of problems.   Many of them created by the same people that Useful Idiots like you think are awesome.   

Even Fauci admitted that all the red tape and bureaucracy people like him piled on got people killed during the HIV crisis.

But you guys think Fauci is awesome.

Like one epidemiologist said about himself, he's not in government, therefore he can conduct real science.

Fauci is good at one thing at this point in my mind, standing up to Trump's gaslighting false comments to the public.  His preparedness for this situation after decades in the same role seems pretty horrible.

Yet all reports at that Trump has listened to everything the guy has said, any thought of firing the guy has lead to a full blown Useful Idiot (people like you) meltdown.

I don't think firing the dude in the middle of this would be the right move but since you voted for a person who said "you're fired" a lot and that got you all excited for him to be your president, I'm sure you are super erect thinking about that possible firing.

Should Fauci step down after this has calmed down?  Be fine with me.  He failed at this in my mind just as bad as Trump has.

[mocat]

In South Korea, cases of those who tested negative after having Covid-19, that are now testing positive again are on the rise.


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/200413110301074.html

this sucks. are any other countries reporting this also? i have only seen reports like this from SK

[Rage Against the McKee]

The Worldometers data aggregation everybody seems to be using is much more up to date, but possibly not super-reliable given the number of sources they are pulling from, different counting methodologies, etc. I think everyone, including the Worldometer analysts, would concede there are likely issues with the data.

By contrast, the CDC keeps a running tally based only on only confirmed death certificates. It's not nearly as up to date, and even going off of verified death certificates is far from certain, but at least the CDC makes its data publicly available. You can download the CSV here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

I was curious about deaths by age in the US. Based upon the CDC's most recent data (only about 5k deaths, so way behind), deaths caused by COVID by age are:
- Under 55: 9.5%
- 55-64: 12.5%
- 65+: 78%

That doesn't seem surprising.

But then I then compared the COVID deaths for each of those age groupings against all deaths of any cause for each of those age groupings (this is all in the same CSV). Here's how that breaks down....
- Under 55: 474 / 32,197 = 0.81%
- 55-64: 624 / 64,579 = 0.97%
- 65+: 3,886 / 387,996 = 1.00%

So no matter what your age (at least based upon these 3 age groupings), about 1% of all deaths is being caused by COVID, even though COIVD has a massively higher mortality rate as you get older.

Would be interested to hear Sys's take and that of other number crunchers. Should this be expected? Just an anomaly? I found it surprising.

This is interesting. I would have expected the number for those under 55 to be higher than for those over 65. We do have a lot of very unhealthy young-ish people in this country, though.

[sonofdaxjones]

If only trump had been in office for 3 years to rectify the prior administration's shortfalls.

3 years to correct decades of problems.   Many of them created by the same people that Useful Idiots like you think are awesome.   

Even Fauci admitted that all the red tape and bureaucracy people like him piled on got people killed during the HIV crisis.

But you guys think Fauci is awesome.

Like one epidemiologist said about himself, he's not in government, therefore he can conduct real science.

Fauci is good at one thing at this point in my mind, standing up to Trump's gaslighting false comments to the public.  His preparedness for this situation after decades in the same role seems pretty horrible.

Yet all reports at that Trump has listened to everything the guy has said, any thought of firing the guy has lead to a full blown Useful Idiot (people like you) meltdown.

I don't think firing the dude in the middle of this would be the right move but since you voted for a person who said "you're fired" a lot and that got you all excited for him to be your president, I'm sure you are super erect thinking about that possible firing.

Should Fauci step down after this has calmed down, be fine with me?  He failed at this in my mind just as bad as Trump has.

Well that's an interesting take from someone who believes everything FearPornTV tells him to think.   Will have to take that up for consideration.

[michigancat]

re: worldometers from the guy who releases the FT daily graphs:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249445405865148422

[sonofdaxjones]

In South Korea, cases of those who tested negative after having Covid-19, that are now testing positive again are on the rise.


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/200413110301074.html

this sucks. are any other countries reporting this also? i have only seen reports like this from SK

I don't know, and I wouldn't trust Taiwan's numbers because anyone who doesn't think they'll try and play the "better and more truthful" China card is an idiot. 

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

The Worldometers data aggregation everybody seems to be using is much more up to date, but possibly not super-reliable given the number of sources they are pulling from, different counting methodologies, etc. I think everyone, including the Worldometer analysts, would concede there are likely issues with the data.

By contrast, the CDC keeps a running tally based only on only confirmed death certificates. It's not nearly as up to date, and even going off of verified death certificates is far from certain, but at least the CDC makes its data publicly available. You can download the CSV here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

I was curious about deaths by age in the US. Based upon the CDC's most recent data (only about 5k deaths, so way behind), deaths caused by COVID by age are:
- Under 55: 9.5%
- 55-64: 12.5%
- 65+: 78%

That doesn't seem surprising.

But then I then compared the COVID deaths for each of those age groupings against all deaths of any cause for each of those age groupings (this is all in the same CSV). Here's how that breaks down....
- Under 55: 474 / 32,197 = 0.81%
- 55-64: 624 / 64,579 = 0.97%
- 65+: 3,886 / 387,996 = 1.00%

So no matter what your age (at least based upon these 3 age groupings), about 1% of all deaths is being caused by COVID, even though COIVD has a massively higher mortality rate as you get older.

Would be interested to hear Sys's take and that of other number crunchers. Should this be expected? Just an anomaly? I found it surprising.

This is interesting. I would have expected the number for those under 55 to be higher than for those over 65. We do have a lot of very unhealthy young-ish people in this country, though.

I don’t think it has to do with health. Younger people have a lot of deaths from other causes - occupational, crime, addiction, suicide, etc. - that older people don’t. Older people are much more likely to die of disease than any of the forgoing. Which again is why these numbers are so strange to me. I can’t understand a good reason for why these percentages are so similar across age groups when we know these age groups face vastly different risks and vastly different covid mortality rates. It seems like either a weird coincidence or something that might call the data into question (but I can’t say how). It’s just weird.

[LickNeckey]

 

Jesus Christ dax...

Speaking of useful idiots for the TechnoOligarchs.

I think that calling Jesus a useful idiot this close to Easter is a little harsh...

[Kat Kid]

In South Korea, cases of those who tested negative after having Covid-19, that are now testing positive again are on the rise.


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/200413110301074.html

this sucks. are any other countries reporting this also? i have only seen reports like this from SK

I am hoping that this just means the virus sheds for a very long time and it isn't an actual re-infection.

[sys]

i think they almost certainly are cases of false negatives/low virus counts that then followed up with positive tests.  the idea that numerous people got two separate infections in a country where there are about 200 cases/million people is almost fantastical.

[sys]

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1249700969648140288

[sonofdaxjones]

But if we just had better relations with the Chinese Communist Party maybe they would just change who they've always been and always will be . . . . (Useful Idiot Nation) 
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/powerful-americans-were-catastrophically-wrong-about-china/

[Phil Titola]

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1249700969648140288

What is the definition of this crisis existing ? We will still have the virus around in 6 months for sure but I don't think that's what is bring answered here.

[Rage Against the McKee]

If I were answering the question, I would treat it as "how long can your business survive without being open to the public?"

[sonofdaxjones]

There is nothing the least bit profound about that poll.

It's literally straight out of pretty much any business 101.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I thought it was interesting how more construction companies thought they would still be running after 6 months than thought they would be running after 4.

[waks]

i think they almost certainly are cases of false negatives/low virus counts that then followed up with positive tests.  the idea that numerous people got two separate infections in a country where there are about 200 cases/million people is almost fantastical.

Probably just people that forgot to replace their toothbrushes.

[Spracne]

I thought it was interesting how more construction companies thought they would still be running after 6 months than thought they would be running after 4.

Good point. Lol.

[michigancat]

i think they almost certainly are cases of false negatives/low virus counts that then followed up with positive tests.  the idea that numerous people got two separate infections in a country where there are about 200 cases/million people is almost fantastical.

anecdote time from my wife's hospital:

They've finally got the typical test turnaround time down to six hours. But they've had a ton of false negatives! So if they get a negative on someone they're pretty sure has it they'll do what I think is a "tracheal aspirate" test instead of the mucus from the nose. I don't know all the details but those results seem to be more accurate and take five days.

[Phil Titola]

Seems like a good way to get contact tracing up and running quickly
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/04/apple-and-google-detail-bold-and-ambitious-plan-to-track-covid-19-at-scale/

[steve dave]

it's a morons murderer's row

https://twitter.com/HelenKennedy/status/1249767683802923016

[star seed 7]

Confidence rising

[michigancat]

Seems like a good way to get contact tracing up and running quickly
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/04/apple-and-google-detail-bold-and-ambitious-plan-to-track-covid-19-at-scale/

this is going to be abused by the government for non-disease stuff

[catastrophe]

it's a morons murderer's row

https://twitter.com/HelenKennedy/status/1249767683802923016

Fortunately even morons are able to scale back all the shutdown measures put in place by Trump.

[sonofdaxjones]

If there's one thing that committee needs is more Dems, people who showed their true sense of urgency by making sure several billion dollars of unnecessary pork was inserted into the virus stimulus and who are now stopping additional support for small business because they want to insert more unrelated provisions.    The Dem aka Useful Idiot's are so concerned that Slurs Pelosi sent the house home until May.