CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[ChiComCat]

Virginia goes until June 10th

Virginia really is for the lovers

[star seed 7]

I disagree, extending it every week or two is stupid. Set a long date and lift it early if needed. crap loads of people are still thinking this thing is going to be all over in a week or two.

[ChiComCat]

I agree to a point.  I work in hospitality and extending longer than pulling it back will have significant consequences in my industry.  Agree the week to week crap isn't helpful either, but I think they can be effective in taking it through April and updating mid-April for May. 

[Phil Titola]

I agree to a point.  I work in hospitality and extending longer than pulling it back will have significant consequences in my industry.  Agree the week to week crap isn't helpful either, but I think they can be effective in taking it through April and updating mid-April for May.

Agree.  Week to week is dumb.  Extending 70+ days right now can impact industry now that may not end up occurring and no way simply lifting it early helps those industries.

 

[Rage Against the McKee]

I can't help but think that some sort of coherent strategy coming from the federal government would be a whole lot better for industry than this state by state strategy ranging from doing absolutely nothing to shutting down everything all the way into June. It's like it almost matters who the president is.

[steve dave]

What are we feeling like the Disney World timeline is for 2020? June at the earliest probably?


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[Phil Titola]

What are we feeling like the Disney World timeline is for 2020? June at the earliest probably?


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better start making some mickey masks.

[Brock Landers]

I wouldn't set foot in Florida for about 6 months but that's just me.

[cfbandyman]

I can't help but think that some sort of coherent strategy coming from the federal government would be a whole lot better for industry than this state by state strategy ranging from doing absolutely nothing to shutting down everything all the way into June. It's like it almost matters who the president is.

It is a pretty appropriate comeuppance for deciding a game show host with many failed businesses and a gigantic narcissistic ego was the best choice to run the country. Maybe more people realize that crisis management is just as important if not more than ideology.

[steve dave]

What about Kauai? July feeling pretty safe?


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[steve dave]

I wouldn't set foot in Florida for about 6 months but that's just me.

Yeah, we’ve punted on our May trip. October is up next.


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[MakeItRain]

https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/

Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus — this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 COVID-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘COVID deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by COVID-19. (Even the two-thirds figure is an estimate — it would not surprise me if the real proportion is higher.)

Let me finish with a couple of examples. Colleagues in Germany feel sure that their numbers are nearer the truth than most, because they had plenty of testing capacity ready when the pandemic struck. Currently the death rate is 0.8 percent in Germany. If we assume that about one-third of the recorded deaths are due to COVID-19 and that they have managed to test a third of all cases in the country who actually have the disease (a generous assumption), then the death rate for COVID-19 would be 0.08 percent. That might go up slightly, as a result of death lag. If we assume at present that this effect might be 25 percent (which seems generous), that would give an overall, and probably upper limit, of death rate of 0.1 percent, which is similar to seasonal flu.

Let’s look at the UK numbers. As of 9 a.m. on Saturday there were 1,019 deaths and 17,089 confirmed cases — a death rate of 6.0 percent. If one third of the deaths are caused by COVID-19 and the number of cases is underestimated by a factor of say 15, the death rate would be 0.13 percent and the number of deaths due to COVID-19 would be 340. This number should be placed in perspective with the number of deaths we would normally expect in the first 28 days of March — roughly 46,000.

John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist.

So sticking firm at your 10k projected death toll in USA?

In sys's poll, I chose 50-100k deaths.  That would be the number of deaths reported which is generally the number of people that died while infected with coronavirus.  That likely translates into 15,000-35,000 deaths due to coronavirus.

  shouldn't your last line say
"That likely translates into 0 deaths due to coronavirus, because we all would have died from something else, someday."

[cfbandyman]

https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/

Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus — this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 COVID-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘COVID deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by COVID-19. (Even the two-thirds figure is an estimate — it would not surprise me if the real proportion is higher.)

Let me finish with a couple of examples. Colleagues in Germany feel sure that their numbers are nearer the truth than most, because they had plenty of testing capacity ready when the pandemic struck. Currently the death rate is 0.8 percent in Germany. If we assume that about one-third of the recorded deaths are due to COVID-19 and that they have managed to test a third of all cases in the country who actually have the disease (a generous assumption), then the death rate for COVID-19 would be 0.08 percent. That might go up slightly, as a result of death lag. If we assume at present that this effect might be 25 percent (which seems generous), that would give an overall, and probably upper limit, of death rate of 0.1 percent, which is similar to seasonal flu.

Let’s look at the UK numbers. As of 9 a.m. on Saturday there were 1,019 deaths and 17,089 confirmed cases — a death rate of 6.0 percent. If one third of the deaths are caused by COVID-19 and the number of cases is underestimated by a factor of say 15, the death rate would be 0.13 percent and the number of deaths due to COVID-19 would be 340. This number should be placed in perspective with the number of deaths we would normally expect in the first 28 days of March — roughly 46,000.

John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist.

So sticking firm at your 10k projected death toll in USA?

In sys's poll, I chose 50-100k deaths.  That would be the number of deaths reported which is generally the number of people that died while infected with coronavirus.  That likely translates into 15,000-35,000 deaths due to coronavirus.

  shouldn't your last line say
"That likely translates into 0 deaths due to coronavirus, because we all would have died from something else, someday."

Lol it's true, it's been a grifter's paradise since trump's become prez and justwin is another in a long line of em

[Spracne]

I will say, this crisis has made me more aware of Joe Diffie

lol. Same. I went from not knowing the name to knowing he had a 10 inch dong.

[Phil Titola]

I will say, this crisis has made me more aware of Joe Diffie

lol. Same. I went from not knowing the name to knowing he had a 10 inch dong.

Gonna have to snopes this. Probably just had a bot setup to trigger once his death was announced.

[Spracne]

I will say, this crisis has made me more aware of Joe Diffie

lol. Same. I went from not knowing the name to knowing he had a 10 inch dong.

Gonna have to snopes this. Probably just had a bot setup to trigger once his death was announced.

See the 'Rona Good News thread.

[Phil Titola]

I will say, this crisis has made me more aware of Joe Diffie

lol. Same. I went from not knowing the name to knowing he had a 10 inch dong.

Gonna have to snopes this. Probably just had a bot setup to trigger once his death was announced.

See the 'Rona Good News thread.

Yup. The tweet was the bot Joe setup to fire off that great rumor once his death was announced. Joe Diffie Twitter genius

[michigancat]

I will say, this crisis has made me more aware of Joe Diffie

lol. Same. I went from not knowing the name to knowing he had a 10 inch dong.

Gonna have to snopes this. Probably just had a bot setup to trigger once his death was announced.

See the 'Rona Good News thread.

hate to be #thatguy but that was a bit

[Dugout DickStone]

 Well screw him.  He’s taken all of the credibility from me when I die and the flocks of ladies I’ve romanced start tweeting about my girth

[steve dave]

I will say, this crisis has made me more aware of Joe Diffie

lol. Same. I went from not knowing the name to knowing he had a 10 inch dong.

Gonna have to snopes this. Probably just had a bot setup to trigger once his death was announced.

See the 'Rona Good News thread.

hate to be #thatguy but that was a bit

rusty, at what age did you take a giant crap on your childs belief in santa? Like 3 months old? jesus christ.

[michigancat]

it's a great bit!

[Spracne]

it's a great bit!

Yes. That's what I've heard.

[catastrophe]

[nicname]

Indeed.


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[star seed 7]

This is the crap highly intelligent pragmatists crave

https://twitter.com/Public_Citizen/status/1244748967205838850