CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[Justwin]

https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/

Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus — this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 COVID-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘COVID deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by COVID-19. (Even the two-thirds figure is an estimate — it would not surprise me if the real proportion is higher.)

Let me finish with a couple of examples. Colleagues in Germany feel sure that their numbers are nearer the truth than most, because they had plenty of testing capacity ready when the pandemic struck. Currently the death rate is 0.8 percent in Germany. If we assume that about one-third of the recorded deaths are due to COVID-19 and that they have managed to test a third of all cases in the country who actually have the disease (a generous assumption), then the death rate for COVID-19 would be 0.08 percent. That might go up slightly, as a result of death lag. If we assume at present that this effect might be 25 percent (which seems generous), that would give an overall, and probably upper limit, of death rate of 0.1 percent, which is similar to seasonal flu.

Let’s look at the UK numbers. As of 9 a.m. on Saturday there were 1,019 deaths and 17,089 confirmed cases — a death rate of 6.0 percent. If one third of the deaths are caused by COVID-19 and the number of cases is underestimated by a factor of say 15, the death rate would be 0.13 percent and the number of deaths due to COVID-19 would be 340. This number should be placed in perspective with the number of deaths we would normally expect in the first 28 days of March — roughly 46,000.

John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist.

[chum1]

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1244626115794055170

[Phil Titola]

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1244626115794055170

Moderate social distancing is over 70 stay locked away, 7 day isolation if have symptoms, 14 days quarantine for those family members of those with symptoms if I read that right?

What does "moderate" do to our spread vs. what most of Americans are doing right now?

[Phil Titola]

i'm becoming a bit of a convert to the idea that one of the cheapest, most impactful interventions we can do to reduce transmission is for everyone to wear masks for a while.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1244460977615253504

Is your coming around due to the mask can stop the spread from asymptomatic people?  It's not to protect those who do not have the virus from getting it right?

How does this work in other countries?  I wear a mask as soon as I step outside?  What about restaurants?  Working out?

[michigancat]

https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1244589387712790528


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this thread on that ship is something, they are coming from CHILE

https://twitter.com/FrancesRobles/status/1244617016511774723

[ChiComCat]

https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1244589387712790528


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this thread on that ship is something, they are coming from CHILE

https://twitter.com/FrancesRobles/status/1244617016511774723

How the hell are there still people on cruise ships at this point?

[michigancat]

https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1244589387712790528


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this thread on that ship is something, they are coming from CHILE

https://twitter.com/FrancesRobles/status/1244617016511774723

How the hell are there still people on cruise ships at this point?

If you read that thread they were on like a month long cruise and no one would let them off

[DaBigTrain]

[michigancat]

https://twitter.com/lauraolin/status/1244640216482295808

[DaBigTrain]

https://twitter.com/lauraolin/status/1244640216482295808

It’s all a hoax Rusty!

[catastrophe]

https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/

Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus — this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 COVID-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘COVID deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by COVID-19. (Even the two-thirds figure is an estimate — it would not surprise me if the real proportion is higher.)

Let me finish with a couple of examples. Colleagues in Germany feel sure that their numbers are nearer the truth than most, because they had plenty of testing capacity ready when the pandemic struck. Currently the death rate is 0.8 percent in Germany. If we assume that about one-third of the recorded deaths are due to COVID-19 and that they have managed to test a third of all cases in the country who actually have the disease (a generous assumption), then the death rate for COVID-19 would be 0.08 percent. That might go up slightly, as a result of death lag. If we assume at present that this effect might be 25 percent (which seems generous), that would give an overall, and probably upper limit, of death rate of 0.1 percent, which is similar to seasonal flu.

Let’s look at the UK numbers. As of 9 a.m. on Saturday there were 1,019 deaths and 17,089 confirmed cases — a death rate of 6.0 percent. If one third of the deaths are caused by COVID-19 and the number of cases is underestimated by a factor of say 15, the death rate would be 0.13 percent and the number of deaths due to COVID-19 would be 340. This number should be placed in perspective with the number of deaths we would normally expect in the first 28 days of March — roughly 46,000.

John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist.

So sticking firm at your 10k projected death toll in USA?

[DaBigTrain]

I know it’s probably because of the weekend but our new cases are way down today so far. So that’s a positive thing.

[Justwin]

https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/

Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus — this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 COVID-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘COVID deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by COVID-19. (Even the two-thirds figure is an estimate — it would not surprise me if the real proportion is higher.)

Let me finish with a couple of examples. Colleagues in Germany feel sure that their numbers are nearer the truth than most, because they had plenty of testing capacity ready when the pandemic struck. Currently the death rate is 0.8 percent in Germany. If we assume that about one-third of the recorded deaths are due to COVID-19 and that they have managed to test a third of all cases in the country who actually have the disease (a generous assumption), then the death rate for COVID-19 would be 0.08 percent. That might go up slightly, as a result of death lag. If we assume at present that this effect might be 25 percent (which seems generous), that would give an overall, and probably upper limit, of death rate of 0.1 percent, which is similar to seasonal flu.

Let’s look at the UK numbers. As of 9 a.m. on Saturday there were 1,019 deaths and 17,089 confirmed cases — a death rate of 6.0 percent. If one third of the deaths are caused by COVID-19 and the number of cases is underestimated by a factor of say 15, the death rate would be 0.13 percent and the number of deaths due to COVID-19 would be 340. This number should be placed in perspective with the number of deaths we would normally expect in the first 28 days of March — roughly 46,000.

John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist.

So sticking firm at your 10k projected death toll in USA?

In sys's poll, I chose 50-100k deaths.  That would be the number of deaths reported which is generally the number of people that died while infected with coronavirus.  That likely translates into 15,000-35,000 deaths due to coronavirus.

[catastrophe]

Two follow ups.

1. On what basis are you assuming the US is reporting this way?

2. Does this actually sound right to you?

Consider some examples: an 87-year-old woman with dementia in a nursing home; a 79-year-old man with metastatic bladder cancer; a 29-year-old man with leukemia treated with chemotherapy; a 46-year-old woman with motor neurone disease for two years. All develop chest infections and die. All test positive for COVID-19. Yet all were vulnerable to death by chest infection from any infective cause (including the flu). COVID-19 might have been the final straw, but it has not caused their deaths.

[Kat Kid]

Just as predicted, warm up the goal posts.

[steve dave]

lmao


https://twitter.com/slade/status/1244684299762368515


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[star seed 7]

Just as predicted, warm up the goal posts.

The data adjustment has gone from 50% to 30% in like a day lol

[Dugout DickStone]

https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1244589387712790528


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this thread on that ship is something, they are coming from CHILE

https://twitter.com/FrancesRobles/status/1244617016511774723

How the hell are there still people on cruise ships at this point?

You telling me you don't absolutely believe that KazW would hit the cruise line for a sweet deal right now?

[cfbandyman]

I know it’s probably because of the weekend but our new cases are way down today so far. So that’s a positive thing.

TBH I think that is more of the case. If you look at the weekend two weeks ago it had a day that didn't really follow the trend, I think yesterday was more closer to that. I agree it seems the extreme growth is probably arrested, but to me it'll take several days before I would want to declare a trend. I think today's #s, which are are already not great, will be a new high for us (we're at 12k+ right now)

[michigancat]

Bay Area shelter in place extended to May 1

https://twitter.com/LondonBreed/status/1244703110875906049

[Phil Titola]

Bay Area shelter in place extended to May 1

https://twitter.com/LondonBreed/status/1244703110875906049

Surprised this took so long.  We've been locked in until 4/23 since last week (already signs of that extended from the mayor) and KC doesn't have near the reported cases yet.

[star seed 7]

Virginia goes until June 10th

[michigancat]

Virginia goes until June 10th

Dang

[Dugout DickStone]

I will say, this crisis has made me more aware of Joe Diffie

[Phil Titola]

Virginia goes until June 10th

This seems a bit much.  Go a month and give people updates.  Have to manage people's emotional well being as much as their physical.