Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread (Read 1070404 times)

DQ12 · « **Reply #7450 on:** June 04, 2020, 04:06:34 PM »

Quote from: Phil Titola on June 04, 2020, 03:48:33 PM

KC metro last 3 days are the biggest single days of cases yet. That doesn't seem so great.

Note there was at least one paper plant with 200 cases but still, that only accounts for 50% of the new cases over those 3 days

https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article243274646.html#storylink=mainstage_lead

I wish you could see testing numbers over time on a county level. Would be interested to see if % positive looks like over the last month.

Phil Titola · « **Reply #7451 on:** June 04, 2020, 04:09:22 PM »

Quote from: DQ12 on June 04, 2020, 04:06:34 PM

Quote from: Phil Titola on June 04, 2020, 03:48:33 PM
KC metro last 3 days are the biggest single days of cases yet. That doesn't seem so great.

Note there was at least one paper plant with 200 cases but still, that only accounts for 50% of the new cases over those 3 days

https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article243274646.html#storylink=mainstage_lead
I wish you could see testing numbers over time on a county level. Would be interested to see if % positive looks like over the last month.

True. That would be good data. Well our health director isn't throwing a fit and he is pretty much a Debbie downer so hopefully he feels like it's still manageable.

DQ12 · « **Reply #7452 on:** June 04, 2020, 04:48:09 PM »

FYI - 7 day average should get below 900 here in the next day or two.

michigancat · « **Reply #7453 on:** June 06, 2020, 02:28:08 PM »

Who wants to bet that any spike in cases in the next few weeks will be blamed on protests?

https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/1269169419998990336

sys · « **Reply #7454 on:** June 06, 2020, 05:40:04 PM »

great thread.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395239745146880

Trim · « **Reply #7455 on:** June 06, 2020, 06:23:23 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on June 06, 2020, 02:28:08 PM

Who wants to bet that any spike in cases in the next few weeks will be blamed on protests?

https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/1269169419998990336

And touching this one is gonna have me in ICU tonight.

michigancat · « **Reply #7456 on:** June 06, 2020, 06:25:50 PM »

Quote from: sys on June 06, 2020, 05:40:04 PM

great thread.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395239745146880

This is a good point, even beyond police brutality. Minorities are unhealthier because of structural racism

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395242429476864

CHONGS · « **Reply #7457 on:** June 06, 2020, 06:27:42 PM »

I thought we decided it was because they were too lazy/stupid to take enough vitamin D?

DQ12 · « **Reply #7458 on:** June 07, 2020, 08:30:23 AM »

Quote from: Chingon on June 06, 2020, 06:27:42 PM

I thought we decided it was because they were too lazy/stupid to take enough vitamin D?

Jesus, Chingon. Literally nobody said that.

DQ12 · « **Reply #7459 on:** June 07, 2020, 08:31:14 AM »

Also 7 day continues to drop. Down to 859.

sys · « **Reply #7460 on:** June 07, 2020, 11:28:09 AM »

trevor updated his thread with a longer-term outlook that implied many more deaths resulting from protests. i think some of his assumptions are overly aggressive and i suspect the number of infections resulting from the protests is smaller. nonetheless, i hope the protests resolve down soon.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533303536664576

michigancat · « **Reply #7461 on:** June 07, 2020, 12:39:46 PM »

Quote from: sys on June 07, 2020, 11:28:09 AM

trevor updated his thread with a longer-term outlook that implied many more deaths resulting from protests. i think some of his assumptions are overly aggressive and i suspect the number of infections resulting from the protests is smaller. nonetheless, i hope the protests resolve down soon.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533303536664576

My gut says that is way too high.

sys · « **Reply #7462 on:** June 07, 2020, 12:53:14 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on June 07, 2020, 12:39:46 PM

My gut says that is way too high.

it's very sensitive to the r assumed going forward. i think 0.95 is probably a fairly reasonable nationwide estimate (but precision is obviously low), but with a lot of regional variance. for example, r is well under 1.0 in nyc, and probably a fair bit over 1.0 in phoenix.

i'm just guessing, but i think protestors were more numerous in cities with low transmission rates than in cities with higher rates, so i think, at least initially, the transmission rate of infections resulting from protests will be lower than the national rate. i have absolutely no idea if the two rates could be expected to eventually converge, and if so how long that would take and what effect it would have on the number of resulting infections.

chum1 · « **Reply #7463 on:** June 08, 2020, 11:38:46 AM »

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1270018086310154241
https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/1269781054635868161
https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/1269788238350352384
https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/1269789771230072832

Phil Titola · « **Reply #7464 on:** June 08, 2020, 11:45:06 AM »

I thought if we moved on in the news cycle this thing would get bored and go away?

This seems like pretty bad news?

catastrophe · « **Reply #7465 on:** June 08, 2020, 11:57:42 AM »

Dallas has a pretty handy resource, although they focus a bit less on raw numbers and more on hospitalizations. Overall slight uptick in new hospitalizations and somewhere between being flat or decreasing in cases of hospitalized patients with confirmed positive tests.

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/060520-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf

Obviously hospitalizations are going to trail new cases, but still positive to see no real surge yet, whereas increased positive cases can just as well be a function of finally making testing more available.

sys · « **Reply #7466 on:** June 08, 2020, 11:59:26 AM »

there was a tweet a few days back that summed things up pretty well. there are like 5 states where infections are increasing, like 20 where they are holding steady or maybe slightly increasing and 25 or so where they are declining.

regionally, cases are increasing in the south, southwest and west, decreasing everywhere else.

Phil Titola · « **Reply #7467 on:** June 08, 2020, 12:00:20 PM »

Quote from: catastrophe on June 08, 2020, 11:57:42 AM

Dallas has a pretty handy resource, although they focus a bit less on raw numbers and more on hospitalizations. Overall slight uptick in new hospitalizations and somewhere between being flat or decreasing in cases of hospitalized patients with confirmed positive tests.

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/060520-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf

Obviously hospitalizations are going to trail new cases, but still positive to see no real surge yet, whereas increased positive cases can just as well be a function of finally making testing more available.

https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/1269826313768120320

catastrophe · « **Reply #7468 on:** June 08, 2020, 12:02:37 PM »

Quote from: Phil Titola on June 08, 2020, 12:00:20 PM

Quote from: catastrophe on June 08, 2020, 11:57:42 AM
Dallas has a pretty handy resource, although they focus a bit less on raw numbers and more on hospitalizations. Overall slight uptick in new hospitalizations and somewhere between being flat or decreasing in cases of hospitalized patients with confirmed positive tests.

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/C-19-risklevelmgmt/060520-DallasCounty-COVID-19-Hospitalization-Data.pdf

Obviously hospitalizations are going to trail new cases, but still positive to see no real surge yet, whereas increased positive cases can just as well be a function of finally making testing more available.

https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/1269826313768120320

Don’t disagree with anything there. I think in Texas you’ll see an increase in hospitalizations and ICU admissions this month, but not proportional to what the “record new case numbers” would suggest.

sys · « **Reply #7469 on:** June 08, 2020, 12:06:41 PM »

yeah, language like "record new cases" is accurate, but doesn't well convey the situation of a state that has had very low levels of infection all spring and is now slightly ticking up.

mocat · « **Reply #7470 on:** June 08, 2020, 12:59:35 PM »

Quote from: sys on June 08, 2020, 11:59:26 AM

regionally, cases are increasing in the south, southwest and west, decreasing everywhere else.

conference realignment really F'd missouri here

michigancat · « **Reply #7471 on:** June 08, 2020, 06:43:27 PM »

totally spitballing, but I wonder how much of these regional trends are driven by people in the south/southwest staying outside less because it's gotten hotter and people in the Midwest and New England staying outside more.

the other spitball theory (that actually has been looked into a little bit) is that the US's incarceration rate led to us having higher infection rates than a lot of places

https://twitter.com/ChiBondFund/status/1268930594437828608

DQ12 · « **Reply #7472 on:** June 08, 2020, 08:59:18 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on June 08, 2020, 06:43:27 PM

totally spitballing, but I wonder how much of these regional trends are driven by people in the south/southwest staying outside less because it's gotten hotter and people in the Midwest and New England staying outside more.

That's a really smart idea, Rusty. That would make sense.

MakeItRain · « **Reply #7473 on:** June 08, 2020, 09:02:09 PM »

NYC had a day last week with no coronavirus deaths? How in the hell did they do that and how is it that places like Iowa and Kansas don't seem to be close to having a day without deaths?

kim carnes · « **Reply #7474 on:** June 08, 2020, 09:13:33 PM »

Quote from: MakeItRain on June 08, 2020, 09:02:09 PM

NYC had a day last week with no coronavirus deaths? How in the hell did they do that and how is it that places like Iowa and Kansas don't seem to be close to having a day without deaths?

Kansas had one death yesterday.