CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[DQ12]

America has not turned into Lombardy, Italy. 

FFS...some of you people

[Phil Titola]

@LN You think I’m worried about me? People who live pay check to pay check, like waiters, bartenders, etc. are going through this right now. I tried to share my experience during this time and you decided to use it as a crutch to shame people who don’t vote your way. They haven’t updated their system in 40 years! What are they doing with their funds? Clown!

not trying to be a dick (have filled my quota for the time being)

and genuinely hope you receive your benefits soon

But I am curious as to what parts of the "system" haven't been updated in 40 years.

Like is everyone smoking cigs and cranking away on Commodore 64's?

You’re good, bud and I don’t believe you’re a wannabe dick to Most moderates about first time users (the system), but @TBT can you describe IT platforms for us, like the state of Kansas that maybe hasn’t updated theirs in 40 years and why it might be news worthy in IT during this time?

You'd be amazed at the amount of critical infrastructure is running of 40+ year old stuff.  It works.  If you keep it maintained this isn't as big of a deal as it sounds.  I have no insight into what the DOL at KS has running or how they have maintained it though.  Unemployment handling definitely isn't getting top billing in the budget game I'm sure to get migrated over.  Budget cuts matter.

[sonofdaxjones]

the disconnect of the Trumpers that are irate about lockdowns and their lack of realization the lockdown extensions have everything to do with this country's fumbling of getting mass testing going so we start to control this thing is pretty mesmerizing.  Not at all surprising though as the lack of self-awareness has been evident the entire time.

Even his return the economy committee of dimwits told him we can't open up until we get more testing.  SAYING we have more testing every night at a press conference doesn't count.  Frustrating.

LOL, no one smart in power has said anything different in regards to testing.

Phil gonna Phil, tho

[Phil Titola]

DBT: "Best Case Scenario."  That 40k number wasn't "business as usual."  That was his projection 4 days after shelter in place was ordered in NYC on March 20. 

The projections were off.  Cuomo didn't actually "need" 40000 ICU beds by April 14.  It's understandable why he and experts thought they would at the time, but they were wrong.  Either (1) the peak wasn't "14-21 days" after March 24, or (2) the peak was only an eighth as bad as he anticipated.  One of those things must be true. 

To be clear, this isn't an effort to "dunk on Cuomo/experts."  But I do think it's critical that we step back and appreciate that the projections were off because that's important.  For one thing, it's a huge relief.  But as time goes on, we get more data and should act accordingly.  At least in the NYC case study, today isn't as bad as we thought it would be -- which is great.  Conversely, the data also implies that this situation is going to last a lot longer than Cuomo/experts expected it to. I suppose that's inherent in any successful curve-flattening. 

So I guess my question is, what happens after the curve flattens?  If the country is still losing 500+ people a day in the Summer, are we still receiving trumpbux checks every few weeks?

It all depends on getting testing going and ability to trace out infections and isolate that.  We couldn't do that before so you have to assume everybody has it.  We can start to handle this more like a normal sickness now.  Nobody has even hinted at just maintaining what has happened the past month for a year, that's insanity.

Little by little things open up and continue to monitor the environment to ensure we're not over our skis

[Phil Titola]

the disconnect of the Trumpers that are irate about lockdowns and their lack of realization the lockdown extensions have everything to do with this country's fumbling of getting mass testing going so we start to control this thing is pretty mesmerizing.  Not at all surprising though as the lack of self-awareness has been evident the entire time.

Even his return the economy committee of dimwits told him we can't open up until we get more testing.  SAYING we have more testing every night at a press conference doesn't count.  Frustrating.

LOL, no one smart in power has said anything different in regards to testing.

Phil gonna Phil, tho

I agree and you realize we have to extend lockdowns because despite having a month to ramp up for testing, we screwed the pooch and still today aren't at the testing levels we said we'd be at weeks ago.  That is directly from Trump/Pence/Brix mouths.  That failure is keeping us holed up. 

Glad we agree on that.

[sonofdaxjones]

the disconnect of the Trumpers that are irate about lockdowns and their lack of realization the lockdown extensions have everything to do with this country's fumbling of getting mass testing going so we start to control this thing is pretty mesmerizing.  Not at all surprising though as the lack of self-awareness has been evident the entire time.

Even his return the economy committee of dimwits told him we can't open up until we get more testing.  SAYING we have more testing every night at a press conference doesn't count.  Frustrating.

LOL, no one smart in power has said anything different in regards to testing.

Phil gonna Phil, tho

I agree and you realize we have to extend lockdowns because despite having a month to ramp up for testing, we screwed the pooch and still today aren't at the testing levels we said we'd be at weeks ago.  That is directly from Trump/Pence/Brix mouths.  That failure is keeping us holed up. 

Glad we agree on that.

LOL, this is an unprecedented level of testing. 

Don’t even bother bringing up the rudimentary WHO test kits unless you wanted to see up to 50% false positives.   Which would have likely meant putting critical personnel in quarantine for up to 2 weeks for no reason. 

[DQ12]

Nobody has even hinted at just maintaining what has happened the past month for a year, that's insanity.

I'm not saying a year, I'm saying two or three more months.  I'm a little concerned about whether we can afford that.  And how NYC going 8x better than expected factors into the calculus.

[420seriouscat69]

@LN You think I’m worried about me? People who live pay check to pay check, like waiters, bartenders, etc. are going through this right now. I tried to share my experience during this time and you decided to use it as a crutch to shame people who don’t vote your way. They haven’t updated their system in 40 years! What are they doing with their funds? Clown!

not trying to be a dick (have filled my quota for the time being)

and genuinely hope you receive your benefits soon

But I am curious as to what parts of the "system" haven't been updated in 40 years.

Like is everyone smoking cigs and cranking away on Commodore 64's?

You’re good, bud and I don’t believe you’re a wannabe dick to Most moderates about first time users (the system), but @TBT can you describe IT platforms for us, like the state of Kansas that maybe hasn’t updated theirs in 40 years and why it might be news worthy in IT during this time?

You'd be amazed at the amount of critical infrastructure is running of 40+ year old stuff.  It works.  If you keep it maintained this isn't as big of a deal as it sounds.  I have no insight into what the DOL at KS has running or how they have maintained it though.  Unemployment handling definitely isn't getting top billing in the budget game I'm sure to get migrated over.  Budget cuts matter.

You’re trying to make this into a budget issue as a state paid employee. This is a once in a lifetime issue/crisis we’re going through right now and you’re trying to slap the right on the wrist for being cognitive of how we spend our tax dollars. That’s fine if you want to use this time to flex about how we spend our state dollars, but you work in the state of Missouri and aren’t an IT guy from all accounts that I’ve read. I think we can all agree that before we’re enhancing state funded employees salaries every year with our budgets, maybe let’s make sure our crap works first. This is like blaming trump for the virus for being unprepared, but also acting like “having a 40 year old plan/system is ok, as long as I’m getting mine, but yeah, we need more tax dollars to throw at this. This is why.!”- State employee Phil

[Bqqkie Pimp]

https://twitter.com/Jordan_Sather_/status/1250779550365048833

I hope everyone enjoys the show and government propaganda!!

 

[Phil Titola]

the disconnect of the Trumpers that are irate about lockdowns and their lack of realization the lockdown extensions have everything to do with this country's fumbling of getting mass testing going so we start to control this thing is pretty mesmerizing.  Not at all surprising though as the lack of self-awareness has been evident the entire time.

Even his return the economy committee of dimwits told him we can't open up until we get more testing.  SAYING we have more testing every night at a press conference doesn't count.  Frustrating.

LOL, no one smart in power has said anything different in regards to testing.

Phil gonna Phil, tho

I agree and you realize we have to extend lockdowns because despite having a month to ramp up for testing, we screwed the pooch and still today aren't at the testing levels we said we'd be at weeks ago.  That is directly from Trump/Pence/Brix mouths.  That failure is keeping us holed up. 

Glad we agree on that.

LOL, this is an unprecedented level of testing. 

Don’t even bother bringing up the rudimentary WHO test kits unless you wanted to see up to 50% false positives.   Which would have likely meant putting critical personnel in quarantine for up to 2 weeks for no reason.

We lost a month and that is entirely laying at the feet of Trump.  Glad we agree the failure for the government to get testing ramped up as they stood up and told us they would (remember when there were going to be drive ups in all Walgreens parking lots in March?)
https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/apr/09/trump-vowed-bring-drive-thru-covid-19-test-sites-s/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html

[sonofdaxjones]

 https://www.foxnews.com/science/mutation-strain-from-india-could-kill-current-research-efforts-for-coronavirus-vaccine-report

Amplifying the need for mitigative therapeutics.   

[michigancat]

Nobody has even hinted at just maintaining what has happened the past month for a year, that's insanity.

I'm not saying a year, I'm saying two or three more months.  I'm a little concerned about whether we can afford that.  And how NYC going 8x better than expected factors into the calculus.

I wonder where the 40k projections for NY ICU came from. Because on 3/25, the IMHE had a best-case of about 4k peak ICU beds. (according to this: http://www.covid-projections.com/)

Also, kind of interesting that NY had exactly 40k ICU beds in their best and worst case.

[catastrophe]

Yeah that part seems a bit insincere.

[Phil Titola]

@LN You think I’m worried about me? People who live pay check to pay check, like waiters, bartenders, etc. are going through this right now. I tried to share my experience during this time and you decided to use it as a crutch to shame people who don’t vote your way. They haven’t updated their system in 40 years! What are they doing with their funds? Clown!

not trying to be a dick (have filled my quota for the time being)

and genuinely hope you receive your benefits soon

But I am curious as to what parts of the "system" haven't been updated in 40 years.

Like is everyone smoking cigs and cranking away on Commodore 64's?

You’re good, bud and I don’t believe you’re a wannabe dick to Most moderates about first time users (the system), but @TBT can you describe IT platforms for us, like the state of Kansas that maybe hasn’t updated theirs in 40 years and why it might be news worthy in IT during this time?

You'd be amazed at the amount of critical infrastructure is running of 40+ year old stuff.  It works.  If you keep it maintained this isn't as big of a deal as it sounds.  I have no insight into what the DOL at KS has running or how they have maintained it though.  Unemployment handling definitely isn't getting top billing in the budget game I'm sure to get migrated over.  Budget cuts matter.

You’re trying to make this into a budget issue as a state paid employee. This is a once in a lifetime issue/crisis we’re going through right now and you’re trying to slap the right on the wrist for being cognitive of how we spend our tax dollars. That’s fine if you want to use this time to flex about how we spend our state dollars, but you work in the state of Missouri and aren’t an IT guy from all accounts that I’ve read. I think we can all agree that before we’re enhancing state funded employees salaries every year with our budgets, maybe let’s make sure our crap works first. This is like blaming trump for the virus for being unprepared, but also acting like “having a 40 year old plan/system is ok, as long as I’m getting mine, but yeah, we need more tax dollars to throw at this. This is why.!”- State employee Phil

a) it's kind of weird how you try and dox people and build up what everybody is based on posts.  It's wildly incorrect
b) I'm only saying if we don't provide money to upgrade these things, this is what happens.  Nobody is saying spend google money to build an unemployment system that hums at an event like this but it doesn't take an event this bad to even show cracks in how fragile these systems get when they are ignored for 40 years (is what you are claiming which I assume is correct).  My whole post was telling you a properly maintained system can easily run fine in this event even if it's "40 years old".  This has nothing to do with right/left, both sides have sliced these budgets down to nothingness.  It's not even just a money thing, it's the priorities of what we tell people to do. I would bet anything it's been brought up 1000 times to the leaders that "hey, that unemployment system is busted down, we should probably upgrade that at some point" and it's been immediately shot down.  "works good enough, we have some new fun toy to launch."

[sonofdaxjones]

the disconnect of the Trumpers that are irate about lockdowns and their lack of realization the lockdown extensions have everything to do with this country's fumbling of getting mass testing going so we start to control this thing is pretty mesmerizing.  Not at all surprising though as the lack of self-awareness has been evident the entire time.

Even his return the economy committee of dimwits told him we can't open up until we get more testing.  SAYING we have more testing every night at a press conference doesn't count.  Frustrating.

LOL, no one smart in power has said anything different in regards to testing.

Phil gonna Phil, tho

I agree and you realize we have to extend lockdowns because despite having a month to ramp up for testing, we screwed the pooch and still today aren't at the testing levels we said we'd be at weeks ago.  That is directly from Trump/Pence/Brix mouths.  That failure is keeping us holed up. 

Glad we agree on that.

LOL, this is an unprecedented level of testing. 

Don’t even bother bringing up the rudimentary WHO test kits unless you wanted to see up to 50% false positives.   Which would have likely meant putting critical personnel in quarantine for up to 2 weeks for no reason.

We lost a month and that is entirely laying at the feet of Trump.  Glad we agree the failure for the government to get testing ramped up as they stood up and told us they would (remember when there were going to be drive ups in all Walgreens parking lots in March?)
https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/apr/09/trump-vowed-bring-drive-thru-covid-19-test-sites-s/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html

It took 4 months to get enough test kits shipped to test 1 million people during the Swine Flu pandemic (a known virus). We’ve already tested nearly 4x more in the same time frame . . . For a novel virus.   You can’t bring yourself to admit that this is an unprecedented effort.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Nobody has even hinted at just maintaining what has happened the past month for a year, that's insanity.

I'm not saying a year, I'm saying two or three more months.  I'm a little concerned about whether we can afford that.  And how NYC going 8x better than expected factors into the calculus.

I wonder where the 40k projections for NY ICU came from. Because on 3/25, the IMHE had a best-case of about 4k peak ICU beds. (according to this: http://www.covid-projections.com/)

Also, kind of interesting that NY had exactly 40k ICU beds in their best and worst case.

Just a gut feel and I have no sources for this yet but if I had to venture a guess, I'd say it somehow traces back to Fauci &/or Redfield and most likely came through one of their propaganda mouthpieces at NYT.

[Phil Titola]

the disconnect of the Trumpers that are irate about lockdowns and their lack of realization the lockdown extensions have everything to do with this country's fumbling of getting mass testing going so we start to control this thing is pretty mesmerizing.  Not at all surprising though as the lack of self-awareness has been evident the entire time.

Even his return the economy committee of dimwits told him we can't open up until we get more testing.  SAYING we have more testing every night at a press conference doesn't count.  Frustrating.

LOL, no one smart in power has said anything different in regards to testing.

Phil gonna Phil, tho

I agree and you realize we have to extend lockdowns because despite having a month to ramp up for testing, we screwed the pooch and still today aren't at the testing levels we said we'd be at weeks ago.  That is directly from Trump/Pence/Brix mouths.  That failure is keeping us holed up. 

Glad we agree on that.

LOL, this is an unprecedented level of testing. 

Don’t even bother bringing up the rudimentary WHO test kits unless you wanted to see up to 50% false positives.   Which would have likely meant putting critical personnel in quarantine for up to 2 weeks for no reason.

We lost a month and that is entirely laying at the feet of Trump.  Glad we agree the failure for the government to get testing ramped up as they stood up and told us they would (remember when there were going to be drive ups in all Walgreens parking lots in March?)
https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/apr/09/trump-vowed-bring-drive-thru-covid-19-test-sites-s/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html

It took 4 months to get enough test kits shipped to test 1 million people during the Swine Flu pandemic (a known virus). We’ve already tested nearly 4x more in the same time frame . . . For a novel virus.   You can’t bring yourself to admit that this is an unprecedented effort.

Of course this is an unprecedented effort.  Are you saying we just shouldn't have listened to the president and his people when they told us how anybody that wants a test can get a test in early March?  How millions of tests would be available in the next week?  How drive up testing would be available all over the country?  The very reason we're sitting at home right now is because those things did not come to be.

You can play whataboutism with the swine flu all you want.  I didn't get locked in my house or cancel one plan for that.  Could that rollout been done better?  Hell if I know, it didn't impact my life for one second nor anybody else's life I've ever encountered.  Maybe Obama sucked at it, I don't care.  Trump failed here and it is because he blew it off in January and still today has no strategy to get is to where he said we'd be over a month ago. 

[420seriouscat69]

@LN You think I’m worried about me? People who live pay check to pay check, like waiters, bartenders, etc. are going through this right now. I tried to share my experience during this time and you decided to use it as a crutch to shame people who don’t vote your way. They haven’t updated their system in 40 years! What are they doing with their funds? Clown!

not trying to be a dick (have filled my quota for the time being)

and genuinely hope you receive your benefits soon

But I am curious as to what parts of the "system" haven't been updated in 40 years.

Like is everyone smoking cigs and cranking away on Commodore 64's?

You’re good, bud and I don’t believe you’re a wannabe dick to Most moderates about first time users (the system), but @TBT can you describe IT platforms for us, like the state of Kansas that maybe hasn’t updated theirs in 40 years and why it might be news worthy in IT during this time?

You'd be amazed at the amount of critical infrastructure is running of 40+ year old stuff.  It works.  If you keep it maintained this isn't as big of a deal as it sounds.  I have no insight into what the DOL at KS has running or how they have maintained it though.  Unemployment handling definitely isn't getting top billing in the budget game I'm sure to get migrated over.  Budget cuts matter.

You’re trying to make this into a budget issue as a state paid employee. This is a once in a lifetime issue/crisis we’re going through right now and you’re trying to slap the right on the wrist for being cognitive of how we spend our tax dollars. That’s fine if you want to use this time to flex about how we spend our state dollars, but you work in the state of Missouri and aren’t an IT guy from all accounts that I’ve read. I think we can all agree that before we’re enhancing state funded employees salaries every year with our budgets, maybe let’s make sure our crap works first. This is like blaming trump for the virus for being unprepared, but also acting like “having a 40 year old plan/system is ok, as long as I’m getting mine, but yeah, we need more tax dollars to throw at this. This is why.!”- State employee Phil

a) it's kind of weird how you try and dox people and build up what everybody is based on posts.  It's wildly incorrect
b) I'm only saying if we don't provide money to upgrade these things, this is what happens.  Nobody is saying spend google money to build an unemployment system that hums at an event like this but it doesn't take an event this bad to even show cracks in how fragile these systems get when they are ignored for 40 years (is what you are claiming which I assume is correct).  My whole post was telling you a properly maintained system can easily run fine in this event even if it's "40 years old".  This has nothing to do with right/left, both sides have sliced these budgets down to nothingness.  It's not even just a money thing, it's the priorities of what we tell people to do. I would bet anything it's been brought up 1000 times to the leaders that "hey, that unemployment system is busted down, we should probably upgrade that at some point" and it's been immediately shot down.  "works good enough, we have some new fun toy to launch."

I’m not trying to dox you, but I feel it’s important where the message is coming from. Now go post about your next Europe trip in the travel thread and suggest we all sit on the sidelines for a bit again while collecting a paycheck. Get how that comes off to some people you try to lecture on here now? I’m sure your heart is in the right place most of the time, but I think you’re lying to yourself that you’re not thinking about yourselves situation most of the time.

[michigancat]

From what I understand each state is using it's own models to inform decisions, which seems odd in some ways (if there's information that certain assumptions are inaccurate).

What I mean is they're choosing the models, not necessarily that they developed them from whole cloth.

I also think Cuomo in particular was juicing his numbers a bit at his early press conferences. I remember at one point he said he needed exactly as many ventilators as ICU beds and that didn't seem right to me.

But yeah you'd think at this point you could look back at all the models and see which one made the best assumptions. Maybe even have some sort of centralized group coordinate all the models the states were using.

[star seed 7]

So I heard this morning that a month ago the admin had said we'd need about 24 million tests at this point to be on track and we've only had 3 million thus far?

Uh, I'd say that test is still a major issue.

[DQ12]

I'm having a bit of a difficult time connecting how testing capacity is linked to the current measures, given the existence of asymptomatic/latent carriers. Unless everyone is getting tested regularly, we don't really know whether it's safe for us to be within 6 feet of one another.

Even if "anyone who wants to get tested can get tested" would we be doing anything different rn?

[michigancat]

I'm having a bit of a difficult time connecting how testing capacity is linked to the current measures, given the existence of asymptomatic/latent carriers. Unless everyone is getting tested regularly, we don't really know whether it's safe for us to be within 6 feet of one another.

Even if "anyone who wants to get tested can get tested" would we be doing anything different rn?

Right now if someone has mild symptoms and is a low risk patient, they probably won't be tested - they'll be told to go home and self-isolate. With adequate testing, people with mild symptoms could be tested and confirmed positive or negative. In theory, with adequate testing combined with some sort of contract tracing method, you could notify people who were in close contact with that mildly symptomatic person when they likely had the virus but were asymptomatic, and have them self-isolate for a period of time. I suppose you could do that now but most people are self isolating anyway.

[catastrophe]

If you’re doing contact tracing, the testing would allow you to allocate the tracing resources efficiently. Otherwise, yeah I think mostly it would just encourage sick people to stay home so they can’t be in denial about being a carrier.

[michigancat]

Also, the number of completely asymptomatic cases is pretty small I believe. Most people develop some symptoms

[XocolateThundarr]

I'm having a bit of a difficult time connecting how testing capacity is linked to the current measures, given the existence of asymptomatic/latent carriers. Unless everyone is getting tested regularly, we don't really know whether it's safe for us to be within 6 feet of one another.

Even if "anyone who wants to get tested can get tested" would we be doing anything different rn?

I'm in the same boat.  I don't think we would be doing anything different with increased testing.  I also think that the virus is probably going to be around for the rest of our lives and we are going to have to learn to live with it.  The entire country isn't going to be able to stay home forever.  I also believe that once a vaccine is developed, it's effectiveness will be somewhere on the order of the flu vaccine.   *I'm not an anti-vaxxer*