Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1069374 times)

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Offline sys

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13850 on: January 29, 2021, 03:37:22 AM »
as with rapid tests, you don't need 100% accuracy to have a huge effect.  if dogs can detect 90% at entry to some event, they can reduce transmission at that event by something like 90%, which is transformative.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13851 on: January 29, 2021, 03:39:33 AM »
this is for the uk, but the same holds true in the us - vaccines have probably already reduced future mortality by two-thirds, we just can't see it in the data yet.

https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/1355067194078601216
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline steve dave

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13852 on: January 29, 2021, 07:07:53 AM »
72% seems shitty compared to pfizer and moderna in the mid/upper 90s but everyone is saying with the new strains and other factors this is actually a great number and anything over 60% is considered successful.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1355140117321670663

Offline steve dave

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Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13854 on: January 29, 2021, 07:46:40 AM »
J&J 72% effective in U.S. trials, sub 70% in South America, sub 70% in prevention of severe (heavy viral load) cases, and sub 60% against the South African variant. 

 :blank:

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13855 on: January 29, 2021, 08:49:30 AM »
Picking up from the vaccine waste/distribution talk yesterday in the “do you know anyone with covid” thread...

A big hospital tweeted this at 11pm local last night:

https://twitter.com/Swedish/status/1355048024062500870

Success!? Haven’t read yet what the demos of arms they eventually installed the chips in was.

https://twitter.com/johnhopperstad/status/1355150661923475458


Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13857 on: January 29, 2021, 08:55:15 AM »
Which makes the J&J results disappointing, because you can stick those back in the Roper and they're good for 3 months.


Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13858 on: January 29, 2021, 08:58:15 AM »
I think people should be given a choice of what vaccine they would like to take. It's ridiculous to not offer that.

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13859 on: January 29, 2021, 09:14:56 AM »
Congrats #blueanon nation.

You're going to start seeing a reduction in positive cases, because almost right on cue the WHO has issued guidance on Ct.   Soon to come to the U.S. if not already here.   

Instead of Ct values of 37-40 in PCR testing, we'll see Ct values of 30 . . . tops.   Thus reducing the amplification of already low viral loads that in the vast majority of cases are both asymptomatic and non-infectious. 

Cases are most certainly going to drop simply by this measure alone.   How appropriately timed . . . should have bet on it.

There's only one state that requires Ct value reporting, Florida.

As someone who designs and does qPCR assays all the time - anything that comes up after cycle 30-32 is pretty much trash (spurious products, primer dimers, etc.). Reducing your cycles by 10 will save you ~15 mins per run and allow you to process more samples a day. Good, common sense molecular biology - especially for any diagnostics lab.

treysolid, could you help me understand what is going on here:

Quote
Subject: FW: COVID - KDHE Ct value

I reached out to both BioFire and Cepheid (GeneXpert) about cycle counts.  BioFire does not utilize a Ct. value (cycle value) to determine positive or negative specimens, it is qualitative and is based on melt curve analysis. Below is the response from Cepheid. Since this test is an EUA, I do not want to go off-label and adjust how we report our results. A validation study will be very involved and quite honestly, costly. I also don't think the CLIA inspectors will want us to deviate from manufacturer's guidelines on the EUA.

I went back through our last 19 positive specimens from the GeneXpert and 11 of the 19 fell between a Ct. value of 35 and 45. However, we are testing asymptomatic patients on this analyzer, so Ct. values should be higher because they aren't symptomatic which typically means the patient will have a lower viral load.

Thoughts?

 From: CEP Medical Science - Infectious Diseases <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, January 28, 2021 12:16 PM

*** NOTICE: This message originated from outside ----- ***
 
Dear --,

The 4plex test will report a positive SARSCOV2 target out to 45 cycles.   We designed this test with more cycles than usual to give extra high sensitivity.   To control the COVID-19 pandemic it’s important to accurately identify cases and not have false negative results in persons under suspicion.

Our test with the above cutoff has been fully validated through rigorous analytical and clinical studies to provide high sensitivity without compromising specificity.   If you elect to report results with SARSCOV2 Ct values above 35 as “negative”, this is an off-label modification and must be validated by your laboratory, according to relevant laboratory quality regulations.   

While RT-PCR results with weak positive (late Ct values) may not always correlate with presence of infectious virus, they do indicate the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, and taken together with relevant clinical and epidemiological information can confirm a COVID-19 case.  Persons with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 may have positive Rt-PCR results with late Ct values.  Also, persons in the pre-symptomatic phase, or late infection (> 1 week after symptom onset) may have late RT-PCR cycle thresholds.   Also, poorly collected specimens may have low target load and produce late Ct values.    But to call these results “negative”  would only reduce the sensitivity of the test, and lead to missed diagnoses.

So to conclude, Cepheid strongly discourages an off-label modification to the test to change positive results with Ct values >35 to negative.   This would not increase the specificity of the test, but rather, it would decrease the sensitivity.   Any off-label test modifications would have to be validated by the laboratory performing the test.

Best,

Mike Loeffelholz

REDACTED, Ph.D., D(ABMM)
Senior Director, Medical Affairs

Cepheid
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
WWW.CEPHEID.COM



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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13861 on: January 29, 2021, 09:24:20 AM »
Which makes the J&J results disappointing, because you can stick those back in the Roper and they're good for 3 months.



Sure, there's using a less effective 'chip because it allows for more time to eff around with it, or there's implementing some logistics that have the best 'chips being installed almost immediately upon receipt rather than procrastinating up to the deadlines.  Either way.

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13862 on: January 29, 2021, 10:13:45 AM »
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1355143391236005889

These details got me jazzed for J&J much more than the overall effectiveness %.

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13863 on: January 29, 2021, 10:25:47 AM »
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1355143391236005889

These details got me jazzed for J&J much more than the overall effectiveness %.
Yeah. The big thing is preventing hospitalizations and deaths. If you look at hospitalizations and deaths it was 100% effective.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13864 on: January 29, 2021, 10:40:51 AM »
Picking up from the vaccine waste/distribution talk yesterday in the “do you know anyone with covid” thread...

A big hospital tweeted this at 11pm local last night:

https://twitter.com/Swedish/status/1355048024062500870

Success!? Haven’t read yet what the demos of arms they eventually installed the chips in was.

https://twitter.com/johnhopperstad/status/1355150661923475458

 :clap:


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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13866 on: January 29, 2021, 11:06:17 AM »
https://www.king5.com/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine/health-workers-stuck-in-snow-give-other-drivers-vaccine/507-6b674eab-f7a0-4fce-b52d-0f96762fcb82

This is the can do attitude that will help us kick this thing's ass.

Yes, I think it's almost universally accepted now, most importantly by the chipping entities, that it's better to dispose of chips in an arm rather than a trash can.  Individual chip'rs always knew that but were getting shut down by bosses fearful of consequence for chipping someone out of tier (actual legal/financial consequence or misinformed shame/PR consequence).

That said, I still think it's crazy that chip'rs are even being put in a situation of running up against the clock and having to do 2am chipping in parking lots or on snow-blocked highways.  It's been pretty evident to everyone for months that the only real way out of this in america is chips, and that it's going to be a lot of work to get everyone chip'd in the ideal priority tiers.  How those tiers weren't literally lined up with arms out the second chips arrived, I have no idea.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13867 on: January 29, 2021, 11:24:33 AM »
I always assumed it would be like, priority group 1a, priority group 1b, and then gen pop. I sincerely hope they don’t keep trying to stagger this thing. I think you get severely diminishing returns after prioritizing the groups they have.

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Offline michigancat

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13869 on: January 29, 2021, 11:52:12 AM »
I always assumed it would be like, priority group 1a, priority group 1b, and then gen pop. I sincerely hope they don%u2019t keep trying to stagger this thing. I think you get severely diminishing returns after prioritizing the groups they have.

depending on how things are tiered group 2 will be so massive I don't think it will matter much

again, I think this discussion is an overreaction based on anecdotes. Supply is still the issue, not an inability to find people to jab.

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1355182688441937923

that's less than 0.5% of doses administered (and will likely continue to go down)

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13870 on: January 29, 2021, 12:13:15 PM »
again, I think this discussion is an overreaction based on anecdotes. Supply is still the issue, not an inability to find people to jab.

There was definitely never an inability to find people to jab.  There was a very shitty way of getting the priority people lined up to be jabbed at the right time, and once that had 'chips on the verge of expiration, a decision to not jab them in found people.  It's not an overreaction to be pissed about 2300+ of those decisions.

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13871 on: January 29, 2021, 12:34:30 PM »
again, I think this discussion is an overreaction based on anecdotes. Supply is still the issue, not an inability to find people to jab.

There was definitely never an inability to find people to jab.  There was a very shitty way of getting the priority people lined up to be jabbed at the right time, and once that had 'chips on the verge of expiration, a decision to not jab them in found people.  It's not an overreaction to be pissed about 2300+ of those decisions.

No doubt the prioritization framework came late and was sloppy, but we don't know how many of those 2300 were because of those prioritization decisions or how many would have been salvaged with better prioritization. You can choose to focus on whatever you want, but it's a tiny, tiny problem in the grand scheme of things.

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Re: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread
« Reply #13873 on: January 29, 2021, 02:21:39 PM »
So glad OJ got chipped today.  Now maybe we can keep track of him.

https://twitter.com/therealoj32/status/1355243085186256897?s=12


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