Author Topic: k-state hoops is so ordinary  (Read 7071 times)

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Offline j rake

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k-state hoops is so ordinary
« on: January 03, 2019, 12:48:44 PM »
the last time oscar's k-state team was #25 or better in kenpom's ratings in league play was...never. literally never. k-state has started as high as #15 (this year) and #19 (oscar's first, frank's players), and they've started as low as 109th (2015). but whether they improve or get worse or stay roughly the same, k-state is never a top-25 level team once conference play begins and they don't rise to that level by the time the season ends. never, ever. not once in seven years, including this year.

largely, k-state has been about a mid-40s level program. they've been better, and they've been worse. but mostly, they've been in the range of their seven-season average of #46.

here are the top 25 finishes in kenpom the last six years by Big 12 teams since oscar took the k-state job:

Kansas (6)*
Oklahoma St (3)
Iowa St (4)*
West Virginia (4)
Baylor (3)
Oklahoma (2)
Texas Tech (1)*
TCU (1)*
Texas (1)
Kansas St (0)

*currently a top-25 level team.

two of the three teams above that have just one top-25 finish are likely to have a second this year, and should be on solid footing going forward. and all the teams that finished with just one or two top 25s (including texas) have at least spent some time at that rating mid-season. but again, not k-state. not even for a day. oscar has never coached a top-25 level team at any point after january his entire tenure. he didn't do it his last year at illinois either.

i think a very reasonable argument can be made that k-state is the worst program in the conference.

credit to last year's team, they got hot at the right time. but they were never a top-25 level team, even at their very best, and if not for winning the ncaa tourney lottery (UMBC instead of UVa) and 3-pt variancing kentucky to death, last year was on the verge of being very forgettable just as this year will soon be.

the ncaa tourney makes rock stars out of ordinary teams. k-state was ordinary last year and they are ordinary this year. and they will be ordinary forever. because this team, this coach, these players, this athletic dept, this university, this town, is ordinary. and the more oscar coaches, the further they will fall, from an avg rating of #46 to #56 to #66. and when that happens, Phillips 66 will call and say, "hey, we're looking to do an ad deal and we'd love to sponsor the 66th best team in the land! could be good for branding!" and by the time gene inks the deal, k-state will already have fallen to #75, then to #100, and the offer will be off the table. and then k-state will lose to tulsa again.


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Offline porky morgan

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2019, 01:16:33 PM »
You're not wrong, JRake

Offline wetwillie

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2019, 01:17:31 PM »
He’s a SLTH, you don’t need 10 paragraphs to articulate that.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2019, 01:28:45 PM »
This has convinced me that we should definitely keep oscar.

Offline Oyster_Trousers

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2019, 06:44:48 PM »
He’s a gem
KU made the better hire....Miles is a sure fire grantee

Online ben ji

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2019, 07:54:11 PM »
I enjoy reading jrake's posts and am glad he is posting again.
"I think my grandpa killed some body once, he never liked to talk about Kent State though"

Offline michigancat

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2019, 08:16:12 PM »
my goodness jrake, I think you're right.

Offline j rake

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2019, 08:43:53 PM »
it's seriously so sad to see what k-state has become.

2011 and 2012 were the glory years of k-state athletics. i don't think it will ever get as good as that.

Offline steve dave

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2019, 09:15:37 PM »
good call j rake

Offline j rake

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2019, 09:40:01 PM »
oh well, at least we still have k-state 2025.  :Woot:

Offline DaBigTrain

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k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2019, 09:45:25 PM »
Most j rake posts are way too long to read, so I just assume based on everyone else’s reaction to judge them. They have been getting tremendous reviews so I decided to finally read a long one. Wow, I now understand what everyone is raving about. Great stuff j rake! :thumbs:

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2019, 09:47:39 PM »
Has anyone been keeping track of the being-kenpom-ranked-during-conference-season metric before now? This sorta looks like an extremely elaborate continuation of our practice of moving the bar for oscar year after year, which is pretty lol.

A team with 40s-ish rankings should be a pretty good bet to make the tournament. Making the tournament is good.

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2019, 09:56:09 PM »
On Jan 13, the domain firebrucewebernow.com will become available I hear. The owner is NOT renewing.

Offline Tobias

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2019, 11:22:19 PM »
i read his post in mena suvari's voice, i think that's how he meant it?

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #14 on: January 03, 2019, 11:24:14 PM »
j rake is a treasure. Great post.

Offline sys

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #15 on: January 03, 2019, 11:33:55 PM »
what i despise is that they revel in their ordinariness.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #16 on: January 03, 2019, 11:43:37 PM »
the ncaa tourney makes rock stars out of ordinary teams.

NOPE. DO NOT WANT.

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #17 on: January 03, 2019, 11:50:33 PM »
Best case scenario is to be kenpom ranked throughout the entire conference season and then not make the tournament. It's like peak unordinariness.

Offline Spracne

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #18 on: January 03, 2019, 11:57:45 PM »
Seems to me that striving for perfect ordinariness is the Mission Statement of the KSU.

Offline Trim

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2019, 12:10:57 AM »
Best case scenario is to be kenpom ranked throughout the entire conference season and then not make the tournament. It's like peak unordinariness.

:love:

Offline Trim

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2019, 12:12:28 AM »
Quote from: j rake on kstatembb
lol at these regular persons

Offline j rake

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #21 on: January 04, 2019, 12:21:13 AM »
Has anyone been keeping track of the being-kenpom-ranked-during-conference-season metric before now? This sorta looks like an extremely elaborate continuation of our practice of moving the bar for oscar year after year, which is pretty lol.

A team with 40s-ish rankings should be a pretty good bet to make the tournament. Making the tournament is good.

kenpom started allowing you to see how a team is rated on a game-by-game basis in recent years (he has this data as far back as the 2010-11 season). a team's overall rating is partly tethered to what kenpom rates you in the preseason. so it generally takes a decent sample of games until you begin to get a clear picture of a team's quality. certainly, your rating in games 20-thru-30 will be much more meaningful than games 1-thru-10.

i agree that if you can be a top-40 level team consistently, year after year, then that is perfectly fine. but oscar hasn't been that (he's had teams rated in the mid-50s and low 80s already), and he has yet to demonstrate any serious upside. it's really hard to not have at least ONE top-25 level team across seven years. if not this year, with the alleged best team returning since the martin years, then when?

the obvious rebuttal is to point to last year and say that as long as you make the tourney, anything can happen. which is true! but literally 99 times out of 100, if you're an 8 or 9 seed, you ain't drawing the 16 seed; and your odds of advancing to the Sweet 16 are <20% when you don't.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 12:24:16 AM by j rake »

Offline j rake

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2019, 12:28:51 AM »
Quote from: j rake on kstatembb
lol at these regular persons

i can't believe how long i was a regular person for. i was literally wearing carpenter style jeans at age 25.  :frown:

Offline Trim

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2019, 12:36:07 AM »
:lol:

Offline Cire

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Re: k-state hoops is so ordinary
« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2019, 12:38:42 AM »
Top 40 isn't bad.

04 grad.


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