Author Topic: Blue wave/red wave 2018 midterms prediction thread, now add your own! (Read 24232 times)

Pretty good at over estimating D success on most of the "toss up" races. Basically being wrong more than half the time.

But yeah, they zinged the uncontested matters and uncompetitive races. The races you don't need a model to predict who will win.

wetwillie · « **Reply #215 on:** November 07, 2018, 09:54:10 AM »

Quote from: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on November 07, 2018, 09:49:42 AM

Quote from: sys on November 07, 2018, 09:42:37 AM
polls and predictive modelling did pretty well. again.

Pretty good at over estimating D success on most of the "toss up" races. Basically being wrong more than half the time.

But yeah, they zinged the uncontested matters and uncompetitive races. The races you don't need a model to predict who will win.

Like Kansas Governors race

sys · « **Reply #216 on:** November 07, 2018, 10:01:20 AM »

the polls didn't do a great job with the senate races, but the predictive models did very well at modelling the likelihood of correlated polling errors in senate races.

there were like nine billion house races and the polls got a lot right and some a little wrong and some a lot wrong. i haven't looked to see if there were any trends in the errors, but overall the seemed to be pretty accurate.

sys · « **Reply #217 on:** November 07, 2018, 10:08:23 AM »

i know no one except me cares, but i won 8 of 9 election bets on predictit. i lost on gillum. i also mumped up by selling out of allred and nunes when they went up, i'd have won both if i'd have kept them.

most races i bought into over 50 cents and a few were gimmees, but still, a good show for polling since all my bets were based on polling.

chum1 · « **Reply #218 on:** November 10, 2018, 08:20:33 AM »

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1061049737565126656

Shooter Jones · « **Reply #219 on:** November 10, 2018, 10:06:54 AM »

California may be +32-ish overall for the dems in that state alone after this. Lol.

sys · « **Reply #220 on:** November 12, 2018, 10:05:32 PM »

Quote from: sys on October 28, 2018, 03:52:32 PM

Quote from: sys on September 18, 2018, 01:33:34 PM
Quote from: sys on August 09, 2018, 04:13:25 PM
r +1 senate
d +25 house

nunes wins ca22 by 6, cruz wins tx by 5.

i'm updating my prediction to:

d +0 senate
d +35 house

nunes wins by 4, cruz by 3.

r +1 senate
d +38 house

nunes plus 5, cruz plus 6.

it's gonna end up r +2 senate, d +38-40 house. nunes is +10 now, but should fall to 8 or 9 when all the ballots are counted. cruz +2.6. i underestimated beto and nunes, but not too bad, overall.

Shooter Jones · « **Reply #221 on:** November 13, 2018, 10:51:52 AM »

Have these been posted on here? Pretty historical for recent Pub presidents to lose that many house seats in his first midterm.

Trump: -38/40 house, +2 Senate
Obama: -63 house, -5 Senate
Bush: +8 house, +1 Senate
Clinton: -54 house, -5 Senate
Bush: -7 house, -1 Senate

mocat · « **Reply #222 on:** November 13, 2018, 10:58:34 AM »

somebody help me out: pubs were +3 in the senate late last week; which race flipped?

star seed 7 · « **Reply #223 on:** November 13, 2018, 11:22:14 AM »

Someone probably counted Arizona or Montana

sys · « **Reply #224 on:** November 13, 2018, 11:25:25 AM »

Quote from: mocat on November 13, 2018, 10:58:34 AM

somebody help me out: pubs were +3 in the senate late last week; which race flipped?

they're still counting in az, but mcsally conceded as it became obvious there weren't enough ballots left for her to catch up.