2020 presidential candidate 'crats

[MakeItRain]

I don’t really see much material difference between a Biden presidency and a second trump term.

no offense, wetwillie, but that's ridiculous.

How so? What has Biden told you to think otherwise? All of the stupid crap aside, and I know that's tough to do. Trump hasn't governed from the far right, with the very notable exception of the "muslim ban." Again, it isn't like Biden has expressed any plans for anything at all. He'll probably rejoin the Paris Climate Accord, can we think of any other differences? 

[sys]

You think swing state voters who voted Trump 2016 are tired of Trump and will switch? Seems pretty flimsy, I think the Trump presidency has gone exactly how everyone thought it would go, or you have folks like dax who have rationalized any possible disappointment.

it's more about differential turnout and people deciding to vote third party or not (3rd party votes were pretty high in 2016) than people actually going r to d.  although there is some of that too.  i think our own 420cat is probably someone who voted trump in 2016, but would vote for biden if it is biden v trump in 2020.

at any rate, i really do recommend reading some of bitecofer's stuff on voter behavior for stuff like this.  she's very good at explaining some of the basic patterns and rationale.

[michigancat]

You think swing state voters who voted Trump 2016 are tired of Trump and will switch? Seems pretty flimsy, I think the Trump presidency has gone exactly how everyone thought it would go, or you have folks like dax who have rationalized any possible disappointment.

it's more about differential turnout and people deciding to vote third party or not (3rd party votes were pretty high in 2016) than people actually going r to d.  although there is some of that too.  i think our own 420cat is probably someone who voted trump in 2016, but would vote for biden if it is biden v trump in 2020.

at any rate, i really do recommend reading some of bitecofer's stuff on voter behavior for stuff like this.  she's very good at explaining some of the basic patterns and rationale.

Yeah I've followed her but haven't seen the good primer.

And wacky will vote Trump again

[420seriouscat69]

I won't vote Trump again. I stated previously that I probably just won't vote, but I use to like Biden (as a person (mainly)) before I thought he was getting dementia.

[420seriouscat69]

I would vote Trump vs Bernie tho. If it's Biden, I probably just won't show up.

[chum1]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that a Biden administration would be FAR less corrupt than the Trump administration. Not sure if anyone cares about that sort of thing.

[sys]

How so?

1.  biden will appoint liberal judges, trump conservative judges.
2.  biden will sign any legislation a dem leg sends him and veto any leg a 'pub leg sends him.  trump will do the opposite.
3.  biden will appoint traditionally qualified technocratic dems to executive branch political appointments and broadly govern with executive orders that advance consensus dem party goals subject to constitutional checks by the other branches of government.  trump will appoint republican sycophants and grifters with no concern for competence and broadly use executive power to further his own interests and base republican goals while doing everything possible to escape normative and legal restrictions on executive power.

[MakeItRain]

You think swing state voters who voted Trump 2016 are tired of Trump and will switch? Seems pretty flimsy, I think the Trump presidency has gone exactly how everyone thought it would go, or you have folks like dax who have rationalized any possible disappointment.

it's more about differential turnout and people deciding to vote third party or not (3rd party votes were pretty high in 2016) than people actually going r to d.  although there is some of that too.  i think our own 420cat is probably someone who voted trump in 2016, but would vote for biden if it is biden v trump in 2020.

at any rate, i really do recommend reading some of bitecofer's stuff on voter behavior for stuff like this.  she's very good at explaining some of the basic patterns and rationale.

There simply aren't enough people where one could reasonably think a vote for Biden won't eventually be seen exactly the same as a vote for Hilary was. You can make the argument that Trump has picked up just as many votes than he would lose. The economy is as good as it has been in a couple of generations, there's no denying that. Most voters won't care to get into the nuance of why the economy is great and the timing of it. GHWB lost because the economy was crap and he drug us into a war, neither will be the case here.

I'm shocked that the Democrats think that using the same formula won't produce the same results, I'm starting to think that they don't care.

[sys]

I would vote Trump vs Bernie tho. If it's Biden, I probably just won't show up.

differential turnout!

[michigancat]

Dang, Joe was in my neighborhood today! Was just talking to someone how I've never been to a buttercup diner but I drive past them all the time

https://twitter.com/Lefebvre_Sam/status/1234906768515317760?s=19

[michigancat]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that a Biden administration would be FAR less corrupt than the Trump administration. Not sure if anyone cares about that sort of thing.

Eh he'd just be smarter about it

[chum1]

I wonder how many voters know enough about the platforms of Hillary and Biden to even make a rudimentary comparison. I would guess very few.

[MakeItRain]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that a Biden administration would be FAR less corrupt than the Trump administration. Not sure if anyone cares about that sort of thing.

I'm not sure about that at all. Money has corrupted the entire system, not just one party. It's why myself and others are leery of the establishment. Less corrupt, yeah, probably. FAR less? Nah.

How so?

1.  biden will appoint liberal judges, trump conservative judges.
2.  biden will sign any legislation a dem leg sends him and veto any leg a 'pub leg sends him.  trump will do the opposite.
3.  biden will appoint traditionally qualified technocratic dems to executive branch political appointments and broadly govern with executive orders that advance consensus dem party goals subject to constitutional checks by the other branches of government.  trump will appoint republican sycophants and grifters with no concern for competence and broadly use executive power to further his own interests and base republican goals while doing everything possible to escape normative and legal restrictions on executive power.

1. Does this matter if the balance of the Supreme Court doesn't change? Which it likely won't.
2. Neither of them are getting any bills, particularly a Dem, the Senate isn't changing hands.
3. This is true, not sure what large scale difference it will make.


I think both of you make good point about how the optics of a Biden presidency will be different. I don't have any idea how years 48-52 of moderate rule makes any significant change to how we live our lives and how business is done is Washington.


 

[michigancat]

I wonder how many voters know enough about the platforms of Hillary and Biden to even make a rudimentary comparison. I would guess very few.

I couldn't tell you anything about Joe's actual platform other than he's not Trump

[chum1]

I wonder how many voters know enough about the platforms of Hillary and Biden to even make a rudimentary comparison. I would guess very few.

I couldn't tell you anything about Joe's actual platform other than he's not Trump

And that's the only thing that's going to matter!

[sys]

I'm shocked that the Democrats think that using the same formula won't produce the same results, I'm starting to think that they don't care.

we actually have a lot of head to head polling data on trump vs the various candidates.  it's not just everyone diving into their own head and trying extrapolate from their own thoughts how other people view the world (although that can be helpful, i'm not completely knocking it).

biden generally has polled a point or two better than sanders over the last year.  that mostly reversed and they were about even over the last month or so when sanders overtook biden as frontrunner.

my own interpretation on that is that biden probably has a durable advantage of about a point, maybe a little less, compared to sanders and that there is a dem consolidation effect worth about a point that accrues to the frontrunner.

both are very well-known and have pretty defined public images, so while opinions would change if they became the dem nominee (dems would like them more, independents and republicans would like them less), there's no good reason to think one would change more or less than the other.

obviously, a one point advantage isn't all that much and either could win or lose.

[MakeItRain]

I wonder how many voters know enough about the platforms of Hillary and Biden to even make a rudimentary comparison. I would guess very few.

Doesn't that make my point? Trump can play the same notes. But her emails will be replaced by more Bengazi talk. It is way too easy to link the Clintons with Biden, their political careers have been intertwined.

[michigancat]

I wonder how many voters know enough about the platforms of Hillary and Biden to even make a rudimentary comparison. I would guess very few.

I couldn't tell you anything about Joe's actual platform other than he's not Trump

And that's the only thing that's going to matter!

Hillary wasn't Trump either!

[sys]

[I couldn't tell you anything about Joe's actual platform other than he's not Trump

you'd probably be amazed at how similar it is to sanders.

[MakeItRain]

The Biden drop off and surge is amazing, but that's also a crazy inverse with Sanders.

https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1234818710797504512

These 538 models are really dumb, these swings are indicative of the fact that these models are simply throwing darts at a board in the dark. There is literally nothing that has happened that should have swung the model that far. Biden grossly underperformed in each state leading up to SC. Even if you want to say that he over performed there, that doesn't not only negate his previous poor performance but negates Bernie's performances as well. And LMAO if they are incorporating those endorsements into this model. What the hell are they going to do if Bernie runs away with CA, TX, MA, and NC like some think that he will?

One other point about this model. This is the third time Biden has run for president and the first state he's ever won. How does their supposedly mathematical model swing so wildly on one result that is such a large departure from the mean?

[MakeItRain]

[I couldn't tell you anything about Joe's actual platform other than he's not Trump

you'd probably be amazed at how similar it is to sanders.

lol

[sys]

One other point about this model. This is the third time Biden has run for president and the first state he's ever won. How does their supposedly mathematical model swing so wildly on one result that is such a large departure from the mean?

i don't think the model incorporates biden's unsuccessful runs in previous years into their projections.  there's a tiny bit of polling data that went in today that moved the model a good bit more and pretty much validated what the model had already been predicting about voter shifts following the south carolina result.

at any rate, we'll find out tonight and tomorrow how the model performed, but i'd put my money on the model being broadly correct (literally am doing so, have several predictit bets placed on today's races).

[MakeItRain]

One other point about this model. This is the third time Biden has run for president and the first state he's ever won. How does their supposedly mathematical model swing so wildly on one result that is such a large departure from the mean?

i don't think the model incorporates biden's unsuccessful runs in previous years into their projections.  there's a tiny bit of polling data that went in today that moved the model a good bit more and pretty much validated what the model had already been predicting about voter shifts following the south carolina result.

at any rate, we'll find out tonight and tomorrow how the model performed, but i'd put my money on the model being broadly correct (literally am doing so, have several predictit bets placed on today's races).

How will the model be proven right though? Bernie is the delegate leader and he's almost 100% guaranteed to increase his delegate lead tonight. What dictates success in light of this?

[chum1]

her emails will be replaced by more Bengazi talk.

Hillary wasn't Trump either!

The number of people who have left the Republican Party seems like a decent indication that 2020 is not exactly like 2016. And 2016 was incredibly close! And Trump seemed to catch every break!

[sys]

if vote and delegate totals are broadly in the range projected today instead of the range projected prior to south carolina.