My theory of the race is pretty simple.
There are a lot of candidates that have zero shot in this race:
gillibrand, klobuchar, buttigeg (sp?), castro, hickenlooper, yang, gabbard, inslee
then there are people that have some sort of shot:
booker, warren, sanders, harris
of those 4, we can pretty clearly divide them in to 2 groups:
warren/bernie- DNC would not like to win
booker/harris- DNC would like to win
harris is going to have much more appeal to actual voters than Booker's bizarre complete lack of a platform bromides and he will get hit hard by even Harris on Wall St. stuff
Bernie has built his own fundraising base and has a whole infrastructure from his last run that will overwhelm warren even if she surprises in Iowa
do you want me to talk about Biden? He has no shot, he is going to get completely destroyed from all sides.
Abrams/Beto? let's wait for the roll out, but I would say Beto has the higher name ID and a slightly better shot, but I don't think he will be able to work his schtick for the whole time without getting in to policy at some point and I don't think his fundraising or style of politics will be nearly as appealing in a big dem primary as opposed to against someone as despicable as Ted Cruz in a place where he got tons of outside money from people trying to grab a Texas Senate seat. I just don't see it.
