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Author Topic: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats  (Read 541549 times)

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Offline sys

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #825 on: March 08, 2019, 11:50:06 PM »
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Offline steve dave

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #826 on: March 09, 2019, 06:43:01 AM »
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Online Kat Kid

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #827 on: March 09, 2019, 07:12:45 AM »
Quote from: sys on March 08, 2019, 07:59:58 PM
Quote from: Kat Kid on March 08, 2019, 11:51:03 AM
My theory of the race is pretty simple...

in general, i think you are a projecting far too much certainty in some aspects of the status quo (harris maintaining her lead among non-biden/bernie candidates) and far too little in other aspects (biden falling apart).  i refer you back to the graph i posted indicating that like 90%ish of the electorate are undecided.  most of those probably wouldn't be able to name more than three candidates unprompted.

i also have some quibbles with your statement of the status quo.  for example, you list warren in the top tier.  her poll numbers have been falling pretty steadily almost from since her post-launch bump and she is reportedly already experiencing money problems.  i'd consider her more likely to withdraw before iowa than end up in the top 4.


imo, anyone that a) has access to enough money to keep a legit campaign afloat for a year, and b) has demonstrated political appeal has a shot at this.  there's a reason the field is so large (and growing), there's no one with an advantage large enough to scare other candidates out.

This is my best guess and it is way too early.  I didn't know that about Warren, but I don't think she will give up before Iowa, but if she does that is another huge boost to Bernie (along with Sherrod Brown not running).
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Online Kat Kid

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #828 on: March 09, 2019, 10:13:06 AM »
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Offline sys

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #829 on: March 09, 2019, 10:22:55 AM »
i've been sitting on socialistsforhickenlooper.com since early '15, so you can imagine how relieved i am that he was able to keep the brand alive.

https://twitter.com/DavidRutz/status/1104022020453478400
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Offline michigancat

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #830 on: March 09, 2019, 02:00:32 PM »
Quote from: sys on March 09, 2019, 10:22:55 AM
i've been sitting on socialistsforhickenlooper.com since early '15, so you can imagine how relieved i am that he was able to keep the brand alive.

https://twitter.com/DavidRutz/status/1104022020453478400
lol that was odd
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Offline steve dave

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #831 on: March 10, 2019, 08:14:30 AM »
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Online Kat Kid

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #832 on: March 10, 2019, 08:38:59 AM »
"Liz. (arugla leafe protruding from his mouth, balsamic/pine nut mix crusting over the corner of his mouth) You can't run because you are a woman and the BernieBros will never put up with it.  Look what they did to Hillary. You know the Indian thing hurts you too, Boston Braves? Left for Atlanta.  Which, by the way, you will not make it past New Hampshire to the South.  You're done."

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Offline sys

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #833 on: March 11, 2019, 10:04:22 AM »
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Offline Institutional Control

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #834 on: March 11, 2019, 10:07:43 AM »
Uh oh.... people are getting scared of Pete and are putting him in their cross-hairs.

#teampete
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Offline sys

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #835 on: March 11, 2019, 10:09:15 AM »
pretty sure that was positive coverage, actually.
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Offline star seed 7

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #836 on: March 11, 2019, 12:42:11 PM »
Sad I missed this townhall, lots of really great quotes in this.

https://twitter.com/JRubinBlogger/status/1105145606669037568
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Online Kat Kid

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #837 on: March 11, 2019, 04:13:41 PM »
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Online Kat Kid

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #838 on: March 11, 2019, 05:59:34 PM »
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Offline sys

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #839 on: March 11, 2019, 07:20:02 PM »
Quote from: Kat Kid on March 11, 2019, 04:13:41 PM
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-brief-history-of-primary-polling-part-iii/

in a couple of months, i think we'll have a considerably better idea of how the election is likely to play out.
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Online wetwillie

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #840 on: March 11, 2019, 07:26:41 PM »
Sys how many of these candidates do you think make it to the first debate? I would like to see the top 7 stick around until then at least.
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Offline sys

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #841 on: March 11, 2019, 07:27:27 PM »
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Offline sys

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #842 on: March 11, 2019, 07:30:48 PM »
Quote from: wetwillie on March 11, 2019, 07:26:41 PM
Sys how many of these candidates do you think make it to the first debate? I would like to see the top 7 stick around until then at least.

all of them that qualify, i would think.  there's no pressure point that would force them out beforehand.


i've seen people that seem like they know what they're talking about say that candidates basically never withdraw until they run out of money.  and they don't really need money before the debate.
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Online wetwillie

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #843 on: March 11, 2019, 07:33:31 PM »
That’s great news, I’m considering breaking my own rule and voting for Biden despite a near certainty he has dementia.  Would like to see some good theatrics in the leadup to doing so.
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Online Kat Kid

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #844 on: March 11, 2019, 07:37:58 PM »
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Offline sys

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #845 on: March 11, 2019, 07:43:53 PM »
kinda going off that silver article you posted.  i think you can key off biden and bernie.  if a month after biden is in his polls are up, he's more likely than not gonna win.  if he's down, then look at bernie.  if biden is falling and bernie moves over 30% then he's more likely than not gonna win.

if biden falls and bernie is static or falls then it's more likely than not gonna be one of the newcomers.  maybe you'll be able to pick out a favorite, or maybe not, but at least you'll have an idea that there's a good chance it'll be one of them.


if neither biden nor bernie moves, then i dunno.
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Offline chum1

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #846 on: March 11, 2019, 08:03:01 PM »
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Offline dal9

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #847 on: March 11, 2019, 08:12:04 PM »
walker, lol.  probably one repub who would be worse than trump even.
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Offline Institutional Control

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #848 on: March 11, 2019, 09:02:16 PM »
Quote from: wetwillie on March 11, 2019, 07:26:41 PM
Sys how many of these candidates do you think make it to the first debate? I would like to see the top 7 stick around until then at least.
I gave $3 to Pete tonight so he gets enough donors to qualify for the debate.

#teampete


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Offline mocat

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Re: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats
« Reply #849 on: March 11, 2019, 09:05:56 PM »
Someone link me a video where Pete pronounces his own last name, tia
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