Author Topic: 2020 presidential candidate 'crats (Read 541642 times)

sys · « **Reply #2300 on:** June 25, 2019, 08:46:32 PM »

Quote from: Kat Kid on June 25, 2019, 02:40:05 PM

Really good tool for looking at support for 2020 dem field

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/democratic-presidential-candidates/polls/

yes, this is awesome.

what results in the previous polls were you discussing as outliers or not?

sys · « **Reply #2301 on:** June 25, 2019, 09:29:35 PM »

man, some of those candidate plots are eye-opening - sometimes an unexpected skew, but mostly seeing the magnitude of a known skew. buttigieg's is pretty lol in magnitude in so many of the categories.

Kat Kid · « **Reply #2302 on:** June 26, 2019, 06:08:36 AM »

Quote from: sys on June 25, 2019, 08:46:32 PM

Quote from: Kat Kid on June 25, 2019, 02:40:05 PM
Really good tool for looking at support for 2020 dem field

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/democratic-presidential-candidates/polls/

yes, this is awesome.

what results in the previous polls were you discussing as outliers or not?

Everyone couldn’t shut up about the Warren is second, Bernie losing ground narrative (and Biden’s 30+%) and those two polls had none of those things.

I’m coming round to the view that Biden’s African-American support may not be as loyal as he thinks and in the next four months might leave him if he isn’t the safe road to victory everyone thinks, or if he starts taking major hits on his record.

Kat Kid · « **Reply #2303 on:** June 26, 2019, 06:15:21 AM »

Quote from: sys on June 25, 2019, 09:29:35 PM

man, some of those candidate plots are eye-opening - sometimes an unexpected skew, but mostly seeing the magnitude of a known skew. buttigieg's is pretty lol in magnitude in so many of the categories.

Yeah Pete’s support being all white college and terrible among all other demos was pretty lol.

Warren has a similar problem.

Bernie’s 15% seems like his absolute bottom, but he is going to have to work pretty hard to get past 30% this time I think.

sonofdaxjones · « **Reply #2304 on:** June 26, 2019, 09:33:29 AM »

Pete . . . clinging to a toe hold in South Bend INDIANA opts to run for POTUS

Meanwhile Beto is having his jeans starched and ironed.

Kat Kid · « **Reply #2305 on:** June 26, 2019, 10:24:05 AM »

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1143902231781150722

I agree

sys · « **Reply #2306 on:** June 26, 2019, 02:45:51 PM »

Quote from: Kat Kid on June 26, 2019, 06:08:36 AM

Everyone couldn’t shut up about the Warren is second, Bernie losing ground narrative (and Biden’s 30+%) and those two polls had none of those things.

there have been some good twitter expositions in the last few days on some pretty obvious house effects some of the polls have and how the internet panel polls are bouncing around way more than the live call polls, which kinda makes sense.

at any rate, because of those huge skews, buttigieg and to a lesser extent warren, are going to bounce around more depending on how the poll samples and weights their samples.

to look for movement nationally, i pretty much just stick with the morning consult, because it's huge, it's weekly and it's an apples to apples. it may be off by a fair bit for some candidates (or it may not be), but if you're just comparing it to itself, you should be able to see any movement or lack thereof.

CHONGS · « **Reply #2307 on:** June 26, 2019, 04:41:17 PM »

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-democratic-presidential-candidate-policies/

sys · « **Reply #2308 on:** June 26, 2019, 07:00:05 PM »

this is pretty nice.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-poll/

Trim · « **Reply #2309 on:** June 26, 2019, 07:43:16 PM »

https://twitter.com/TheRealOJ32/status/1144039359512862720

wetwillie · « **Reply #2310 on:** June 26, 2019, 09:25:48 PM »

Anyone else watching this besides me and the juice?

sonofdaxjones · « **Reply #2311 on:** June 26, 2019, 09:33:08 PM »

https://twitter.com/kimstrassel/status/1144049204446130176?s=21

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

SkinnyBenny · « **Reply #2312 on:** June 26, 2019, 10:02:41 PM »

I played, didn't get that drunk

Trim · « **Reply #2313 on:** June 26, 2019, 10:08:07 PM »

Didn't watch, I'll wait for OJ's take.

Brock Landers · « **Reply #2314 on:** June 26, 2019, 10:10:30 PM »

Quote from: wetwillie on June 26, 2019, 09:25:48 PM

Anyone else watching this besides me and the juice?

I turned it on about an hour ago. Pretty much a shitshow, Chuck Todd is a terrible moderator.

Why are Delaney and Deblasio and Inslee even there.
Tulsi came off the top rope onto Tim Ryan's face. Good for Tulsi but not enough.
Castro did pretty well IMO, I think he really improved his stock and visibility
Beto was uneven, probably sucked overall but I thought his closing was good
Booker - meh, I think he's an empty suit but I suspect people think he did well
Klobuchar - meh, very little charisma
Liz was obviously the best, she was talking a lot when I first started watching then she disappeared until the end.

Did I mention all of them? It feels like I'm one short but who the hell can keep up with so many candidates.

wetwillie · « **Reply #2315 on:** June 26, 2019, 10:14:54 PM »

Tim Ryan doubling down on Afghanistan and the taliban boogeyman felt like a fighter taking a dive in the middle rounds.

catastrophe · « **Reply #2316 on:** June 26, 2019, 11:25:19 PM »

DVR'd and watching now 25 minutes in. Warren and my man Castro are solid. Beto has been a huge disappointment. Like, dude you got criticized for not having any concrete policies already and you're going to just speak in platitudes every time you get a question?