I have never been the one to compare one game to another but I think a different perspective is needed here.
Vandy was ran over by Florida an average offense at best. Florida put over 30 points against Vandy and very much like UT Florida's struggles on offense have almost became a yearly epidemic.
Vandy plays UGA tomorrow morning and throughout the years they have always challenged the Dawgs so I think that game will gives us a better understanding of Vandy.
Problem with a short passing game against UT is the 3-4 they play. So unless K State can begin to get the safties to stay back in fear of long passes then anything in the flat and in the space between the LBs and Safties' is not happening. Problem is that Ertz may not have the arm strength and the UT's pass rush is too strong.
So...losing by 28 to UGA is going to tell us what we already know, that Vandy is average?
As for the game in Austin. I think your point on the 3-4 is well said. Although I would like to see things like this happen -- the shorter passes -- I don't expect to see it going that way, not necessarily because of the 3-4 from UT though. After last week's game, which I know people are down about, was a game where we really did move the ball using the slothfense , as _fan noted earlier. I don't think the offensive coaching staff sees a reason to change at the moment. It'll be the same recipe.
I think Ertz has the arm strength, however I'm concerned about his confidence throwing the ball right now.
It's going to be a low scoring, close game. Both defenses are quality. Field position, turnover margin, etc.