Author Topic: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros  (Read 11067 times)

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Offline Clevey 2 Times

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #75 on: October 06, 2017, 11:35:09 AM »
I don't think UT is anything special on either side of the ball. Our run D is really good, so they probably won't score much. If our offense can sustain drives (biggest issue the last 2 games, imo), and our ST are solid, we should win.

Settling for FGs kills the perception of offensive success. K-State scored on 7 of 10 meaningful drives before running out the clock on the last one. One FG that we settled for Baylor actually stopped us and McCrane made a tough kick from 49 yards. 2 of the other 3 drives ended up in clear dropped passes, 1 would have kept the drive going and 1 was a TD. The other drive ended in being stopped on run plays inside of the 10 yard line and indications are Ertz missed a cut off of a block that would've allowed him to score on that one.

The offense wasn't nearly as bad as everyone made it out to be. I know you can't have those plays back, but the Cats could've easily scored 12 more points by getting those 3 TDs instead of FGs and everyone probably feels good about a 45-20 win. That's why the results of the Baylor game don't freak me out too much, not finishing those drives is a) uncharacteristic of Dimel's offense and b) very fixable with slightly better execution.

Now, that doesn't discount the train wreck of an offense game that we had at Vanderbilt against what is obviously an average SEC team.

This is after thinking about it what makes me feel better about the last two games. We are a better team than what has shown, and we have done it to ourselves much more than the other team doing it to us. Those are correctable, I don't think our WRs suck, they sure as hell didn't suck the first 2 games (and I know that was bad competition) but we just weren't inexplicably dropping passes in those games, and now we are. I think the WRs as a group are overthinking things and are trying too hard, instead of acting and making plays.

I do think though that is where I get a little miffed about the coaching, we should be running more high success rate passing plays (ie the damn drop passed for the TD that Zuber should've had) early in the game to get the confidence up, and get everyone more comfortable. WR screens, easy out patterns and the like should be what we do early. We need to set the guys up for success, not trying to go vertical or down the field from the get go.

We look the last two games like a team that is trying too hard and forcing things instead of letting things come as you draw it up.

I think we'll look back on Vandy as an outlier, a very disappointing one, as they do seem pretty average now that we're a month into the season.

As for the receivers -- get them touches early and on easy routes. They're a talented bunch. You gotta think we could run 10% less Ertz battering ram runs, instead calling quick outs or slants, etc. Pringle, especially, can take it the distance on short passes, plus we keep Glass Joe healthy at QB. Not many teams will score a bunch on our defense, we don't need supreme performance from the offense, just ball control.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #76 on: October 06, 2017, 11:38:04 AM »
I agree with that, but those drops/mistakes by receivers bring doubt which in turn effects the play caller. I'm hopeful we'll see that change soon; I absolutely agree more passing game, even short, would be a good move to save hits on Ertz.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #77 on: October 06, 2017, 12:26:12 PM »
The group of returning receivers (Pringle, Heath, Harris, Zuber) showed that they were a better group catching the ball last year. Last year those 4 had a catch rate of 59.3% (catches/targets), this year they are at 50.8%. Statistically it is much more likely they have a really good group of games to help that catch rate recover toward the norm. And you would expect improvement because they should be better at routes, Ertz should be better at throws, etc. just based on the experience. Its possible that as a group they could regress, but I don't think its likely.

Catch rate comparison:
Player   2017   2016   DIF
Byron Pringle   37.5%   47.0%   -9.5%
Dominique Heath   33.3%   69.2%   -35.9%
Isaiah Harris   45.5%   100.0%   -54.5%
Isaiah Zuber   68.0%   58.5%   9.5%
Total   50.8%   59.3%   -8.5%


Here is the full chart for receiving stats, focusing on our four key returners from last year at the WR spot.

I know it doesn't make up for this year's disappointing loss to Vandy, but it is crazy that the only senior with stats at a skill position is Ertz. If Thompson/Delton are any good taking over, next year's offense could be really good. And I'm counting on this year's getting things figured out and being a top 30 offense at least.



Offline CaliforniaLonghorn

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #78 on: October 06, 2017, 12:30:31 PM »
I have never been the one to compare one game to another but I think a different perspective is needed here.
Vandy was ran over by Florida an average offense at best. Florida put over 30 points against Vandy and very much like UT Florida's struggles on offense have almost became a yearly epidemic.
Vandy plays UGA tomorrow morning and throughout the years they have always challenged the Dawgs so I think that game will gives us a better understanding of Vandy.

Problem with a short passing game against UT is the 3-4 they play. So unless K State can begin to get the safties to stay back in fear of long passes then anything in the flat and in the space between the LBs and Safties' is not happening. Problem is that Ertz may not have the arm strength and the UT's pass rush is too strong.

Offline CaliforniaLonghorn

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #79 on: October 06, 2017, 12:42:04 PM »
The problem with UT is if K State ran move the ball on the ground and if Ertz can gain yards with his feet.
Then the old issue might reemerge for UT and that is blown coverage.
Maryland was able to take advantage of this but both the QB's they had at that time had good arms.

Offline Clevey 2 Times

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #80 on: October 06, 2017, 01:11:54 PM »
I have never been the one to compare one game to another but I think a different perspective is needed here.
Vandy was ran over by Florida an average offense at best. Florida put over 30 points against Vandy and very much like UT Florida's struggles on offense have almost became a yearly epidemic.
Vandy plays UGA tomorrow morning and throughout the years they have always challenged the Dawgs so I think that game will gives us a better understanding of Vandy.

Problem with a short passing game against UT is the 3-4 they play. So unless K State can begin to get the safties to stay back in fear of long passes then anything in the flat and in the space between the LBs and Safties' is not happening. Problem is that Ertz may not have the arm strength and the UT's pass rush is too strong.

So...losing by 28 to UGA is going to tell us what we already know, that Vandy is average?

As for the game in Austin. I think your point on the 3-4 is well said. Although I would like to see things like this happen -- the shorter passes -- I don't expect to see it going that way, not necessarily because of the 3-4 from UT though. After last week's game, which I know people are down about, was a game where we really did move the ball using the slothfense , as _fan noted earlier. I don't think the offensive coaching staff sees a reason to change at the moment. It'll be the same recipe.

I think Ertz has the arm strength, however I'm concerned about his confidence throwing the ball right now.

It's going to be a low scoring, close game. Both defenses are quality. Field position, turnover margin, etc.

Offline CaliforniaLonghorn

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #81 on: October 06, 2017, 01:36:21 PM »
Have you ever played any type of athletics when you didn't really trust what the coach was trying to tell you. Usually it happens a lot more in basketball than other spots but it happens in all sports I have been involved in.
That was the issue with the previous staff especially on Defense with UT. Kansas St because they have had a system in place for such a long time never has had this issue.
Players like Malik Jefferson have seen the reward in playing in Todd Orlando' system. He is slotted to be a first round pick now because of Todd Orlando. UT players buy into the system because they see the rewards of more money in the NFL. Elliot is another one.
This trust factor in coaching is what changed UT's defense. Maybe K State will reinforce the old ideas into UT or maybe K State will reinforce additional trust in Todd Orlando.
Whatever happens I expect a great game

Offline meow meow

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #82 on: October 06, 2017, 01:47:09 PM »
srry bruh, da Catz r comin 4 dat azzz

Offline PIPE

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #83 on: October 06, 2017, 01:54:31 PM »
Texas changing QB's......anyone want to change their predicto's?

UT 26
Cats 13

Awaiting the inevitable KITN

Offline scottwildcat

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #84 on: October 06, 2017, 02:09:59 PM »
Texas changing QB's......anyone want to change their predicto's?

UT 26
Cats 13



texas by more than what i predicted when i thought a banged up SB was going to play.

Offline schreds21

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #85 on: October 06, 2017, 02:11:02 PM »
Birthday boy beats the gum chewing goatee 24-17
:Woohoo:

Offline Trim

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #86 on: October 06, 2017, 02:19:19 PM »
Trim's vodka & 7's: 20
Horns: 23

:frown:

Offline XocolateThundarr

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #87 on: October 06, 2017, 02:51:04 PM »
42-10

Cats win big.

@mikec2w

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #88 on: October 06, 2017, 07:53:18 PM »
We keep it within reach till we take some risks late in the 4th that don't pay off and they get a dagger pick 6 to win by 2 possesh.

Tacos: 28
Gatos: 17

Offline porky morgan

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #89 on: October 06, 2017, 10:08:47 PM »
Bevo 9. K-stateo 24

Return game gifts us 10 points.

Offline CyberToothCat

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #90 on: October 06, 2017, 11:14:19 PM »
With Ertz playing limited snaps, our offense is a complete disaster. The defense starts strong but is constantly put on the field in bad situations, and starts to wear down in the second half.

Horns 31
Cats 3

Offline That_Guy

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #91 on: October 06, 2017, 11:34:36 PM »
‘Cats - 24
‘Horns - 23


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Offline AndrewVonLintel

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #92 on: October 06, 2017, 11:51:21 PM »
31-13 

Cats!!!!!!!

It is very weird for us to expect a 3rd bad game in a row from the offense.

Iowa State and Texas both looked pretty crappy in their game.

It is time to get back on track.
Hire Brad Underwood Now!!!!!!

Offline ELL3

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #93 on: October 06, 2017, 11:57:24 PM »
Texas 34 K-State 13

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #94 on: October 07, 2017, 08:47:46 AM »
Cats breeze to a W and tame the horns

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #95 on: October 07, 2017, 09:13:00 AM »
The line dropped to +3.5 earlier this week and moved back to +6 after UT announced the true freshman would start.

That's Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!), imho
goEMAW Karmic BBS Shepherd

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #96 on: October 07, 2017, 09:13:34 AM »
Put another way, CONFIDENCE RISING
goEMAW Karmic BBS Shepherd

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #97 on: October 07, 2017, 09:39:12 AM »
Surprise surprise, the whole Gameday crew picked Texas. David Pollack specifically called out the dropped balls and disappointing offense. I have consistently found him to be BITB for doing his homework and telling it like it is among the ESPN crew.

Offline CyberToothCat

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #98 on: October 07, 2017, 10:34:38 AM »
The line dropped to +3.5 earlier this week and moved back to +6 after UT announced the true freshman would start.

That's Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!), imho

Or... the line moved back as word started to leak that Ertz would be limited.

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #99 on: October 07, 2017, 11:38:42 AM »
The line dropped to +3.5 earlier this week and moved back to +6 after UT announced the true freshman would start.

That's Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!), imho

Or... the line moved back as word started to leak that Ertz would be limited.

When was that announced?
goEMAW Karmic BBS Shepherd