Kobach our next goofenor? Please no. He's running

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Lots of interesting info on the state of play for provisional ballots in this article today. https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article216446680.html

The most provisional ballots are in Sedgwick County, followed closely by Johnson. Together, they account for over 40% of the provisionals. However, while we know the total number of provisional ballots cast (about 9,000?) we have no idea how many of those were cast in the GOP primary. The provisionals cast in the Dem primary obviously don’t matter at all. But they won’t know that until after they unseal the ballot, which doesn’t happen until after they determine if the ballot can be cast. So there’s a likelihood that perhaps 50% or more of the provisionals don’t even matter.

However, it also seems that anecdotally some provisional ballots may have been cast by Democrats or unafiliated liberals wanting to cast votes for Colyer in the GOP primary but who had not changed their party affiliation to Republican. So to the extent those votes are ultimately counted, Colyer has to like his chances.

My personal suspicion is that Colyer gets enough of a boost from the provisionals to erase his 110 vote deficit.

so 9k ballots, if we assume per the article that 2/3 are valid, that's 6k.  overall, the dem/pub split was about 30/70, so call it 2/3 again and there are about 4k votes still coming.  maybe 1500 of those from johnson and sedgwick.

Except that I’m not sure you can assume that the provisionals will split 30/70 Dem/Pub. Provisionals generally skew Dem because Dem voters are more prone to not following the rules (showing up without an ID, showing up at wrong polling place, forgetting to update address, etc.). So half or more the provisionals may be in the Dem primary and meaningless.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Lots of interesting info on the state of play for provisional ballots in this article today. https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article216446680.html

The most provisional ballots are in Sedgwick County, followed closely by Johnson. Together, they account for over 40% of the provisionals. However, while we know the total number of provisional ballots cast (about 9,000?) we have no idea how many of those were cast in the GOP primary. The provisionals cast in the Dem primary obviously don’t matter at all. But they won’t know that until after they unseal the ballot, which doesn’t happen until after they determine if the ballot can be cast. So there’s a likelihood that perhaps 50% or more of the provisionals don’t even matter.

However, it also seems that anecdotally some provisional ballots may have been cast by Democrats or unafiliated liberals wanting to cast votes for Colyer in the GOP primary but who had not changed their party affiliation to Republican. So to the extent those votes are ultimately counted, Colyer has to like his chances.

My personal suspicion is that Colyer gets enough of a boost from the provisionals to erase his 110 vote deficit.

KazzuDubz, how do you predict Kobach will react if that happens?

If the margin is within a few hundred, I think a lawsuit is possible. Most of this is cut and dry but there are a few sticky issues that invite a lawsuit if the margin is super close.

First, you have the counting of mailed ballots. State law requires the ballots to be postmarked by Election Day. If the postmark is illegible or the PO effed up, there’s a possibility that some valid ballots won’t be counted, but the counties need that postmark to comply with the law.

Second, a bigger problem are the unaffiliated libs who showed up to vote Colyer. The law requires you to declare a party before voting. Sounds simple. But if the poll workers misinformed unaffiliated voters to just vote provisionally, that’s a problem. It’ll be almost impossible to prove that, however.

So the counting of these ballots should be clear in most cases, but will be unclear in some cases, which invites a suit by either party if the margin is close enough. Whether that suit is brought before or after a recount is another issue. M

Here’s what they should do: Count every provisional and mailed ballot that is indisputabley valid and update the totals. Then allow for a recount of those tabulated votes. Then appoint a special master to open the remainder of the ballots that were set aside as disputed and see if counting those would impact the final result. It would be foolish to waste time and money litigating an issue that won’t effect the final outcome.

[sys]

Except that I’m not sure you can assume that the provisionals will split 30/70 Dem/Pub. Provisionals generally skew Dem.

i don't think it will skew that much, but even if you assume 50:50, that's 3k instead of 4k.  different, but not hugely so.  we have a pretty good idea of how many votes are incoming.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

I don't think this Kansas statehouse race is getting the overage it deserves (but I'm not giving it its own thread).

Paul Waggoner, a fiscal conservative, challenged State Rep Steven Becker for the 104th District. Becker is socially and fiscally liberal and a fraud Republican, but he has eked out the past few election cycles.

On election night, Waggoner at first thought he had prevailed by 37 votes. But later that evening, when county staff realized they had failed to upload results from two advance voting sites, Waggoner's lead shrank to one single vote. 2,014 to 2,013.

“Are you serious? Are you serious?” Waggoner asked when The News reached him around 11 p.m. with the new numbers and the one-ballot difference.

“Oh, this is fun. Wow. That is something,” he said.

This past Friday, after counting all mail-in ballots, Waggoner's lead grew to a much safer 5 votes.

“That’s a fairly strong break. I’m just very pleased,” Waggoner said Friday afternoon. “A five-point margin is much more comfortable.”

this guy is adorable!

There are still 65 provisional ballots to be reviewed, but Waggoner is confident.

Considering that about half of them will be deemed ineligible to be counted, Waggoner said, that reduces the number of outstanding ballots in the 104th to about 30, he estimated. “They would have to break pretty strongly for Becker,” said Waggoner, to overcome the five-vote margin.

http://www.hutchnews.com/news/20180810/update-kobach-waggoner-gain-in-reno-county-vote-count

[catastrophe]

Man that guy is bad with numbers.

[star seed 7]

Man that guy is bad with numbers.

"fiscal conservative"

[SkinnyBenny]

So when are the gubernatorial mail ins counted? When will we know who’s suing whom?

[Dr Rick Daris]

Lots of interesting info on the state of play for provisional ballots in this article today. https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article216446680.html

The most provisional ballots are in Sedgwick County, followed closely by Johnson. Together, they account for over 40% of the provisionals. However, while we know the total number of provisional ballots cast (about 9,000?) we have no idea how many of those were cast in the GOP primary. The provisionals cast in the Dem primary obviously don’t matter at all. But they won’t know that until after they unseal the ballot, which doesn’t happen until after they determine if the ballot can be cast. So there’s a likelihood that perhaps 50% or more of the provisionals don’t even matter.

However, it also seems that anecdotally some provisional ballots may have been cast by Democrats or unafiliated liberals wanting to cast votes for Colyer in the GOP primary but who had not changed their party affiliation to Republican. So to the extent those votes are ultimately counted, Colyer has to like his chances.

My personal suspicion is that Colyer gets enough of a boost from the provisionals to erase his 110 vote deficit.

KazzuDubz, how do you predict Kobach will react if that happens?

If the margin is within a few hundred, I think a lawsuit is possible. Most of this is cut and dry but there are a few sticky issues that invite a lawsuit if the margin is super close.

First, you have the counting of mailed ballots. State law requires the ballots to be postmarked by Election Day. If the postmark is illegible or the PO effed up, there’s a possibility that some valid ballots won’t be counted, but the counties need that postmark to comply with the law.

Second, a bigger problem are the unaffiliated libs who showed up to vote Colyer. The law requires you to declare a party before voting. Sounds simple. But if the poll workers misinformed unaffiliated voters to just vote provisionally, that’s a problem. It’ll be almost impossible to prove that, however.

So the counting of these ballots should be clear in most cases, but will be unclear in some cases, which invites a suit by either party if the margin is close enough. Whether that suit is brought before or after a recount is another issue. M

Here’s what they should do: Count every provisional and mailed ballot that is indisputabley valid and update the totals. Then allow for a recount of those tabulated votes. Then appoint a special master to open the remainder of the ballots that were set aside as disputed and see if counting those would impact the final result. It would be foolish to waste time and money litigating an issue that won’t effect the final outcome.

who decides what is "indisputabley [sic] valid"?

[ChiComCat]

So when are the gubernatorial mail ins counted? When will we know who’s suing whom?

From what I saw, the deadline is a week from today.  So Monday or Tuesday of next week should give us the initial winner, pending lawsuits.

[chum1]

Looking forward to gubernatorial candidate Kris Kobach filing a lawsuit against Secretary of State Kris Kobach.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Lots of interesting info on the state of play for provisional ballots in this article today. https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article216446680.html

The most provisional ballots are in Sedgwick County, followed closely by Johnson. Together, they account for over 40% of the provisionals. However, while we know the total number of provisional ballots cast (about 9,000?) we have no idea how many of those were cast in the GOP primary. The provisionals cast in the Dem primary obviously don’t matter at all. But they won’t know that until after they unseal the ballot, which doesn’t happen until after they determine if the ballot can be cast. So there’s a likelihood that perhaps 50% or more of the provisionals don’t even matter.

However, it also seems that anecdotally some provisional ballots may have been cast by Democrats or unafiliated liberals wanting to cast votes for Colyer in the GOP primary but who had not changed their party affiliation to Republican. So to the extent those votes are ultimately counted, Colyer has to like his chances.

My personal suspicion is that Colyer gets enough of a boost from the provisionals to erase his 110 vote deficit.

KazzuDubz, how do you predict Kobach will react if that happens?

If the margin is within a few hundred, I think a lawsuit is possible. Most of this is cut and dry but there are a few sticky issues that invite a lawsuit if the margin is super close.

First, you have the counting of mailed ballots. State law requires the ballots to be postmarked by Election Day. If the postmark is illegible or the PO effed up, there’s a possibility that some valid ballots won’t be counted, but the counties need that postmark to comply with the law.

Second, a bigger problem are the unaffiliated libs who showed up to vote Colyer. The law requires you to declare a party before voting. Sounds simple. But if the poll workers misinformed unaffiliated voters to just vote provisionally, that’s a problem. It’ll be almost impossible to prove that, however.

So the counting of these ballots should be clear in most cases, but will be unclear in some cases, which invites a suit by either party if the margin is close enough. Whether that suit is brought before or after a recount is another issue. M

Here’s what they should do: Count every provisional and mailed ballot that is indisputabley valid and update the totals. Then allow for a recount of those tabulated votes. Then appoint a special master to open the remainder of the ballots that were set aside as disputed and see if counting those would impact the final result. It would be foolish to waste time and money litigating an issue that won’t effect the final outcome.

who decides what is "indisputabley [sic] valid"?

The SOS and the Governor. They’re going to agree on some. Not on others. As I said above, and this article now confirms, the key dispute is going to be the unaffiliated voters (most of whom being libs who showed up to vote against KK by voting for Colyer) but who allege they were told to cast ballots provisionally instead of filling out the paperwork to register GOP. Proving that will be extremely murky. So set these aside until the end, count the stuff that isn’t in dispute, and then hand the rest over to a court-appointed special master to open and decide whether it’s even worth fighting over.

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article216584870.html

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Sounds like JoCo is finished with ruling on provisionals and we’ll get the results tomorrow afternoon. Lots of good info in this article. https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/election/article216489915.html

Including this nugget:

One voter died after casting a ballot, which prompted the election office to recommend the vote be treated as invalid.

“We only had one of those. Thank God,” Metsker told the commissioners.

Sedgwick’s finished, too. https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article216602730.html

We’ll know a lot more about the state of the race tomorrow at 4pm!

[Rage Against the McKee]

What is the rationale behind throwing out a vote because the voter later died?

[star seed 7]

Election integrity, duh

[Dr Rick Daris]

Lots of interesting info on the state of play for provisional ballots in this article today. https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article216446680.html

The most provisional ballots are in Sedgwick County, followed closely by Johnson. Together, they account for over 40% of the provisionals. However, while we know the total number of provisional ballots cast (about 9,000?) we have no idea how many of those were cast in the GOP primary. The provisionals cast in the Dem primary obviously don’t matter at all. But they won’t know that until after they unseal the ballot, which doesn’t happen until after they determine if the ballot can be cast. So there’s a likelihood that perhaps 50% or more of the provisionals don’t even matter.

However, it also seems that anecdotally some provisional ballots may have been cast by Democrats or unafiliated liberals wanting to cast votes for Colyer in the GOP primary but who had not changed their party affiliation to Republican. So to the extent those votes are ultimately counted, Colyer has to like his chances.

My personal suspicion is that Colyer gets enough of a boost from the provisionals to erase his 110 vote deficit.

KazzuDubz, how do you predict Kobach will react if that happens?

If the margin is within a few hundred, I think a lawsuit is possible. Most of this is cut and dry but there are a few sticky issues that invite a lawsuit if the margin is super close.

First, you have the counting of mailed ballots. State law requires the ballots to be postmarked by Election Day. If the postmark is illegible or the PO effed up, there’s a possibility that some valid ballots won’t be counted, but the counties need that postmark to comply with the law.

Second, a bigger problem are the unaffiliated libs who showed up to vote Colyer. The law requires you to declare a party before voting. Sounds simple. But if the poll workers misinformed unaffiliated voters to just vote provisionally, that’s a problem. It’ll be almost impossible to prove that, however.

So the counting of these ballots should be clear in most cases, but will be unclear in some cases, which invites a suit by either party if the margin is close enough. Whether that suit is brought before or after a recount is another issue. M

Here’s what they should do: Count every provisional and mailed ballot that is indisputabley valid and update the totals. Then allow for a recount of those tabulated votes. Then appoint a special master to open the remainder of the ballots that were set aside as disputed and see if counting those would impact the final result. It would be foolish to waste time and money litigating an issue that won’t effect the final outcome.

who decides what is "indisputabley [sic] valid"?

The SOS and the Governor. They’re going to agree on some. Not on others. As I said above, and this article now confirms, the key dispute is going to be the unaffiliated voters (most of whom being libs who showed up to vote against KK by voting for Colyer) but who allege they were told to cast ballots provisionally instead of filling out the paperwork to register GOP. Proving that will be extremely murky. So set these aside until the end, count the stuff that isn’t in dispute, and then hand the rest over to a court-appointed special master to open and decide whether it’s even worth fighting over.

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article216584870.html

i'm lost. how do the SOS and the Governor decide this together and how do we know that most of the unaffiliated voters were libs voting against kk?

[star seed 7]

You have to factor in that kdub believes most ks state politicians are secret liberal democrats

[sys]

Sounds like JoCo is finished with ruling on provisionals and we’ll get the results tomorrow afternoon. Lots of good info in this article. https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/election/article216489915.html

Sedgwick’s finished, too. https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article216602730.html

so that sounds like 2800 votes incoming from johnson and sedgwick.  that should be both dem and pub votes if i understand those articles correctly.  even so, that seems to running on the higher side of my estimate of 4k pub votes remaining, suggesting fewer ballots were eliminated.

[DQ12]

this is all very exciting

[sys]

What is the rationale behind throwing out a vote because the voter later died?

yeah, i don't get that either.

also, you'd think that there would be state-wide guidance on whether the ballots of voters who failed to declare a party would be counted rather than each county deciding independently.

[Mrs. Gooch]

What is the rationale behind throwing out a vote because the voter later died?

Did he die before or after election day?

[sys]

the article didn't say that it was an early vote, but that would make sense.  i think i would still argue that election day for that voter was when he/she cast their vote during the state approved period for casting votes.

[Phil Titola]

I don't think anybody who is going to die over the term of whatever they voted for should count.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

We don't know for sure that unaffiliated voters are libs voting for Colyer / against KK. But that seems to be the assumption both campaigns are making, and it seems to make sense to me. But how strong an edge, if it even exists, is unknowable. The drama!

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

I don't think anybody who is going to die over the term of whatever they voted for should count.

The article doesn't explain why the dead person's provisional vote didn't count, but I presume it had something to do with not being able to get necessary followup info on that vote to authenticate it.

[cfbandyman]

I don't think anybody who is going to die over the term of whatever they voted for should count.

The article doesn't explain why the dead person's provisional vote didn't count, but I presume it had something to do with not being able to get necessary followup info on that vote to authenticate it.

This is why election receipts should be a thing and like the only real thing needed.