Can't wait to see who wins this race. I'm not a big fan of Estes, and don't know anything about the Thompson other than he appears to toe the liberal party line on most issues. I voted for Estes but won't be terribly disappointed on a micro-level if he loses.
But at a macro level this race is fascinating. Trump won this district 60-33. This could be a good test of whether the recent town hall protests are truly indicative of a liberal backlash, or just the same liberal professional protesters. My hypothesis is that it is the latter.
Here's how I break down who has the advantages in this race.....
- Money: Push. Both national parties have poured money into this race.
- Demographics: Estes. This is a reliably red district.
- Candidate: Thompson. He is viewed as an outsider and (I hear) has run better ads. Estes is dull and has run a lackluster campaign.
- Headwinds: Thompson. An unpopular GOP governor and Trump's fading popularity threaten to suppress GOP turnout.
- Enthusiasm: Thompson. Special elections, in particular, can swing wildly based upon voter turnout. It is likely that libs are more enthusiastic about this race than the pubs.
So Thompson has every advantage in this race except for the big one: basic demographics. Therefore, if Estes wins comfortably (10+ points) I think that supports my hypothesis and is good news for the GOP and bad news for the liberals. If Thompson wins comfortably, that's great news for the liberals (but that's not going to happen).
If the race is closer than 10 points.... I'm not sure what that means. It depends upon which of Thompson's advantages was most responsible. The fact that he is a more appealing candidate? Estes being dragged down by Brownback? Or is there really a liberal electoral backlash swelling?
I believe there are a few more special elections in the next few months to better test the theory. I wouldn't put too much stock in just this race unless it's a blowout either way.