Author Topic: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined? (Read 21560 times)

steve dave · « **Reply #125 on:** November 03, 2016, 09:54:42 AM »

Quote from: libliblibliblibliblib on November 03, 2016, 09:50:06 AM

Sd, I would vote for barry over my write in person

everyone would

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #126 on:** November 03, 2016, 09:57:33 AM »

An inanimate object would win this election in a landslide, and I'd vote 3 times for that object.

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #127 on:** November 03, 2016, 10:04:48 AM »

It's anecdotes like (trumpers $100k+ to MS church hilltards only $13k) and (not spraking up for fear of being attacked by dnc goons) that have me convinced the polling numbers are alllllllll wrong, and trump has a decisive advantage.
-PanSysPublican

Trim · « **Reply #128 on:** November 03, 2016, 10:17:45 AM »

I've lost interest since the debate season and crazy crap was happening ever-y-day. I probably can't be bothered to even write something silly in and mail the ballot back.

Emo EMAW · « **Reply #129 on:** November 03, 2016, 10:18:22 AM »

Would Danny Trejo win before these two? I'm not so sure. Too scary.

CNS · « **Reply #130 on:** November 03, 2016, 10:36:23 AM »

I would vote for him on the condition that he wore the Desperado knife vest at all times while conduction the biz of our country.

Trim · « **Reply #131 on:** November 03, 2016, 10:41:20 AM »

Goddamn, our ad game is on point.

star seed 7 · « **Reply #132 on:** November 03, 2016, 10:42:07 AM »

Danny would cuck putin so hard

CNS · « **Reply #133 on:** November 03, 2016, 10:43:05 AM »

Those algorithms are scary.

8manpick · « **Reply #134 on:** November 03, 2016, 10:59:09 AM »

Quote from: Emo EMAW on November 03, 2016, 10:18:22 AM

Would Danny Trejo win before these two? I'm not so sure. Too scary.

Well he's a criminal, so he could run Democrat

star seed 7 · « **Reply #135 on:** November 03, 2016, 11:00:26 AM »

He paid his debt to society, no need to bring that up man #trejo4prez

CNS · « **Reply #136 on:** November 03, 2016, 11:05:28 AM »

If escaping from a plane crash and working with a whole plane full of criminals to maintain their freedom is paying his debt, then yep. That said, I am still good with it. I may want to add another condition in that Nick Cage has to be his VP.

catastrophe · « **Reply #137 on:** November 03, 2016, 12:21:37 PM »

Quote from: 8manpick on November 03, 2016, 10:59:09 AM

Quote from: Emo EMAW on November 03, 2016, 10:18:22 AM
Would Danny Trejo win before these two? I'm not so sure. Too scary.

Well he's a criminal, so he could run Democrat

Wrong food group. Would have to be Republican or independent.

Panjandrum · « **Reply #138 on:** November 03, 2016, 01:24:47 PM »

Quote

UPDATED, 11/3/16, 10:00 AM

All the rurals still not in, but a deep dive into the Clark numbers soul leave Republicans feeling...blue.

I don't see how Cresent Hardy survives, and Danny Tarkanian needs a miracle. The state Senate races look bad for the GOP, as do the Assembly ones. My only caveat on the Carson City contests is the personal touch still matters.

On the presidential (and maybe applies to the U.S. Senate, too), some math still holds:

----Both candidates get 90 percent of base and split indies: Clinton by 4, 29,000 votes

----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 10: Clinton by 2, 17,000 votes

----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 20: Clinton by 3,000 votes

Note: Trump is not going to get 90 percent of the GOP base, and with all of those votes banked even before the Comey letter, it's almost impossible for him to win indies by 20. (Romney won indies by 7.) You see his challenge.

If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don't dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can't lose Nevada. Solid lean Clinton right now.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

sys · « **Reply #139 on:** November 03, 2016, 01:26:29 PM »

that nevada blog is a great find, panj.

Panjandrum · « **Reply #140 on:** November 03, 2016, 02:13:04 PM »

Quote from: sys on November 03, 2016, 01:26:29 PM

that nevada blog is a great find, panj.

I see so many polls debunking early voting numbers, but I think this guy makes really strong inferences to how things play out. That could be due to how Nevada releases good, meaningful data.

He's kind of on the front end of election coverage in a new era of early voting. Kind of cool stuff.

Panjandrum · « **Reply #141 on:** November 03, 2016, 02:16:22 PM »

New Hampshire is basically deadlocked and probably the leakiest part of her firewall now.

Trump is headed there twice before election day, and Obama is going. The two polls out today, which are solid polls, has Trump +1 and tied.

It's moot if she holds Colorado and Nevada, but New Hampshire/Nevada is what this thing may come down to if Florida and NC goes Trump.

star seed 7 · « **Reply #142 on:** November 03, 2016, 02:23:03 PM »

We really need to get rid of this electoral college bullshit

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #143 on:** November 03, 2016, 02:47:58 PM »

Quote from: libliblibliblibliblib on November 03, 2016, 02:23:03 PM

We really need to get rid of this electoral college bullshit

#4everTrump

Trim · « **Reply #144 on:** November 03, 2016, 02:48:36 PM »

Quote from: libliblibliblibliblib on November 03, 2016, 02:23:03 PM

We really need to get rid of this electoral college bullshit

v2.0

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #145 on:** November 03, 2016, 02:56:03 PM »

New Hampshire +5
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/pres16/

Nevada +6
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

Some guy with a blog: Hillary is unbeatable.

sys · « **Reply #146 on:** November 03, 2016, 03:13:06 PM »

sorry, your new hampshire poll was from all the way back at 11:51, and the 2:38 poll has it tied. your nevada poll is from yesterday, so lolmaoai, obviously.

Panjandrum · « **Reply #147 on:** November 03, 2016, 03:27:11 PM »

Per 538, four polls this week have Clinton leading with a +4.5 average, three polls have Trump at +2.67, and two are tied.

Based on the blog guy, what's likely is that she wins by about 1-3 points based on how demographics break, so it kind of lines up, and definitely within the margin of error.

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #148 on:** November 03, 2016, 05:22:16 PM »

That Reuters poll that skews Hilltards margin (+7 most recently) has never shown trump getting more than 38% of the popular vote, which seems highly unlikely by a fairly wide margin. I think even nevada blogger guy would agree. Probably time to trash that one.

Panjandrum · « **Reply #149 on:** November 03, 2016, 05:40:58 PM »

There are so many polls you can trash, if that's what you want to do. That's why 538 is so great. They don't trash it, but they adjust for polling bias and weight based on the quality of the poll.

A Marist poll today came out that says Trump is up one in Georgia. That's a quality poll. Is Georgia really that competitive? Probably not. But the same methodology put him up five in AZ, which makes sense.

FWIW, that's the third poll this week in GA that has Trump either tied or up one with Clinton.