Author Topic: Is this the earliest a Presidential election outcome has been determined? (Read 21467 times)

SdK · « **Reply #75 on:** October 31, 2016, 10:45:15 AM »

At least Hilary as as weird middle name like Rodham.

star seed 7 · « **Reply #76 on:** October 31, 2016, 10:59:16 AM »

Quote from: Sundance»¤«Kid on October 31, 2016, 10:45:15 AM

At least Hilary as as weird middle name like Rodham.

It's Diane

CNS · « **Reply #77 on:** October 31, 2016, 11:00:19 AM »

Donald Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho Trump

sys · « **Reply #78 on:** October 31, 2016, 04:41:12 PM »

Quote

Clinton’s popular vote lead is down to 4.7 percentage points in our forecast, as compared with 5.7 percentage points on Friday and 7.1 percentage points two weeks ago. And Trump’s chances of winning are 24 percent in the polls-only model, up from 19 percent on Friday and 12 percent two weeks ago. Trump’s chances are 26 percent in the polls-plus model, which is converging with polls-only.

It’s not easy to tell how much of that shift reflects a reaction to Comey, as compared with a race that had been tightening already. And it remains the case that the margin is closing because Trump is gaining ground from undecided voters and third-party candidates, rather than Clinton losing support. The fact is, though, that the data we’ve gotten during the past few days is consistent with a reasonably competitive race — although one in which Clinton has the advantage — especially given the significant disagreement in the polls and the relatively high uncertainty surrounding the polling this year.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-comey-or-not-trump-continues-to-narrow-gap-with-clinton/

wetwillie · « **Reply #79 on:** October 31, 2016, 06:36:30 PM »

Imagine how narrow the gap will be after that video surfaces of her disparaging minoroties

sys · « **Reply #80 on:** November 01, 2016, 04:39:16 PM »

direct slap to chum1's fat face:

Quote

If I can be a bit pedantic, the race isn’t that close. But it’s highly uncertain.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-a-scale-of-1-to-10-how-much-should-democrats-panic/

chum1 · « **Reply #81 on:** November 01, 2016, 07:27:34 PM »

I'll take that as confirmation that when he uses "%" he's not talking about probability.

chum1 · « **Reply #82 on:** November 01, 2016, 07:46:23 PM »

I just started reading.

Quote

Who knows how that FBI stuff is going to strike people over the next week, right?

GMAFB. Everything on that blog translates to "keep reading this blog!"

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #83 on:** November 01, 2016, 09:51:36 PM »

Latest poll has Trump up 7 in NC. Up 4 in NV. Will be intetesting to see the CO post fbi poll.

sys · « **Reply #84 on:** November 01, 2016, 10:38:55 PM »

also has clinton up 6 in ohio and up 8 in ks, so prolly a wash.

star seed 7 · « **Reply #85 on:** November 01, 2016, 10:40:00 PM »

Rage Against the McKee · « **Reply #86 on:** November 01, 2016, 11:26:02 PM »

Clinton winning KS would make for great people watching at work Wednesday morning.

stunted · « **Reply #87 on:** November 01, 2016, 11:51:46 PM »

http://www.oddschecker.com/insight/politics/20161028-us-election-is-donald-trump-the-new-brexit

REMEMBER BREXIT

420seriouscat69 · « **Reply #88 on:** November 02, 2016, 08:17:11 AM »

Quote from: Rage Against the McKee on November 01, 2016, 11:26:02 PM

Clinton winning KS would make for great people watching at work Wednesday morning.

It will never happen as long as we're alive. Minus Brownback eventually getting the boot.

Rage Against the McKee · « **Reply #89 on:** November 02, 2016, 08:18:04 AM »

Quote from: WackyCat08 on November 02, 2016, 08:17:11 AM

Quote from: Rage Against the McKee on November 01, 2016, 11:26:02 PM
Clinton winning KS would make for great people watching at work Wednesday morning.
It will never happen as long as we're alive. Minus Brownback eventually getting the boot.

Kansas has a 2 term limit on governors, so Brownback won't be getting voted out, either.

420seriouscat69 · « **Reply #90 on:** November 02, 2016, 08:19:49 AM »

So my point stands.

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #91 on:** November 02, 2016, 09:03:35 AM »

Quote from: sys on November 01, 2016, 10:38:55 PM

also has clinton up 6 in ohio and up 8 in ks, so prolly a wash.

Weird lie

sys · « **Reply #92 on:** November 02, 2016, 12:03:53 PM »

not a lie. the most recent updates for each state at the time posted. your assertion about trump up 4 in nevada was incorrect, however. it was clinton up 4 in nevada.

Panjandrum · « **Reply #93 on:** November 02, 2016, 01:09:42 PM »

Speaking of Nevada, a reporter out there runs the numbers on early voting they get from the Secretary of State. So far, with three more days of early voting to go (including today), the Democrats hold a 33k lead.

Sounds like their goal is 40k, but 50k would make it hard for Republicans to overcome on election day.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #94 on:** November 02, 2016, 01:15:43 PM »

Quote from: sys on November 02, 2016, 12:03:53 PM

not a lie. the most recent updates for each state at the time posted. your assertion about trump up 4 in nevada was incorrect, however. it was clinton up 4 in nevada.

Weirder lie

sys · « **Reply #95 on:** November 02, 2016, 01:20:58 PM »

good link, panj. that was interesting to read.

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #96 on:** November 02, 2016, 02:11:13 PM »

Latest cnn poll has trump up 6 in NV, even with Johnson bogarting 5. Prior poll had him up 4.

Team Hillcrook needs to reset their voter fraud goals in NV. 50k probably won't cut it.

Canary · « **Reply #97 on:** November 02, 2016, 02:18:04 PM »

Quote from: Sundance»¤«Kid on October 31, 2016, 10:45:15 AM

At least Hilary as as weird middle name like Rodham.

Rodham is her maiden name.

sys · « **Reply #98 on:** November 02, 2016, 02:19:56 PM »

same cnn poll had clinton up in penn and florida, so they don't really even need to bother counting the votes in nevada.

Panjandrum · « **Reply #99 on:** November 02, 2016, 02:25:26 PM »

Quote from: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on November 02, 2016, 02:11:13 PM

Latest cnn poll has trump up 6 in NV, even with Johnson bogarting 5. Prior poll had him up 4.

Team Hillcrook needs to reset their voter fraud goals in NV. 50k probably won't cut it.

Polls in Nevada are likely voters. In the 538 blog that lead me to the link I posted, they said that a large segment of the Latino vote is not represented (15% of electorate) because they are generally hard to poll.

Some of the observers on the ground in Nevada feel the polls are not accurately reflecting the reality of the situation for that fact.

But it could be that there will be a very large Election Day turnout for Trump to get closer to the polls. Hard to say.

Polls in Florida have been very kind to Hillary today. SurveyMonkey and CNN/ORC both have her at +3 and +2 respectively.

Four polls have been released in PA today, and they range from +2 to +6 for Clinton. CNN/ORC and Monmouth both said +4.