Author Topic: You guys realize Donald Trump will be your next president right? (Read 18203 times)

stunted · « **Reply #100 on:** September 15, 2016, 12:55:46 PM »

for example pennsylvania only has 1 poll in september and it's rated B and only goes to the 7th. so for 538, their pennsylvania thing doesn't factor in her cough or her collapse.

chum1 · « **Reply #101 on:** September 15, 2016, 01:16:04 PM »

I mean, I guess you could choose to both throw out all historical data and ignore Electoral College votes on the basis of a cough.

stunted · « **Reply #102 on:** September 15, 2016, 01:26:52 PM »

stunted · « **Reply #103 on:** September 15, 2016, 01:27:37 PM »

chum right now:

renocat · « **Reply #104 on:** September 15, 2016, 02:53:10 PM »

I just read a Politico article that said the IRS code has provisions that allow a President to secure the tax returns of a taxpayer and release them to the public. Desperate times may cause for desperate action now that Hillary is getting flushed. It is scary that the leftonistists are even suggesting this. Imagine the MeanQueen with this power.

chum1 · « **Reply #105 on:** September 15, 2016, 05:40:27 PM »

Quote

This is a snapshot of current polls, and addresses the hypothetical question of who would win an election held today.

http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/

stunted · « **Reply #106 on:** September 15, 2016, 06:09:50 PM »

chum right now:

star seed 7 · « **Reply #107 on:** September 15, 2016, 06:11:02 PM »

Man, that's deep

chum1 · « **Reply #108 on:** September 15, 2016, 06:28:56 PM »

Quote from: libliblibliblibliblib on September 15, 2016, 06:11:02 PM

Man, that's deep

reddit, man.

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #109 on:** September 15, 2016, 09:55:23 PM »

Trump is definitely closing the gap. Never thought Nevada or NH would be in play for him. Kind of surprised he seems to be stuck in PA and MI considering how well he's doing in OH.

gatoveintisiete · « **Reply #110 on:** September 15, 2016, 10:10:31 PM »

I heard Michigan was inside the margin of error in latest poll

wetwillie · « **Reply #111 on:** September 15, 2016, 10:12:18 PM »

his biggest obstacle are the debates. I just don't see how he survives that.

gatoveintisiete · « **Reply #112 on:** September 15, 2016, 10:14:46 PM »

He took away the birther talk today, he may be setting Hill up for the debates when he drops the bomb that birtherism was born out of the Clinton 08 campaign, if he has proof it will be the knockout punch.

stunted · « **Reply #113 on:** September 15, 2016, 10:59:39 PM »

Quote from: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on September 15, 2016, 09:55:23 PM

Trump is definitely closing the gap. Never thought Nevada or NH would be in play for him. Kind of surprised he seems to be stuck in PA and MI considering how well he's doing in OH.

i covered that

Quote from: stunted on September 15, 2016, 12:55:46 PM

for example pennsylvania only has 1 poll in september and it's rated B and only goes to the 7th. so for 538, their pennsylvania thing doesn't factor in her cough or her collapse.

Quote from: wetwillie on September 15, 2016, 10:12:18 PM

his biggest obstacle are the debates. I just don't see how he survives that.

personally, i don't see how she survives it, but you're biased, i'm ~~biased~~ based (reddit meme-drop

). from my pov, trump is far more persuasive, charismatic, and can speak off the cuff. whereas hillary has to rely on the teleprompter and doesn't respond well to tough questions. plus the whole health thing - the debates will be very stressful with her low energy. you can say trump has a short fuse, but you could say the same for hillary (and the stories of her being a terrible person off camera). what is it, policies? or do you think she can beat him speaking-wise (aka out-alphaing)?

chum1 · « **Reply #114 on:** September 15, 2016, 11:04:35 PM »

Debates won't matter. Trump needs a miracle to win.

SdK · « **Reply #115 on:** September 15, 2016, 11:12:41 PM »

After watching him on Fallon, I think he will win.

K-S-U-Wildcats! · « **Reply #116 on:** September 15, 2016, 11:14:11 PM »

Quote from: chum1 on September 15, 2016, 11:04:35 PM

Debates won't matter. Trump needs a miracle to win.

He's winning now. Now is a long way from November, but he's winning now. He doesn't need a miracle - he needs to continue to run a disciplined campaign (it has been quite focused in recent weeks) and beef up his vote harvesting.

wetwillie · « **Reply #117 on:** September 15, 2016, 11:16:57 PM »

Quote from: chum1 on September 15, 2016, 11:04:35 PM

Debates won't matter. Trump needs a miracle to win.

Him having substantive policy discussion would be a miracle.

chum1 · « **Reply #118 on:** September 16, 2016, 07:11:11 AM »

Quote from: K-S-U-Wildcats! on September 15, 2016, 11:14:11 PM

Quote from: chum1 on September 15, 2016, 11:04:35 PM
Debates won't matter. Trump needs a miracle to win.

He's winning now. Now is a long way from November, but he's winning now. He doesn't need a miracle - he needs to continue to run a disciplined campaign (it has been quite focused in recent weeks) and beef up his vote harvesting.

I'm not following how a lead change in polls for a couple of states entails Electoral College wins in all swing states plus a few blue states. I also don't see how debates would entail that either - again, outside of a miracle.

K-S-U-Wildcats! · « **Reply #119 on:** September 16, 2016, 07:38:31 AM »

Quote from: chum1 on September 16, 2016, 07:11:11 AM

Quote from: K-S-U-Wildcats! on September 15, 2016, 11:14:11 PM
Quote from: chum1 on September 15, 2016, 11:04:35 PM
Debates won't matter. Trump needs a miracle to win.

He's winning now. Now is a long way from November, but he's winning now. He doesn't need a miracle - he needs to continue to run a disciplined campaign (it has been quite focused in recent weeks) and beef up his vote harvesting.

I'm not following how a lead change in polls for a couple of states entails Electoral College wins in all swing states plus a few blue states. I also don't see how debates would entail that either - again, outside of a miracle.

The most recent polling in key sowing states (OH, FL, and MI) can be extrapolated to other swing states with older polling. He's opening up a considerable lead in Ohio. He's within the margin of error in Michigan! You can use common sense, or just keep your head in the sand. Doesn't matter because the election isn't being held today anyway. But when you do the Miracle Max routine you sound a bit silly.

chum1 · « **Reply #120 on:** September 16, 2016, 07:45:44 AM »

Quote from: K-S-U-Wildcats! on September 16, 2016, 07:38:31 AM

Quote from: chum1 on September 16, 2016, 07:11:11 AM
Quote from: K-S-U-Wildcats! on September 15, 2016, 11:14:11 PM
Quote from: chum1 on September 15, 2016, 11:04:35 PM
Debates won't matter. Trump needs a miracle to win.

He's winning now. Now is a long way from November, but he's winning now. He doesn't need a miracle - he needs to continue to run a disciplined campaign (it has been quite focused in recent weeks) and beef up his vote harvesting.

I'm not following how a lead change in polls for a couple of states entails Electoral College wins in all swing states plus a few blue states. I also don't see how debates would entail that either - again, outside of a miracle.

The most recent polling in key sowing states (OH, FL, and MI) can be extrapolated to other swing states with older polling. He's opening up a considerable lead in Ohio. He's within the margin of error in Michigan! You can use common sense, or just keep your head in the sand. Doesn't matter because the election isn't being held today anyway. But when you do the Miracle Max routine you sound a bit silly.

I don't think you can extrapolate. I don't think he wins if you do extrapolate. It's not common sense. It's math.

chum1 · « **Reply #121 on:** September 16, 2016, 07:51:01 AM »

Let's see what the Princeton guy says today.

Unchanged. Fascinating.

ChiComCat · « **Reply #122 on:** September 16, 2016, 08:16:47 AM »

Trump's definitely doing better. This could be an ebb in Trump's direction or could be the correction of a long Hillary peak. Hillary is going to hammer him on having no substantial policy on anything during the debates. I don't think the debates are going to go well for him as 1v1 will give the moderators/Clinton enough time to question the stuff he says. She is no doubt homeworking the crap out of it whereas Trump is more likely wing it.

stunted · « **Reply #123 on:** September 16, 2016, 08:55:59 AM »

fair point.

wetwillie · « **Reply #124 on:** September 16, 2016, 09:06:17 AM »

Quote from: ChiCat on September 16, 2016, 08:16:47 AM

Trump's definitely doing better. This could be an ebb in Trump's direction or could be the correction of a long Hillary peak. Hillary is going to hammer him on having no substantial policy on anything during the debates. I don't think the debates are going to go well for him as 1v1 will give the moderators/Clinton enough time to question the stuff he says. She is no doubt homeworking the crap out of it whereas Trump is more likely wing it.

I'm sorry but the debates simply just don't matter