As long as the Pac 12 stays quiet, I think the Big 12 can do no worse than stay in the strong position we are already in. I think the only wild card for the Big 12 is that stupid west coast conference. OU (and OSU) would be in the Pac 12 right now if they hadn't said 'request denied' last fall. And Texas made an attempt at the Pac last year as well, and would also be in that conference if they hadn't said no. (Actually, they said no to the LHN rather than Texas, but it amounts to the same thing.)
If the Pac 12 will just stay on the sidelines during this summer's Conference Armageddon III, the Big 12 will stay intact and may even pick up a couple of worthy additions. If the Pac 12 gets involved, I think all hell breaks loose. If they change their stance on the LHN, or if they re-open the lines of communication with the Oklahoma schools, I shudder to think what could happen.
The six year grant of rights keeps us safe for now
People keep talking about our grant of rights as though it is ironclad or something. The Big East supposedly had an ironclad contract that required 27-month notice before departure... and WVU left with about a six month notice. If Texas decided they want out of the Big 12, they could do it. They would have to pay for it, but the grant of rights certainly wouldn't stop them.
And the grant of rights does nothing if we see a mass exodus like a couple of years ago. If UT takes TT, OU and OSU with them and another school or two can find a home somewhere (WVU-ACC?, TCU-SEC?, KU-ACC?), they can simply dissolve the Big 12 and the grant of rights becomes meaningless. And if Texas is leaving, they're certainly not going to do it alone.
I think there's a pretty good chance the Big 12 will be fine this off season, but I wouldn't put any serious money on it right now.
If the Big 12 is able to attract a high-profile school or two, then our odds of staying alive skyrocket, IMO. Louisville doesn't count as high-profile in my book, but FSU and/or Miami would.