Notre Dame preferring ACC seems like a good thing. They'll most likely hold that spot open as long as they can. So that keeps the Big Ten at twelve and the ACC at fourteen until further notice. UConn will just have to wait it out as the most likely ACC #16.
The news filtering out about WVU having their application denied by the SEC (and being far down on the list) could be great news or bad news for us, depending on how you look at it. It probably means that Missouri is the most realistic addition (UNC and FSU are probably higher on the list, but won't come due to ACC fortification/expansion). In the short-term, I think that means we're probably stuck with KU, ISU, and Baylor in the Big East merger. There will be seven schools left out of the Big East (Rutgers, UConn, WVU, Cincy, Louisville, TCU, USF). To round it out at twelve, we'll most likely elevate Houston or UCF to get into more markets. If I'm a betting man, I'd go with Houston since we absolutely need Texas presence and this is a Big 12 skewed merger, so the power will most likely reside here. That gives us twelve teams, several decent markets, and all eleven schools had AQ status, so keeping it probably won't be an issue. Also, we'll collect a lot of money in exit fees (assuming the Big 12 is still considered an entity at that time).
After that, I think we have stasis until something significant happens. Two things would probably trigger another round:
1) The BCS changes it's structure - 16 team leagues will probably start lobbying for two automatic BCS bids. Should this happen, the impetus will most likely be for the leagues to go to sixteen, and the 64 team model probably comes into play.
2) Notre Dame is forced to join a conference or face BCS exclusion - This day is coming. ND can exist independently if power is dispersed amongst several conferences, but with a consolidation of dollars and power, and a fairly mediocre Notre Dame not drawing the TV money that Washington State will, I think the time will finally come where they join a conference. We always assumed Big Ten, but I get the ACC if there is still an allowance of third tier rights distribution. One thing I never really considered was the fact that of all of the BCS conferences, the ACC has the most private institutions as well (4). It also keeps ND in the thick of it in the Eastern Time Zone, which the ACC now almost totally controls.
Should #1 happen, and I think it's likely, and Mizzou goes to the SEC, I think we're in. They'll lobby for Kansas, and with Kansas comes Kansas State. I know most of you don't agree with me on this, but I think this is probably more likely than not. Even if that weren't the case, I believe the Big Ten will have to start looking to round out, and either KU goes there or we do. Their options, without looking at a South Florida, TCU, etc. are absolutely minimal. We'd be one of the two or three most likely targets out there. Academically, we're higher than most of the BCS schools left on the table, we'll have competitive facilities, and geographically, we'd fit in either the SEC or Big Ten.
So, short term, we go to merger/reject conference. If the structure shifts, we'll find a home in either the Big Ten or SEC. In the meantime, we will have to be aggressive and build our portfolio, academically and athletically, to justify those moves.
